Friday September 13th

Friday the 13th !

I have spoken for the last few days about a busy weekend and it will be, with 12+ previews over Saturday/Sunday and what looks like at least three 1.75 unit selections at present, but a bit of a low key start today, as I only have a couple of Ligue 2 matches to discuss.

The New York Jets made it 4/4 on the American Football for the new season and I am working hard on an outright selection for the Super Bowl, but there are a couple of key matches I want to see first, better to take a couple of points lower and be 100% sure that is the team I want to be on.

However, it is the yesterday's Brazilian game I really want to talk about, my round up notes were.......

However, I think the -1.25 goal line is too much, so will be looking for a little better. Inter did not take the lead until after the 55th minute in their last two wins and they have been especially slow starters this season through the opening 15 minutes, they are an eyecatching (9-3 goals scored/conceded) through 16-30 minutes and a very high 44% of all their goals have come in the 30 minutes before the break. So you have the option to hold off for 15 minutes or so, hope they are not ahead and look for a better price either to win the game , or the first half, if the criteria is met, I would opt for 1.25 units. You/we can do really well with these types of bets long term, it was possible to get a far better postion on Cruzeiro yesterday for example and once we are fully up and running in France, England and Spain, I can give you a lot of similar positions to take advantage of.

Vitoria scored after 8 minutes or so, when we knew they were dangerous and at that time the hosts were 2.04 + to win the rest of the first half ( to draw or lead at the break) and effectively 2.15 to win the game. We said they had scored 44% of all goals between the 16-45 minute, including nine between 16 and 30 and they scored twice (in the 27th and 29th minute), leading 2-1 at the half.

The final score was 2-2, but the half time option was a winner and that was what, personally, I opted for (see below) and even the 90 minute option, meant you were betting them just to win @ 2.15 as opposed to giving up 1.25 goals ten minutes earlier, at sub 1.90 odds, which is obviously putting yourself in a far better position and one which long term, you will greatly benefit from. There is huge value in these "in play" options, but I cannot always lay everything out for you ( not at at 2 euros per day !) you have to give it a little thought. The beauty of betting "in running" is that you have all day, or at least until kick off (and beyond) to make your decision, you can sometimes get the same odds or better without your team needing to win the game and usually, the longer you leave it, the better the odds become and few matches are decided in the first half, despite what happened yesterday.

Next newsletter at 10.00 UK time Saturday.

France Ligue 2:

Arles-Caen

Hosts have failed to score in four of their last five competitive starts and shortage of firepower is a problem area from last season ( only two clubs scored fewer goals) that has clearly not been addressed. They are a perfect 2-0-0 at home this season, but were gifted the first of those and one (or two ) swallows do not a summer make and Angers had previously won just 14 matches in total over the last three seasons. They lost a number of players in the summer, including defensive midfielder Romain Rocchi (33-6-3 last season) and centre back Bakary Soro (32-0-1), plus a whole host of on loan/fringe players and I think they have made this area a priority, which has hampered any longer term plans to increase their offensive threat.

We have spoken about Caen a couple of times, I think the most relevant notes were ahead of their win at Laval....

Caen came up six points short last season, it was a strange campaign ,they were strong enough at home in terms of wins, but lost five and needed to grind out a point at times, on the road, it was the reverse, just four losses, but too many (9) draws ! They did well for us on the odd occasion we backed them in away starts and it was hard to put a handle on what exactly went wrong, defensively only champions Monaco conceded fewer and they scored as many as promoted Guingamp. They lost key midfielder Laurent Agouazi( 21-2-2) for much of mid season and collected 1.81 points when he played, 1.39 without him, they missed the Algerian's experience in midfield and they have addressed this potential problem by signing Jérôme Rothen (28-3-9 for Bastia in Ligue 1, with six of those goals and assists coming on the road), he was hugely influential in Bastia's 201101 promotion campaign and looks very good business. Left winger Mathias Autret has joined on loan from Lorient and right winger Jonathan Kodjia from Reims, all four started in the impressive 3-1 defeat of another prpmotion contender in Dijon last week. Kodjia had an impressive season at struggling Amiens last season and has hit the ground running with a goal and assist last week and a brace of goals in the 2-0 midweek cup defeat of Metz.

This looks a good fixture for Caen to start their away days, four of their six road wins last season came before the end of October, including a 2-1 win here.

They won that 2-1 and have perhaps not got quite what they deserved from matches since, despite which, they are only a point adrift of third place and they are one of the clubs I feel will have benefited from the mini break, a chance to regroup and rethink a few things. They were particularly unlucky to lose at Troyes in their last road game and I was very impressed by their energy, desire shown and the tempo that they played at, if they play every away game in similar fashion, with what is a talented group, they are not going to lose too many more games this season. They arrive without Jérôme Rothen (see above) but have enough offensive options and it will give Faycal Fajr (30-3-7  ...2012/13), who has replaced Rothen from the bench in the last two starts, a chance to re-establish himself and I expect a big showing from him. 1.25 units Caen -0.25 ball 2.03 asian line/Ibramarket.

Arles-Avignon : Butelle, Roque - Cantini, Quintin, Abdelhamid, Fortes, Givet, Cardy, Rodriguez, Gigot, Savanier, Delclos, Omrani, Nabab, Dalé, Aleksic.

Caen: Perquis, Bosmel - Appiah, Wague, Pierre, Saad, Seube, Raineau - Agouazi, Kante, Fajr, Lemar, Kodjia, Autret - Duhamel, Koita.

To read the rest of today's notes, click here.

Good Luck.