I will start with the Championship, Fulham were the second best team in the table, it does sometimes lie and they might have also been top 2 in 2016-17 . They were unbeaten in 23 games (18-5-0) until losing at Birmingham City on the final day when automatic promotion was in their own hands and their total of 56 points over the final 23 games is massive and played out across a full season would smash the record number ever gained. Immediately before they went on that run they lost 3-1 at Brentford, but I wrote afterwards that they were the best team I had seen at Griffin Park through the first 45 minutes , they made some tactical errors after the break that day, but barely took a wrong step or backward glance after that, at least until the closing weeks of the regular season.

However, they came into the post season 12 months ago in similar circumstances and were again playing what was probably the worst team amongst teh final 4 and lost across two legs and they are under perhaps even more pressure this time round. Failure to reach the promised land is going to almost certainly mean selling their two best players and whilst they will get big money for both, they will lose their parachute payments this off season and overall, will be much weaker on the pitch and in a worse financial situation off it, with assets sold to remain where they are/were and potential issues down the line . The other three clubs are all 'bigger' in terms of support and history and whilst they have been the best team, I am not sure they should really even be much of a favourite in the final if they get there and have County to get past first and as poor as the Rams have been through the second half of the season (they were awful at GP), they have found their best form of the season through their last five halves of football (eight goals) and come into this on a high, with Fulham looking to have peaked and not at the same level over the last month.

Add in the fact that at odds of 2.60 to win outright is plenty short enough with three games to play and 2.75 for County to qualify from the semis feels 'wrong' regardless of result, the Championship is not like that, it is too competitive and games close. Derby and Villa also have two of the three oldest ( most experienced ?) squads in the division and that might stand them in good stead given the pressure of the post season.