Championship: Cardiff City- Bristol City
We have discussed both teams in the last week. I sided with Cardiff for their midweek trip to Ipswich ......
I have to give Town a little credit, as they obviously have something about them, even if it is only luck ! I have been speaking on and off all season about them not being as good as results suggest and that remains the case, ahead of a New Year trip to Fulham my notes included ............
The same numbers discussed above also have Ipswich Town has having massively overachieved, currently 11th, they are lower mid table at the very best and possibly worst. Early season results where they made the most of very few chances created, which has really been the case since August, will probably be enough to keep them out of the relegation dog fight, but they are little better than that IMO.
Town lost that 4-1, but have won twice in 2018 from 7 starts, scoring six goals, still making the most of very limited opportunities. They are ranked 20th for offense, 22nd for defense and are 13th. Cardiff are not adventurous enough for my money, but have promotion in their own hands with 14 games to play, the win tonight would give them a four point advanatge over Aston Villa and leave them in a very strong position and take some of the pressure off the upcoming "derby" with Bristol City this weekend. The visitors are ranked top four both offensively and defensively and it is hard to argue that they are in a false position, but they are certainly not a better team than Fulham for example. Both teams are managed by tough, hard to like , old school coaches who will have their team well organised, but models suggest that City will almost certainly create more and defend fewer chances and look at least as good as the 11 places and 16 points separating them and possible quite a bit more. Neil Warnock has a 6-2-1 record in his last nine starts against Mick McCarthy coached teams and should add to that record.
They won that 1-0, it was a scrappy encounter with quite a few chances, but a lot of wayward passes and shooting, but it was all about the result for the Bluebirds and the points mean they stay second regardless today, but would open up a four point lead again today with the win and having still to travel to third placed Aston Villa, I think they would like that edge as long as possible and it is worth gambling for the three points.
I went "over" for Bristol City's trip to Leeds last Sunday ......
Leeds should add Sky to their name as they seem to be televised every single week !
United are down to 11th and would need to win by two goals to move up a place and above the mighty, mighty Bees ( I always write it with a double "mighty" as a well known Brentford supporter says that with the second mighty in a strange high pitched voice, which amuses me for some reason !). City are in the final promotion spot and will stay there regardless , but would open up a five point gap over Preston in 7th with the win. The visitors are more offensive minded than their goals for column shows , but have conceded the most of any top 7 team.
United have no choice but to gamble for the win, but have conceded 10 goals in their last four starts and were riding their luck defensively earlier in the season.
They are both roughly about where I think they should be in the league, City 6th-9th, United 10th- 14th, but this is a huge game for the home side who need to at least make a pretence of getting back into the playoff race and have a new head coach in Paul Heckingbottom, who is the latest to try his hand at this poisoned chalice of a job, leaving local rivals Barnsley 12 days ago and this will be his home debut. He got an 18 month contract and is United's 10th head coach since February 2012 and the length of the contract hardly signals belief that the revolving door policy is going to change at Elland Road any time soon. Heckingbottom is known for playing good football, but mostly for developing young players, hard to see how he is going to get time here to do what he is best at unless he gets off to a very quick start.
This is a match that I expect to eventually produce goals, but every reason to feel both teams will start cautiously and that the action might come later rather than sooner. City have not conceded a road goal inside the opening 15 minutes all season and only six in total in all starts in the opening third of games and will surely look to silence the home crowd through the early stages. Both teams really opened up after the break at Griffin Park, with three second half goals in each game and there should have been more, each were better on the front foot than defensively and that has continued to be the case whenever I have seen the two subsequently, which is every week on TV in Leeds' case !
City went into an early 2-0 lead with United fighting back after the break, for a share of the spoils in a 2-2 draw. That was their third straight draw and they have only taken three points from four starts and are holding on to 6th only by their fingertips and the inability of the teams below to step up.
This is a "derby", the two teams might be in different countries, but are only 50 minutes apart and really only separated by the River Severn, the longest river in the UK, for the geographical fact of the day ! These are always hard fought encounters, but 11 of the last 13 Championship h2h meetings have gone "over" 2.5 goals , including the reverse fixture this season and we can expect the trend to continue. The visitors will be without suspended midfielder Marlon Pack today, he has missed 11 games since the start of 2017 and the Robins have won just one.
1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
