Taken from today's newsletter: Europa League: Benfica-Newcastle United
Thursday April 4th
Only Europa League for me today, three brief previews, however, we have plenty to get through tomorrow and I will have the normal Friday Ligue 2 previews at 10.00 UK time and a follow up at 16.00 with J League and any other Friday news.
Europa League: Benfica-Newcastle United
We took Benfica outright at 25-1 to 28-1 just seven weeks ago ( that preview is reproduced below) and they are now down to a best priced 5.50. You can opt to close out that bet now for a circa 4.25 point guaranteed profit if you wish, which gives you some idea of the kind of value it offers. The Eagles could hardly be in better form, they have pulled away from Porto at the top of SuperLiga, where they are 20-4-0 domestically and in all competitions they are on a 29 match unbeaten run, winning an incredible 26 of those and have only lost to Barcelona and Spartak Moscow all season and they had enough chances to have won the latter. Now that they have opened up a four point lead at home, which, given their record this season looks enough to secure the title, Benfica will surely be very focused on adding a European title this season, especially given their country's proud record in the competition. They will certainly be pleased with the draw and match up well with Newcastle United who arrive a little shellshocked after a heavy defeat at Manchester City at the weekend, short of midfield options and with only three points separating them from the drop zone and surely more focused on a visit from Fulham at the weekend. After that and the return leg , they face a six pointer with North East rival Sunderland and new boss Paulo Di Canio . It is impossible to see how over the two legs they can handle the very impressive Eagles. I cannot see beyond the home win this evening, but there is no real need for us to bet Benfica, as our outright bet gives us plenty of interest anyway and another slight cause for concern, at least about giving up more than one goal on the asian handica, is that they have won their last three European home ties by exactly a single goal and with Newcastle boss Alan Pardew virtually admitting that he is looking to "park the bus" tonight, a one goal home win is very possible. However, United look fragile at present and have more important domestic games ahead and the goals have dried up for the Magpies with just four in their last six and I don't doubt that the hosts would like the second goal if possible, so, if you did not take the outright bet, 1 unit Benfica -1.25 ball 2.08 would be my minimal pick.
Written Thursday February 14th
The last ten runnings of the Europa League/ UEFA Cup have seen seven winners from the Iberian Peninsula, five Spanish winners and two Portugese, they also supplied four losing finalists between them and all four semi finalists last year, the other three winners came from Eastern Europe, with two Russian winners and one from the Ukraine.
The Eastern teams are at a disadvantage early, coming off their winter break, but once we are in mid/late March, the pendulum swings the other way and they are fresher and at their peak, when others are beginning to tire.
This says as much about how these countries view the competition than anything else, they always show it respect and want to do well. Italian teams have a terrible record and since it was renamed the Europa League, only one has got past the Round of 32 and they lost in the Round of 16.
There are three Serie A teams left in the competition, Lazio, Napoli and Inter, but all have other major objectives for the season and I would offer a word of caution about all of them, not to say that they cannot win/ progress, just that I doubt that they are overly bothered.
The final is in Amsterdam this year and we can expect Ajax to be very motivated, but they might well have to see off Chelsea in the round of 16..
Atletico Madrid and Levante are the only two Spanish teams remaining and are drawn to face each other in the Round of 16, Atletico are looking to win for the third time in four years and given their league position, 12 points behind Barcelona and 11 clear of the fourth placed team, they already look assured of a Champions League spot for next season and I see no reason why they will not again be fully focused and this looks a decent draw for them, they have to be favourites IMO and 8.0 is a perfectly fair price, although a little skinny for my liking in a 32 runner race.
Despite facing a difficult tie with Bayer Leverkusen and going toe to toe with Porto for the domestic title, Benfica keep catching my eye at 29.0 in the outright market, they would play either Dynamo Kiev or Bordeaux next and I would favour them to beat either. They are unbeaten domestically, 14-4-0 and were a little hard done by in the Champions League. They look committed to this and all the big guns have travelled and they do have some very impressive weapons ....
Benfica: Artur Moraes, Paulo Lopes ,Bruno Varela, Melgarejo, Maxi Pereira, Luisinho, Luisão, Garay, Roderick Miranda , Jardel , André Almeida, Ola John, Enzo Perez, Salvio, Matic, Nicolás Gaitán, Urreta , André Gomes, Rodrigo, Lima, Cardozo.
They can field a starting eleven full of internationals and have a very nice mixture of experience and exciting young talent. Garay, Perez and Gaitan were all in the Argentine squad for the recent friendly in Stockholm, Salvio was in the squad for the previous international and is the youngest of the quartet. They have the class to go deep in this if they wish and the squad they have taken to Germany looks a statement of intent.
Leverkusen host Augsburg on Saturday afternoon, what is it with the Bundesliga ? Give them an extra day for goodness sake ! They are going to make some rotation between the two games of course, boss Sami Hyypiä admitted that and also that "a couple of our players have slight problems", refusing to give fiurther details. Almost four thousand visiting supporters have tickets for the game, which will make for a very good atmosphere, if pushed, I like the visitors with the handicap start, but must admit that +0.25 ball at sub 2.0 is not my favourite quote and if we are taking the outright anyway, I am happy to stick with that. 1 unit Benfica to win Europa League outright 26.0 + , there is bigger in a place or two.