France : Ligue 2
Valenciennes- Troyes
As a starting point, these Monday night games have been producing a lot of entertainment and the ten we have had in 2015 have averaged 3.4 goals ( L2 av 2.29), with nine "going" over, both teams have scored in eight and only one has eneded in a draw.
Valenciennes home starts are averaging 2.69 goals and Troyes away games 2.46, both of which are significantly above the L2 mean . It is easy to see this opening up and the wide open spaces here suiting the better footballing team and that is Troyes, we discussed them last week and their need to stop messing around and get this promotion issue done and dusted asap....
Briefly, Troyes are the best team in Ligue 2, a quick look at the league table will tell you that. However, ahead of a result trip to Laval, I spoke about how things were perhaps becoming a little too easy .......Laval let us down last week at Creteil, but are strong at home, at least in terms of avoiding defeat (4-6-0) and did us a favour in their last home game, with a defeat of another promotion challenging team in Dijon. they are a perfect 0-10-0 at home in the first half, drawing all ten starts, this gives them a platform on which to build, ensures they are not chasing the game and that is half the battle when facing Troyes. The league leaders have led at the break in 5 of their 6 away wins and have only won one of the four when they have not led at half time. Troyes have a seven point lead at the top of the table and nine over the 4th placed team, allowing for goal difference those figures are really 8 and 10 respectively and they are coasting towards Ligue 1. However, they are now in a dangerous stage of the season, when concentration could slip and focus will be more acute when they are facing the more obvious promotion rivals, as in their last two home starts, Brest and Sochaux, this is a potential banana skin and a venue where they have struggled in the past. Laval did the double over Troyes last season and drew the reverse fixture 0-0 this time round and I am going to take a chance on the hosts, drawn as much by the big odds on the level ball quote as anything else. This is my "upset" of the day in Ligue 2.
They lost that and have actually only taken five points from their last five starts, including drawing their last two at home, their lead over 4th is now down to six and basically it is time to stop sodding about ! A minor blip could easily become something more and once problems become mental, they can be very hard to address.
Clermont arrive without striker and top scorer Idriss Saadi, they have scored just four goals in the five starts he has missed and five of his eleven goals have come on the road. If both teams are at their best, this is a mismatch, only concern is the loss of ever present home keeper Denis Petric, but maybe we can use that, I do not feel it will change the result, but maybe the hosts will look to keep things a little tighter than usual to begin with. Troyes are 7-5-1 after the break at home and Clermont have collected 18 road points ( winning a second highest five away FH wins) in the first half, just 10 after. Troyes are also a very nice 5-2-0 in games where they are level at half time and I would definitely be looking to bet them at the break if this a draw at that time, however, I feel we do not have to wait that long and I will suggest 1.75 units Troyes -0.75 ball as soon as the "in running" line reaches 2.10, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.
They were a little slow out of the blocks, but ran out comfortable 2-0 winners that day and could open up an eight point lead over the 4th placed team this evening, follow up at home to Creteil on Friday and those Ligue 1 plans could really start to take shape. Denis Petric (see above) is back between the sticks this evening, winger Karim Azamoum is suspended , but they did win 2-0 at Sochaux in the only away start he has missed this season. Valenciennes could open up a six point lead over the drop zone with a win and that would see the number of teams below them in the table double from three to six and would obviously be hugely valuable and possibly worth gambling for. However, they are without virtually their whole midfield tonight ( Kabore, Abriel, Diarra, Enza-Yamissi, Camara, Baradji da Silva etc) and of the four "natural" midfield players named in the squad, three are teenagers (one is just 17yo), have a handful of starts between them and none are what you would call a holding player, this against perhaps the best midfield in L2 is a mismatch of enormous proportions. They do have an offensive threat, but are probably going to have to go long to reach them. I find it argue to argue a case for Valenciennes being able to win this ... 1.75 units Troyes -0.75 ball 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.
Given how these Monday games have played out and how Troyes are going to boss the centre of the park and that the hosts will have to gamble to reach their front men, it is very easy to see goals, last four Valenciennes home games have seen eight in the first half and they have gone on to lose all four with both teams scoring and I strongly fancy a repeat, so BTS and a Troyes win looks solid at 4.50-5.0 ( 0.75 units) as does "over" 1 first half goal ( 1.25 units) 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket. Troyes have won the last two h2h games here 3-1 ( leading at the break in both) and that would be my idea of the most likely scoreline again this evening.
Valenciennes : Charruau, Dupré - Abdelhamid, Ciss, Coulibaly, Fulgini, Guihoata, Lala - Camara, Dompé, Mbenza, Tousart - Le Tallec, Nguette, Poepon, Slidja.
Troyes : Grandel, Petric - Carole, Koné, Martins Pereira, Rincon, Saunier - Ayasse, Court, Darbion, Nivet, Pi - Bekamenga, Bienvenu, Cabot, Jean.
Good Luck
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