WTA: US Open Tennis betting tips ....................
Aug 29, 2019
WTA: US Open Tennis:
Naomi Osaka- Magda Linette
Not going to spend too long on this, Naomi is and always will be "our" girl, I have championed her for so long and we have been rewarded multi times. Including those two big wins here in NY 12 months ago and Melbourne at the turn of the year, so she currently holds both hard court slam titles, here last season she met today's opponent in R1 ............
Notes on clubgowi favourite Naomi Osaka on the website. I have spoken often in the past about her love of night games and the focus being on her in those, that might seem obvious now she has won Indian Wells and the US Open, but less so before and given that she is almost painfully shy off court. The win in New York made her the biggest asian sportswomen or man and placed huge media commitments on her young shoulders and she remains a very youthful, almost unworldly, now 21yo. So, a final in Tokyo was huge considering and she proved her 2019 well being with a run to the Brisbane last 4, which was perfect for build up purposes. She doesn;t need much, was not in great form ahead of the US Open and actually lost to today's opponent Magda Linette in Washington two weeks beforehand, Osaka was a no show that day, the Polish 26 yo has shown us little since , or before for that matter, played way above herself and we can add some revenge and knowledge learned from that meeting into the mix. Linette is 3-12 in first round of slams and I am not sure she will be suited by the long wait to play today and high pressure situation under lights, which will all be new to her.
Osaka won that 4&2 ,a scoreline which was extremely flattering to Linette as, the world number one won 96% of first serve points, 63% on second serve and dropped just 6 points total on her own serve. Linette won the Bronx event last week, but had to come through qualifying, so has played ten matches in two weeks, which is the same as she played in the previous 3 months, she is in career best form, but last week played the level of opponent she thrives against, versus top 20 she is 1-19 over her career and 0-10 against top 10, losing 6 of the last 8 in two sets. Osaka is 32-3 in the last two years versus opponents ranked 51+ and the last nine of those which came in slams were all won in two sets.
2.25 units Naomi Osaka to win 2-0 sets 2.18 Pinnacle /Sportmarket Pro.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -Kiki Bertens
I have no real issues with Kiki Bertens as favourite, she is hugely improved on hard courts and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has struggled with her game in the last six months since back to back quarter finals at the Australian Open and St Petersburg where she lost in three sets to Bertens, which I guess was some kind of revenge for her loss to the Russian in Melbourne , but the two tournaments are not the same level of course, so no revenge at all ! Anyway I was big on AP at the AO and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email. After that meeting I wrote .......... As the score suggests, AP played better the longer the match went and looked what she has and always has had, the potential to be, a top 15-20 player, in the deciding set. Now she meets 24 yo Belarusian Aliaksandra Sasnovich, who was ranked a career high 30 last year, but who has only once gone beyong R3 of a slam in 15 attempts. She has had a good start to her year in Australia with 7 wins so far and a run to the semi final in Sydney where she lost 2&1 to Petra Kvitova, she had a couple of good looking wins on paper there , but against opponents a little out of sorts. Kvitova put her in her place and AP will supply a true test of her abilities. Pavly has 142 career wins versus top 50 opposition, Sasnovich just 35 which highlights their difference in experience at this level, even allowing for age. The two have met twice previously, both times last year on fast surfaces, with AP winning both , including 3&4 in Tokyo late in the season and I find these odds very hard to justify .
Again, I cannot have Pavly's chance as low as 30%, not in a hard court slam. AP has five career slam quarter finals, 3 on hardcourt, Bertens has two last 8's at slams, none on hard and in 14 appearances at the two events has got to R3 just twice and never further. Pavly is just better overall in these events and for me, despite the respective rankings the better hard court player, the two are just six months apart in age by the way.
2 units Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Kiki Bertens 3.61 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Caroline Wozniacki - Danielle Rose Collins
DRC had a very unusual route in the game and a tough background, something we have discussed several times previously, she is a toughie, mentally and physically, but a bit inconsistent and best to follow her once she has found form and she had a breakthrough tournament at the last hard court slam reaching the semis beating a a lot of big names something I spoke of ahead of her QF with the aforementioned Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova..........
DRC came into the AO ranked #35 and has beaten three top 20 ranked opponents in Goerges/Garcia/Kerber, the last two in straight sets, Kerber who had looked good going into that match up, 0&2, Garcia 3&2 and those are eyecatching scorelines, regardless of the two names being largely "no shows". DRC has a very good record for a newcomer on Tour versus top 20 opponents, she has been less successful against those ranked 21-50 like herself (1-6 on hardcourts) and Pavlyuchenkova and maybe she likes the role of underdog, when the level of expectation is lowered. DRC is also 0-3 versus Russians ranked top 100 and AP is 60-30 in slams versus players ranked 21+, 10 of her last 13 losses in that category have come in three sets, but that is not how Collins usually wins. I often speak about slams being a learning curve and you often have to graduate slowly to the second half of the second week , almost serve your time, AP has definitely done so and I see her experience as key. That, and I do not really want to desert her ! I do have some issues, biggest of which the last finish v Stephens and now a day game (but now a very early one), but post match she looked quite fresh.
Danielle Rose Collins battled back from losing the opening set 6-2 to clubgowi favourite Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarter finals and she showed great mental strength to do so, but AP had three points on her own serve to take that second set into a tie break and might well have won in two had she done so, as the momentum looked to have swung back at that time.Anyway, much to like about that, her ranking has stalled in the mid 30's but on her day she is better than that and a hard court in NY should suit her perfectly. She seems the type to like a scrap and a night game in NY with a home crowd never slow to show their feelings and surely on her side, will be ideal.
I have three big negatives for Wozniacki I am not sure about the hunger any more, she got the long desired slam title and also that #1 ranking back for a while, she has had some injuries and played just 26 matches this season, that is after 60 last year, following on from an average of 72.6 from each of the previous 10 years, that is a huge amount and maybe she is just worn out , or getting there ! Also. this is a night game, Wozniacki has made no secret of the fact that she is a morning person, she likes to get up early and do her training/running, preferably play, as early as possible and this evening match up hardly favours here, it is a long time to spend waiting .
1.75 units Danielle Rose Collins to beat Caroline Wozniacki 2.27 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
Australian Open Tennis: WTA: (January 15th)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova-Kiki Bertens
Kiki Bertens had a glorious and unexpected second half of 2018, I say unexpected as she had performed poorly on hard courts prior to that, doubly so against "ranked " players and in mid summer I wrote ........
I suspect that given the choice Kiki Bertens would sooner play Roland Garros four times and skip the other three slams and that probably goes double for Wimbledon !
She has played 17 fast court slams and made it through to R3 only twice, losing at that stage both times, not a great record for a #20 ranked player.
Bertens is 0-18 v top 20 ranked opponents in WTA events on hard courts ! She is 2-11 v top 50 in Premier events like this.
Bertens made the last 8 at Wimbledon, won (!) Cincinnatti and Seoul, played well at the WTA Finals and started this year with a run to the last 4 in Sydney ! Completely turning all those stats around. However, she did lose earlyish (R3) at the US Open and her record there and here, the two hardcourt slams is 8-13 including her win on Sunday, with two R3 appearances (never going beyond) in those 13 attempts.So, I do see her as vulnerable to anyone decent at good odds. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is ranked 44 , but is better than that and was #18 at this time 12 months ago, her's is really a story of unfulfilled potential and many false dawns, although to consider a top 20 and long career on Tour a failure is wrong. But here in Melboune in 2017 I wrote ..........
At Sydney I spoke about Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and how she has been on my radar for so very long ..............
I just wonder if this could finally be Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova's year. It has been a long time coming, but she has been increasingly knocking on the door and was close to the big breakthrough in 2015 and was unlucky with the draw at some slams last year, taking Serena close in the last 8 at Wimbledon, running into her nemesis Svetlana Kuznetsova at Roland Garros for example and if it will ever happen for her, consistent top 10-20, you do feel it has to be this year. I championed her early in her career, when I was certain she would be a multi major title winner, I spoke about this ahead of that loss to Kuznetsova, who is one of my favourite all time sportspeople for almost entirely financial reasons (!), in Paris ............
She leads the h2h with Pavlyuchenkova 4-1 , but the Russian pair have never met on clay and the younger player has huge (untapped) potential, she made four junior slam finals inside 13 months as a youngster, winning three, but losing here at RG to a much older Agnieszka Radwanska.
I was convinced that Pavlyuchenkova was the real deal and six years ago you would not have been able to convince me that in 2016 she would still be without a grand slam title, let alone never have been ranked inside the top 10 ( she did make #13 in 2011) ,She is still only 24 yo and I guess could still make the big breakthrough, but she lacks consistency and you are never quite sure what you will get with her. The last two h2h meetings with Sveta says everything, she won 0 & 1 in Wuhan late in 2015, with Kuznetsova only winning 22 points, four weeks later in Moscow she lost 2 & 1 with Sveta being similarly dominant, but perhaps that says more about her opponent.
She lost that easily, which was good for us, but met and beat Kuzzy in straight sets yesterday and had previously seen off home favourite Samantha Stosur 3 &1 with Pavly all over the Aussies serve. They are good wins back to back and beating Kuznetsova, who she has long looked up to and who was defending champion here, will have given the Russian huge confidence for today and the rest of these championships, which are there for the winning. She spoke after her win yesterday on the tournament website :“I’m really happy, especially because she’s not only defending champion but my fellow (countrywoman) and she’s top 10 and she’s had a really incredible year last year.”So I knew it would be a really tough match and I was just trying to do my own thing and play good tennis.”
Last week Pavlyuchenkova began her season with an opening-round loss in Auckland and asked to explain the turnaround in her fortunes this week, the Russian said the difficulties in finding form in the first match of the year ,plus cold, windy conditions meant we shouldn’t read too deeply into her result there.
She is over the moon with her last 8 spot here in Melbourne where she was a two time Junior winner and clearly feels very comfortable in these surroundings.
So she is a two time Junior AO winner and has made the last 8 of all four slams and not many ranked outside the top 20 can claim that and has also done the same feat in doubles and the big stage certainly doesn't scare her and she has 55 slam wins compared to 25 for Bertens (44% coming at RG) and the two are the same age. They met in Wuhan late last year on this surface with Pavlyuchenkova winning 4&2 and having a big read on the Dutchwoman's second serve. Bertens is and should be favourite, but not at circa 71% and so..........
1.75 units Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Kiki Bertens 3.18 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
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