When weak become strong in the NFL..........
Nov 20, 2022
NFL:
The whole point of the draft system is to make things even over time in the NFL, of course things rarely work out like that, teams are not prepared to wait and trade draft picks for players, or pick players that don't fit. However, sometimes it does and the NFC East has gone from the weakest division in the NFL in 2020 , when Washington won the section with a losing record (7-9), to arguably the strongest now, the Commanders are bottom with a 5-5 record , which is the same as Tampa Bay who lead the NFC South, Dallas are in third on 6-3 and that would place them first in three other divisions. This is the division which forms the basis of most of my NFL notes today.
| NFC EAST | W | L | T | PCT | PF | PA | Net Pts | Home | Road | Div | Pct | Conf | Pct | Non-Conf | Strk | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
8 | 1 | 0 | 0.889 | 246 | 167 | 79 | 4 - 1 - 0 | 4 - 0 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 | 0.667 | 5 - 1 - 0 | 0.833 | 3 - 0 - 0 | 1L | 4 - 1 - 0 |
 |
7 | 2 | 0 | 0.778 | 187 | 173 | 14 | 4 - 1 - 0 | 3 - 1 - 0 | 0 - 1 - 0 | 0.000 | 3 - 2 - 0 | 0.600 | 4 - 0 - 0 | 1W | 4 - 1 - 0 |
 |
6 | 3 | 0 | 0.667 | 211 | 164 | 47 | 4 - 1 - 0 | 2 - 2 - 0 | 2 - 1 - 0 | 0.667 | 5 - 3 - 0 | 0.625 | 1 - 0 - 0 | 1L | 3 - 2 - 0 |
 |
5 | 5 | 0 | 0.500 | 191 | 213 | -22 | 2 - 3 - 0 | 3 - 2 - 0 | 1 - 2 - 0 | 0.333 | 3 - 4 - 0 | 0.429 | 2 - 1 - 0 | 1W | 4 - 1 - 0 |
Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans
Short week for Washington as they played the Eagles on Monday, but they will be on cloud nine after that game, inflicting a first defeat of the season on Philly and to do so on MNF with a huge audience tuning in just to see how good the (then) 8-0 Eagles were, is a massive confidence boost. Ahead of that I wrote .....
Long week for the Philadelphia Eagles who have not played for 11 days, since they travelled to the Texans ......
Texans are 1-5-1 and have only once scored more than 20 points and then only 24 and they are averaging 16.7 pg, but five games have been decided by 7 points or fewer and in one of the others they led in the third quarter so are not getting blown away. The Eagles have impressed everyone and are 7-0, you cannot do better than that, but their schedule was ranked the second easiest in the NFL preseason and four wins have been by between 3-9 points . They are also getting the damage done early, actually almost exclusively in the second quarter, they are ranked #1 for scoring through those 15 minutes, but are ranked 23rd-27th in each of the other three quarters. Of course, when you are 7-0 and usually leading comfortably at the half, you can ease off, but we haven't seen them under real pressure late in games and I wonder what will happen when we do ?Of course, the Texans are probably not the team who will do that, but no travel for Houston on a short week and they are not terrible defending the pass, but are poor against the run (32nd) and that feels like easy yardage for anyone. However, the vast majority of the yardage they have given up on the ground has been to elite running backs, Henry, Jacobs, Taylor and to a run first and second Bears team . We cannot see Miles Sanders of the Eagles as of that level yet and Philly are a passing team first. It seems crazy to try and pick holes in a 7-0 team and QB Jalen Hurts has been on fire, but he was throwing to AJ Brown in not just double, but triple coverage on Sunday (Texans, since head coach Lovie Smith arrived, are a top ten team for takeaways) and it worked every time, but it does feel like the temptation will be there to do so again and that is very dangerous and only works.....until it doesn't ! Texans plus the double digit points.
That was fine for us , but tight, as Philly won 29-17 to move to 8-0 for the season and remain the only unbeaten team in the NFL, but failed to cover the handicap by half a point. The game was statistically close and the Eagles trailed early and never led by more than one score until the 4th quarter. Houston remained committed to the running game throughout and Dameon Pierce carried the ball 27 times for 139 yards.
These two have already met this season, with Philly winning 24-8 at FedEx Field, which was an odd one, as the Eagles scored all their points in the second quarter and the Commanders won the other three 8-0. Of course, Philadelphia didn't need to do much at all after the break, but it must still offer some hope for the visitors.
Last week Washington played the now 8-1 Vikings on the road and lost very narrowly ( 20-17), they kept their opponent scoreless through the middle two quarters, they were able to run the ball and play largely error free football and if they can repeat that today, it gives them a chance, if not of winning, then staying within a TD. These two give up almost the same amount of points per first quarter, actually Washington are a little better, so also a chance they can again keep this tight early and the Eagles are most vulnerable in those opening 15 minutes.
Washington have a new quarterback since the first meeting, Taylor Heinicke replacing Carson Wentz, the new starter has won 2/3 games and taken the Vikings close in the other, he has been sacked just 2.0 times per game, Wentz 4.5 pg and Heinicke is getting rid of the ball when in trouble. Last year Philadelphia won both meetings, but incredibly, Washington led 10-0 at the end of the first quarter in both, and in the second of those played in January this year, Heinicke was at the helm and his team were in position to win late, before he was picked off in the end zone . He spoke about that this week, saying "that play stuck with me throughout the whole offseason" and he added he welcomes the chance to erase the memory. Heinicke embraces his team's underdog status and comes into this with a healthy offense. Defensively, they are the second best defense the Eagles have faced for yards per game allowed( Philly played 5 of the bottom ranked 7) and far and away the best for first downs allowed , they are ranked 5th and the Eagles have played 5 of the bottom 8.
The Commanders know that Philly are most vulnerable early and have taken advantage of that before and are a combined 30-0 (!) h2h in the last four meetings after 15 minutes (end of Q1). Also, they are mindful that if you hang in there , move the ball on the ground and play error free football as much as possible, then you have a chance.
Washington won 32-21, had a very strong ground game and restricted the Eagles through the air and enjoyed over 40 minutes of possession, a huge number! Hard not to be impressed and now they meet the 1-7-1 Texans who lost by 12 to Philly the week before and by 8 to the Giants last week, they only scored 33 total themselves and do not match up well with the NFC East. The Commanders are looking for a 4th straight road win and losing to a team with one win is not a desirable option on the back of a win over an unbeaten team. The Texans have scored over 20 points just once this season (24) and conceded 34 in that game and 20 will not be enough today. The home side have also scored 17 points or fewer in 14/24 starts (max 10 in nine of those).
2.5 units Washington Commanders -4 points 2.15 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
Good luck!
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