2024/25				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Liverpool	29	21	7	1	69	27	+42	70	WWWX	14	11	2	1	31	11	15	10	5	0	38	16
	2		Arsenal	29	16	10	3	53	24	+29	58	WXOL	14	9	4	1	28	11	15	7	6	2	25	13
	3		Nottingham Forest	29	16	6	7	49	35	+14	54	WWOL	14	8	4	2	23	10	15	8	2	5	26	25
	4		Chelsea	29	14	7	8	53	37	+16	49	LWWL	14	8	4	2	27	15	15	6	3	6	26	22
	5		Manchester City	29	14	6	9	55	40	+15	48	XLWL	14	8	3	3	30	19	15	6	3	6	25	21
	6		Newcastle United	28	14	5	9	47	38	+9	47	WLWL	13	7	2	4	24	17	15	7	3	5	23	21
	7		Brighton & HA	29	12	11	6	48	42	+6	47	XWWW	14	6	6	2	21	16	15	6	5	4	27	26
	8		Fulham	29	12	9	8	43	38	+5	45	WLWL	15	6	5	4	22	21	14	6	4	4	21	17
	9		Aston Villa	29	12	9	8	41	45	-4	45	WLWX	15	7	7	1	25	18	14	5	2	7	16	27
	10		Bournemouth	29	12	8	9	48	36	+12	44	LXLL	14	6	3	5	18	12	15	6	5	4	30	24
	11		Brentford	29	12	5	12	50	45	+5	41	WLXW	15	7	3	5	30	27	14	5	2	7	20	18

 

Nine games left and Liverpool hold an incredibly big looking 12 point advantage and they should coast to the title. However, they and first season head coach Arne Slot are under real pressure and what might have been four titles, is now down to just one possibility after the FA Cup, Champions League and League Cup have all passed them by. Arsenal have the chance to reduce that gap still further before Liverpool play again (in form Everton) and if the Reds were to come up short in that, then anything can happen as pressure is a cruel master! 

 

Regardless of that, Liverpool and the Gunners have "claimed" two of the five Champions League places and Forest look fairly good for another, but they have no experience of this kind of well, that word again. pressure and it is how they react to their next defeat, now that we are in the run-in, which will decide their fate.

 

The other two (maybe three spots) are up for grabs, with only five points separating 4th and 10th and this race seems almost certain to go down to the wire. Brentford in 11th are only 7 points off 5th and a Champions League place, which seems insane to even write!

 

Across the last 10 games, Brighton have played best of these seven teams, collecting 20 points, Newcastle were second with 18, Bournemouth and Chelsea are at the other end of that table, picking up just 14.

 

Aston Villa are still in both the Champions League and FA Cup which are major distractions. Manchester City are also in the FA Cup but also have those 115 FFP charges against them with a verdict expected "soon" and that is hanging over them like the Sword of Damocles and no wonder performances have nosedived if players already know the likely outcome. 

 

Brighton, Fulham and Forest are also in the last 8 of the FA Cup and unlike all the other "name" clubs, that is big for them , the first two having never won a domestic trophy and Forest not for 35 years.

 

Newcastle United have no other distractions now, so all guns blazing for top 5. The Magpies also have a game in hand and have just won their first domestic trophy in 70 years, the party was, I expect, pretty long and wild, but they have 17 days to get that out of their system before they have to go again. Their fixture list looks pretty good, they play only two teams above them in the table, hosting Chelsea and travelling to Arsenal , who might have nothing to play for, on their final away day.  

 

Chelsea are not playing very well and are still in Europe (Conference League), but have still to play four of the bottom 8.

 

Manchester City do not play a team higher than 8th and their next six games are all against teams in the bottom 9 and if we had this situation 12 months ago and no charges against them, you would have expected them to win either 7 or 8 of those! They "should" finish top 4/5 but are priced @ 1.67 for top 4 which, given all their issues, regardless of the fixtures remaining, seems short in the extreme and remember, this is a team who have lost 15 times since the end of October.

 

Newcastle are quoted 3.25 for top 4 and whilst we have no need to bet as we are already on them, that looks better value. Their ten remaining fixtures are ....

 

02/04/25	PRL	Newcastle United	19 : 45	Brentford
07/04/25	PRL	Leicester City	20 : 00	Newcastle United
13/04/25	PRL	Newcastle United	16 : 30	Manchester United
16/04/25	PRL	Newcastle United	19 : 30	Crystal Palace
19/04/25	PRL	Aston Villa	17 : 30	Newcastle United
26/04/25	PRL	Newcastle United	15 : 00	Ipswich Town
03/05/25	PRL	Brighton & Hove Albion	15 : 00	Newcastle United
10/05/25	PRL	Newcastle United	15 : 00	Chelsea
18/05/25	PRL	Arsenal	15 : 00	Newcastle United
25/05/25	PRL	Newcastle United	16 : 00	Everton

 

Obviously I do not like that first game! But they play two of the bottom three , who could not beat an egg between them and I have already spoken of them probably facing an Arsenal team with nothing at stake come May 18th and who knows, possibly with an upcoming CL final. They play Villa immediately after the Birmingham giants have played PSG twice inside 7 days. Also six games are at SJP and all apart from Chelsea are against bottom half of the table opposition. There is also a chance that two and not one spots are up for grabs, as Forest are not yet guaranteed and, if United win their GIH that gap is only 4 points. 

 

Hopefully United take confidence from that League Cup win and, if it comes along with a Champions League place, it will become the dream campaign.

 

 

 

Good luck!