What was in today's newsletter and who reads it !

Nov 07, 2020

I have just sent today's newsletter to subscribers , it ran to well over 5,800 words, included stats for one of today's top leagues, notes on nine games taking place today, with full previews on eight. That email cost all subscribers less than 1 euro, the service is super affordable and very few bettors would not be better informed reading the newsletter before making any hard and fast betting decisions about the day in question. That is why amongst the subscribers, as far as I know are two betting brokers, three main european style bookmakers, two syndicates and one football club, there might be more of each, if it is good enough for them, well, you know the rest !

You can read one of the eight previews below .................

Rotherham United are the team previously discussed who have failed to create anything of note in 7 starts and they also kindly lost at home to Luton Town in midweek...................

I suspect both teams will be relatively pleased with their respective starts to the new season. United only collected 13 wins from their last 92 Championship games in 16-17 and 18-19 relegation campaigns and were desperate to avoid falling out of the blocks again. 9 points is "ok" and if they could have hand picked one of their two wins, it would have been hated rival Sheffield Wednesday who they beat 3-0 last miweek. They might have been lucky that they faced the Owls at the right time and their other win came versus Wycombe who were promoted along with the Millers last season.

Luton are coming off a 3-0 home defeat to Brentford which we discussed yesterday, they were outplayed, but I like the way head coach Nathan Jones just admitted as much, said that Brentford were "years ahead" and just wanted to move on. His team have 13 points on board through 9 games and they only had 21 through 28 games last season, they were nine points from safety prior to Jones' return to Kenilworth Road, but he helped them survive and across his two reigns, Town have lost just 33/157 league starts, averaging just shy of 1.8 ( 1.796) points per game. They have rarely lost back to back with him in charge and next time out after their last 22 defeats they are 14-7-1 which is an average of 2.23 points. Town have taken 9 points from three teams who would be seen as likely relegation candidates and will see the Millers as another. XP suggests that United should have lost the seven games they did not win and although Town have issues at left back and will have to play someone out of position, I favour them to bounce back and like the level ball option.

The Millers lost that 1-0 and were also 0-3 for BC's. They now host strong road side Preston North End who are coming off a confidence boosting 3-0 win at leaders Reading in midweek..................

Despite siding with Reading against a substandard Coventry City on Friday night I did note ............. I am not a total believer in the Royals just yet and a lot has gone their way and at some stage soon we will probably be opposing them, as I suspect we have seen the very best of Reading already and I see half a dozen teams who are stronger.

Reading remain top of the Championship with 22 points, but xp suggests they should have exactly half that number and puts them 2 behind North End and not 12 in front ! I saw a lot of Reading last season and do not see them as hugely changed and with a number of issues remaining, I do not doubt that new head coach Veljko Paunović has reinstilled confidence in a squad who have lost 61 games in the last three seasons, but he has only been at the club for two months and a lot has gone his and the Royals way and we have to treat their amazing start with a very large pinch of salt.

I had a good look at Preston in their incredible 4-2 win at Lionel Road over Brentford, that was obviously their best performance of the season and they are suited by playing on the road , with a 0-0-5 home record, 3-1-0 away from Deepdale, but it was the performance more than result that took the eye. They were really very good indeed and on the day, better all over teh pitch, they pressed so high and hard, that even when they pulled the game round from 0-2 to 2-2 I was not overly worried as they "had to tire", but they got stronger the longer the game went. I cannot explain that home form, they won 12 as host last season which was 4th best in the division, I guess it has got inside their head now and I would not bet them at Deepdale until they broke that duck, but it need not concern us this evening. On the road they have scored 10 goals in 4 starts, 2+ in each, collected 2.5 points pg and those have come versus teams with an average xP of 15, which is 4 more than Reading and includes what I view as the two main promotion favourites. PNE to score twice again and with them the value off level ball.

All the core points are covered, PNE had five BC's against the Royals and are a very good Championship team, they just need to sort out that home form, but again, that need not concern us today and this is as easy a road game as you can get in the Championship right now, that is not to say that it is easy, as no games in the second tier are, but as close as you could wish for.

2 units Preston North End -0.5 ball 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.

Good luck !

Glossary

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.