Weekend Bundesliga betting tips ...................
May 30, 2020
I have previwed all nine Bundesliga games taking place this weekend with, as a starting point, our ITB and XP tables which you can view in this post and which should be your first port of call before betting in any of the ten leagues we cover at clubgowi. You can often sign up to receive the clubgowi newsletter for little more than one euro per day, so previews and all our statistics should be affordable to most bettors.
The weekend notes run to over 5,000 words, but I am a little limited on what I can share with you as free to view content, however, below you can see two of the briefer previews below, the Friday night game which was 0-0 at half time and this afternoon's very brief thoughts on the game taking place in Mainz. One where we were expecting a tight game, the other an open one, but both were we used the available stats and allied then to what we saw withour own eyes and how teams are/were likely to approach their respective games.
Friday: Freiburg- Bayer Leverkusen
90 minute odds feel about right , but we can probably expect a cautious opening between two teams who conceded a lot of chances in midweek..............
Leverkusen are a net +120 ITB over Freiburg for the season and XP suggests there should be an additional 3 points between the two, but ITB numbers for the last eight games alone give Bayer just a +4 edge . Freiburg have played a slightly lower level of opposition through that sequence , but the difference is fairly minimal (average league placing of 10.5 as opposed to 8.9). Real wake up call for Leverkusen and me for that matter with that big midweek loss to Wolfsburg and they are now outside the Champions League places, albeit only on goal difference and with the other top 5 teams all playing bottom half of the table opponents this weekend, they will probably view anything less than three points as unacceptable and likely to leave them in "trouble". Freiburg are 8th and still in contention for a Europa League spot, but they have won just 2/10 and scored only 6 goals and they have failed to score in 7 of 9 h2h meetings with Leverkusen as host, although there have been a lot of draws between the two teams. The quick turnaround probably suits Leverkusen better, being used to the Europa League /Sunday schedule and having more quality in depth, with a squad valued 3-4 times that of Freiburg and with 14 players valued at £10m + as opposed to just two for the home side. Freiburg rarely play three in eight days, let alone 3 in 7 and they spent a lot of time without the ball in midweek at Frankfurt where they conceded 34 attempts on goals, 28 inside the box and 16 on target, to give those numbers some context, Bayern Munich have only come close once this season winning 6-0 to Crvena Zvezda and producing 29, 22 and 16 respectively.
Freiburg have not scored a home goal inside 20 minutes this season, or conceded one inside 15 and with so few goals in this match up (four of the last 6 h2h league meetings in Freiburg have ended 0-0) and that 50% of Leverkusen's away games have been draws at half time and that Freiburg home games are averaging 0.77 goals before the break, if there is any value in this game, it might be with the 2.50 half time draw, or 0-0 correct score at the break (odds 3.60).
Saturday: Mainz- Hoffenheim
Mainz are just a point above the relegation playoff spot, Hoffenheim are in 7th and still in Europa League contention after that midweek win over Koln. The visitors are happier on the road when they have picked up more than half their points and conceded just 27% of goals (13 of 48) and they are usually involved in goalmouth action with their last 8 games producing 164 ITB attempts, creating the 5th highest number and conceding the most . Although they beat Koln on Wednesday, they "lost" big chances 4-2 and corners 10-0 and had 14% less of the ball, despite having a man advantage for almost 30 minutes. All ITB numbers are close and XP puts the difference between these two teams at 5 and not 11 points. This is "always" an open encounter with the last 10 h2h games in Mainz averaging 4.3 goals, including both teams scoring at least twice each in the last three and easy to see plenty of chances again today.
Hoffenhein are without suspended captain and CB Benjamin Hubner today, they have conceded 14 goals in the 7 starts he has missed this season, including 7 in the last two.
1.75 units "over" 3.5 goals 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
Stay safe and good luck !
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport:
Competition:
Football Teams: