UEFA Champions League: Manchester City- Club Brugge
Nov 03, 2021
UEFA Champions League: Manchester City- Club Brugge
My notes on the reverse fixture from two weeks ago are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. City won 5-1 and then beat Brighton 4-1 four days later, but they have not scored in two subsequent outings , losing on penalties to West Ham in the League Cup, a competition that City had won in each of the last four seasons, and 2-0 at home to Crystal Palace. Feast or famine offensively and that is how it will be at times without that #9 and they have also conceded in 7/11 games, multiple goals (2+) in four of those.
City have played 16 competitive games this season, failed to score in six, but averaged 3.7 goals in the other 10 ! It is very difficult to see them coming up short a third game running, given how dominant they were in Bruges, where they had 22 attempts on goals, 17 from ITB , creating 9 BC's (six of which they missed) , with an xGF of circa 4.80. Equally, Brugge have nothing really to lose, they hold a four point lead over Leipzig in the "race" for a third spot , which would be seen as success for them and they can afford to give this a go and are, anyway, a very offensive minded team and have scored in all three games so far, twice in Leipzig.
2.25 units both teams to score 2.22 Pinnacle.
Good luck !
UEFA Champions League:Club Brugge- Manchester City (written 19/10)
Ahead of the host's opening group stage game with PSG I wrote ...........
Brugge can have few real hopes of progression and would almost certainly take third place in the group right now. They are playing in their third straight group stage, were winless in the first, beat the bottom team home and away in the second to move into the Europa League and I suspect that will be their target once again and for their biggest games to be the two with the German side, who have issues right now. Brugge have played three big European "names" here in Belgium in those two campaigns and conceded at least three in each, losing 5-0 to PSG, 3-1 to Real Madrid and 3-0 to Dortmund. The hosts look a little weaker this season and are injury hit at present, PSG are desperate to win the Champions League, which is why Messi was bought in and they have effectively "thrown away" the £189m which was offered for Kylian Mbappe who will leave for free next summer. Messi/Mbappe/Neymar will all seemingly play tonight, it is an abundance of riches and an opportunity for PSG to lay down a marker for the rest of this campaign to the other big teams.
It actually ended 1-1 and while PSG had more BC's, Brugge had 16 attempts, 14 ITB and 7 on target. They then went to Leipzig and came from behind to win 2-1 and they sit joint top of Group A alongside the Parisians who beat Manchester City on Matchday 2...........
Not much leaps off the page in terms of Champions League bets today, but this is a huge game between two of Europe's biggest clubs and with little else of betting interest in the competition, I feel obliged to take a look at a fixture that many of us will be watching ............
These two met in the semi finals last season with the first leg in Paris played exactly five months ago today, ahead of that I noted ................
How often do you see 2.10 + for City, or 3.30 + for PSG ?
A first Champions League win is the Holy Grail and has been long sought for both teams and I guess that could see both adopt a more cautious approach, but that hardly plays to the strengths of either and PSG's four knockout stage games with Barcelona and Bayern Munich were wide open affairs, with xG's of over 3.20 and an average of circa 4.40 . Those games saw 13 goals, but there were 28 BC's and the woodwork was struck five times and City are similarly offensive minded to those two teams and have created an average of 3.74 BC's across their last 19 Champions League games . I am hoping that will be the type of game we will see, with both going toe to toe, City dominating possession and PSG showing their devastating pace and ruthlessness on the break and it is a classic match up, just as PSG-Bayern was. City are not as naive or vulnerable as Bayern are defensively, but neither are they as strong at the back as some seem to think, which is something we have touched upon many times.
PSG led 1-0 at half time, having dominated the first half and they really ought to have been a couple of goals to the good. However, it was the archetypal game of two halfs and City forced the Parisians deep into their own half after the break and scored the two goals to give them a big advantage and 2-1 lead for the second leg.
The tactical changes at half time saw City pressing higher and PSG helped make that easy by dropping deeper, the hosts had great success in playing out from the back in the opening 45 minutes, Gueye being especially effective, but Guardiola's tweaks all but nullified that.
Ahead of the return I updated with ..............
Now it is PSG's turn to respond and for Mauricio Pochettino to come up with something new or a variation on what we saw last week, he has to get Mbappe into the game more for sure. What he will be happy with is the chances his side created from set pieces and that, despite the City dominance in the second half, the EPL side were largely restricted with what they created from open play. PSG have arrived with a 25 man squad , which included Idrissa Gueye who is suspended and a couple who are said to be the subject of late fitness tests, which I guess is reinforced by the size of the group who have travelled. Kylian Mbappe is said to be one of those and to be honest, he did not look 100% last week, but he was rested at the weekend and I cannot believe he will sit this one out and he will want to surely go Round 2 with Kyle Walker in the battle of the speedsters.
PSG's preferred game plan is equally effective home or away, possibly more so on the road and they have scored in 23 Champions League away starts, 2+ goals in 16 of those including at Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United (twice), Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich, so a trip to England and a "name" opponent is not going to scare them and their task is clear, they have to score twice to have any chance of progression. I will stick with City being more vulnerable defensively than they get credit for and they showed a real weakness in defending PSG's very clever set pieces last week, Mbappe has to surely be involved more, Pochettino has had a week to prepare his response and their target is clear, which often helps to clarify matters and concentrate the mind, find a way to score twice, which they have done in Manchester (United), Barcelona and Munich in their last three competition road trips.
City also won that, 2-0, we did not see Mbappe and PSG again ended with 10 men after the dismissal of Angel DiMaria halfway through the second half.
PSG will take heart from the way they played the opening 45 minutes back in late April , have Mbappe fully fit now , will have a very vocal home crowd backing them this evening and are in much better domestic form this season and currently a perfect 8-0-0 in Ligue 1 play. We could also argue that their need is greater after drawing their group stage opener in Brugge. They also have made some big name summer additions to the squad , including Achraf Hakimi, Georgino Wijmaldum, Sergio Ramos and Lionel Messi, all with one intention and it is not to win another Ligue 1 title. Messi is a doubt, but is in the squad and has trained the last couple of days, so should play some part and the same applies to Marco Veratti.
City are building up a head of steam and are coming off a fine win at Chelsea, but remain without a real number 9 and did miss all three BC's they created at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. They have failed to score in the first half in 4/6 Premier league starts and trailed 1-0 at the break in their last two competition away starts (PSG and Dortmund) and also in the CL final with Chelsea and, with that last trip to Paris still playing out and fresh in my mind, I will suggest ......
I went with PSG to win the first half at big odds and they led 1-0 at half time and went on to win the game 2-0. It worked out OK for us, but it is hard to look at the numbers in the cold light of day and not feel City were unfortunate, they "won" xG 1.7-0.5, attempts 18-6, ITB 12-3, on target 7-3, corners 10-2, BC's 3-0, saves 1-7 hit woodwork 2-0 and lost without scoring ! That is where we are with City, they are going to outplay almost everyone, but they badly miss that #9 and should have signed one in the summer, they played poker with Daniel Levy and for once he didn't fold when the cash was produced ! But I am not sure that either Spurs or City won that hand of cards. They will create plenty tonight, but City conceded two to PSG, two next time out to Liverpool and whilst they beat Burnley 2-0 at the Etihad on Saturday, they usually put five past the Clarets and the visitors missed two BC's and should have scored. City to win this with BTS, 3-1 ?
2 units Manchester City to win and both teams to score 2.80+.... 3.05 Pinnacle.
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