17 rounds played.

 

 

 

 

* played just 16 games

 

Net ITB numbers for the season directly alongside each team, figures after that in brackets are ITB numbers (created-conceded) for the last five games.

 

 

So what stands out ?

 

Juve have had a couple of games with poor numbers, actually very poor and performances are up and down for them.

 

Torino, Parma and Cagliari numbers remain bad and I would treat that trio with caution and we can definitely expect the last two named to have a downturn soon, Sassuolo are -30 for their last five through which they have given up a league high 66 attempts ITB and their only positive number in recent games was against Cagliari which is a further indictment of the Sardinians.

 

Lazio recent stats are very impressive, they have created double digit attempts ITB in five straight games and Atlanta numbers are just sensational and suggest they are better than even 5th place.

 

We can expect improvement and movement up the table from Milan and Fiorentina soon.

 

 

 

 

Fiorentina have a +46 ITB differential (+16 last five games) , XP suggests they are closer than the league table indicates, but also that both are significantly better than we have seen so far, Bologna by 5.36 points and Fiorentina by 7.75, but that also closes the gap between the two teams.

 

It is difficult to put your finger on what exactly is wrong at La Viola they were 14th last season posting just 8 league wins, half of the number they managed in the previous campaign, XP gave then an additional 18 points (highest in Serie A) and good for 8th place and they should have converted many of those 17 draws into wins. They are clearly better than results have shown over the last 18 months but winning 12 from 55 ( 21.82%) is simply not good enough.

 

Bologna also picked up 31 from the second half of 2018-19 to finish 10th from a starting position of bottom 3 which was a great run and back to back wins and five goals to go into the holiday break indicates that they might be planning something similar.

 

 

 

 

Two teams also better than the table suggests . Easy to see this as more important for Milan as they have had to stew on a 5-0 loss to Atalanta for over two weeks, with expectation levels always so great at the club, even after years of underachievement and that today sees the second debut of Zlatan Ibrahimovic......they do love an "oldie" in Serie A ! However, odds look short enough and an easy pass for me.

 

 

 

Atalanta are just two league places and six points ahead of Parma, but XP puts that advantage at 12.67 pts and gives ATL a +18 XGD, with Parma on -5.5 goals. The ITB differential of +170 for the season and +69 for the last five games is as big as I have seen for two largely "even" teams and if this is played out similarly today we could expect Atalanta to have 14 attempts inside the box more that Parma. even more if we allow some "home" advantage weighting !

 

The home team have been basking in the warm glow of a pre Christmas 5-0 thrashing of Milan for 15 days and look set to be unchanged with no new injury issues and pretty much a full squad, Parma are without several starters due to injury and suspension including Andreas Cornelius, Yann Karamoh, Roberto Inglese , Gervinho and Riccardo Gagliolo , three of whom played in their last away game, that was a fine 2-1 win at Napoli, but they are weakened today and "lost" possession 72-28%, attempts 33-7, ITB 20-5, corners 11-1 and keeper Luigi Sepe was a MOTM contender with 7 saves in that and you suspect they will need similar good fortune today to come away with a result. Atalanta did the double over Parma last season scoring three in each, without conceding in the game in Bergamo.

 

 

 

Juve performance levels have been up and down recently ( see above) but this afternoon kick off gives them the opportunity to open up a  three point gap at the top of the table and put some real pressure on Inter ahead of their very difficult late trip to Naples. The "old Lady has a +145 ITB differential over overachieving Cagliari and XP puts the visitors way down in 18th place with just 17 pts and they should have scored 14 goals fewer and conceded five more. Juve are undefeated in 29 home league games and in 18 h2h meetings with Cagliari and hard to see either trend stopping here. Having said that, Cagliari ARE overachieving *we dod not know exactly how long that might continue) and have scored in 5 of 9 trips to Turin and have nothing to lose and Juve are clearly not as good this season , especially defensively, they have conceded 17 goals already (which took an additional 10 games last season and 14 in 17-18) and 9 have come in just 8 home starts, they conceded 4 in their first 9 home games in each of the last two campaigns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

-86 net ITB and 12.6 XP firmly suggests that Lecce are the worst team in Serie A. Udinese are better on both counts, but not by as much as you might expect and Lecce actually have a +17 ITB differential in their favour across the last five games. Both teams should like this fixture and play with only three points in mind, Lecce have not won in eight as host, but have both scored and conceded 2+ in the last four of those, Udinese have lost 5/6 on the road and there have been 3+ goals in the last five of those. BTS at least once and goals.

 

 

 

 

Game of the day at least on paper, but Napoli have won just 3/8 at home and already look out of Champions League contention, trailing four teams by 11 + points and also a very good Atalanta side by 7 .

 

Inter are going toe to toe with Juve for the title and they seem sure to need all three points to retain their advantage on goal difference by the time this kicks off ( see Juve preview above).

 

Not much between the two in terms of ITB, but Napoli have had a couple of outstanding games stats wise which have skewed those numbers slightly, but still found a way to come up short in one or two of those ( see the Parma notes above as example) and Inter are by far the more consistent and XP suggests they should be leading Serie A by 5 points.

 

Inter do not have a great record in this stadium, far from it, losing on 6 of 10 visits and conceding 20 goals , but Napoli have finished top 3 in 7 of those 10 campaigns, never lower than 6th, Inter not higher than 4th in the last 8 and now, the power has shifted.

 

Inter have far more options now with players returning from injury and suspension, Napoli have a lengthy list of absences including Kalidou Koulibalyand Dries Mertens, they will have a new central defensive partnership against the top scoring away offense and be without the free scoring Mertens who has 28 goals and 16 assists in the last 18 months, including one or each against Inter in this fixture back in May.