Lengthy newsletter today, running to almost 6,000 words and covering eight games from Spain, Germany, England and MLS.
The day has already started well with good results for J-League this morning ( sent to subscribers on Friday) , but was just as well as I had a bit of a nightmare yesterday !
Those JL1 notes are reproduced below as samples.
If anyone signs up to the World Cup offer today before 16.00 UK time , I will send a copy of today's newsletter as a bonus.
Only 33 days until the WC starts !
Good Luck.
Results:
V-Varen 3-0
Sanfrecce 3-1
Jubilo 0-2 ( two goals inside 25 mins, woodwork was hit and seven saves preventing a 'sweep')
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Saturday.
Japan: J-League 1
V-Varen Nagasaki- Nagoya Grampus
So many notes on V-Varen Nagasaki and there were a host of them in the midweek league cup notes which you all got to see, so no need to repeat all of those today. They lost 2-1 at Sagan in that game which was "ok" for us, 1-2 would have been far better ! Anyway, we know what to expect from VVN games and they rarely disappoint.
They are now back in trouble, two places, but just one point above the drop zone, albeit five ahead of basement club Nagoya. It is easy to see goals today, with these two conceding 21 and 24 respectively, both seem unable to keep a clean sheet, but we know also that Nagasaki can score and I still believe that Nagoya have an offensive threat too, although we have not see a great deal of it. They have not won on the road (and only once more overall) since their opening day win at Gamba Osaka when I wrote .............
Nagoya bounced back from relegation in 2016 to be promoted from JL2 at the first attempt scoring a whopping 86 goals , but conceding an equally "impressive" 65 ! That is a 3.57 per game average, they are always fun to watch and are a welcome addition to the top flight. They have made some waves with the signing of Jo from Corinthians, the aforementioned Serie A champions, he was joint top scorer in the Championship with 18 goals, Nagoya apparently paying 11-12m € for his services which is a good for the Brazilian club, who signed the now 30yo striker as a free agent 12 months ago.......football is a funny old game ! Now the fun of watching Nagoya has just gone up another notch !
This game should be worthwhile following and Gamba are very much a second half team (scored 36/48 and conceded 31/41 in the SH) with a lot of action in their games coming after the break, Nagoya conceded 52% of goals in the final 30 minutes of games in their 2016 relegation season and didn't appear to have improved much defensively at the lower level, there should certainly be goals in the second 45 minutes.
They won that 3-2 , with three second half goals and a late winner from Jo, if only all games played out like that !
Jo is top scorer with five league goals , infact, three of their four Brazilian players (the other is an out and out defender) have scored all 12 of Nagoya's goals and we are overdue a contribution from the Japanese . They will have to reshuffle with DM Yuki Kobayashi serving a yellow card suspension, Nagoya are not good defensively anyway but Kobayashi has missed just two games in the last 12 months a 3-1 loss in their 2017 JL2 promotion campaign and 4-1 home loss to Urawa Reds in the league cup. Two struggling teams means we expect goals and that goes double here, both to score , VVN to win.
1.5 units V-Varen Nagasaki -0.5 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.75 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Vegalta Sendai- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Two rounds left to play before the World Cup break and Sanfrecce will be keen to hang on to that big looking eight point advantage going into it. They blew a two goal lead at half time at home to Gamba Osaka in midweek, but that will only serve to concentrate minds even more I feel, they are 11-1-1 in the league, conceding just five goals and look what they are right now the best defensive team in Japan. They have not played on the road since their 2-0 win in Nagasaki last month when I wrote ...........
Nagasaki's last ten games have averaged 3.0 goals with no draws ( six wins), they have come to terms with life in the top flight with 4 wins in 5 league and cup starts, without overly compromosing those offensive standards we have discussed a lot this season. Having said all that they rode their luck in a 2-1 midweek win at Jubilo Iwata where the hosts had 9 attempts from inside the box , 8 on target and VVN just cannot afford to be that free and easy today, but they almost certainly will. Sanfrecce lost their unbeaten league record in the capital on Wednesday, losing 3-1 to FCT, but they had 17 attempts from inside the area, 11 more than the home side and the scoreline could easily have been reversed. FCT did sit back a bit after their early need and that might have made the numbers flattering, but Hiroshima were hurt by the loss and we know that Nagasaki will give up chances and space and I just cannot see beyond the away win.
They were very focused there by that midweek loss and I expect a similar response to losing to Gamba. In the match against VVN they had 21 attempts, 15 inside the box, giving up just 5 and 3 and they hit the woodwork as they have also done in back to back subsequent 2-0 home wins over SSP and Vissel Kobe.
Vegalta starting 2018 well and were unbeaten through five games ( 3-2-0) but I spoke about them at the time as overachieving and they have gone 2-2-4 subsequently with their two wins coming against bottom five teams. They have conceded seven (at least two in each in their last three home starts (league and cup) which included Consadole taking the lead with ten men and holding on to it until the 95th minute and a 3-0 defeat to Jubilo Iwata. I have some issues with Sanfrecce (but less than I do with Vegalta), they need to show more offensive intent and do think teams will work out how to beat them, but that might be during the WC break and in the meantime, they have to make hay whilst the sun is shining ! Traditionally a decent fixture for the visitors who have won on 2/3 and 3/5 visits, scoring 2+ in 4/6 . Away win.
1.75 units Sanfrecce Hiroshima -0.5 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Jubilo Iwata- Vissel Kobe
I previewed Vissel Kobe- Kawasaki Frontale two weeks ago ..............
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I looked at Kobe's midweek game away to Kashima Antlers and those notes also referred to and linked to a recent Vissel game with V-Varen Nagasaki ..................
Ahead of their Saturday home game with Nagoya Grampus I discussed Vissel Kobe and the head of steam they appeared to be finally getting up .............
I previewed the midweek LC game between V-Varen Nagasaki and Vissel Kobe and the full notes contained a lot of background information and are reproduced at the foot of this email (edit: see Friday newsletter). VVN led until quite late before Kobe scored twice to snatch the group points.
The hosts are much better than the league table suggests and as I have written before, should have many more points on board, it feels like they are finally building some momentum and they will want the points here with a tough trip to Kashima Antlers on Wednesday and series of games to follow. Kobe have a host of really promising teenagers and are starting to blood a couple and the future looks very bright for them, Lukas Podolski has served his yellow card suspension and should be rested and hungry today to aid with his experience and the blend is starting to look very good.
They won 3-0 with Podolski scoring twice and the level of performance was high, they had 12 attempts inside the box, also hit the woodwork and posted good passing stats. The German superstar was very influential and is clearly now in better shape to do himself justice, something we spoke about a few weeks back and he appears to have really bought into the Kobe "project". He completed 50 passes, had 7 attempts on goal, the Kobe midfield alone completed almost as many passes as either team did in total in the Frontale-Antlers game the same day, where struggling Kashima lost 4-1 and finished with ten men after central defender Gen Shoji was sent off late. Antlers have yet to come close to the heights of last season and I doubt the quick turnaround is in their favour with not much going right at present. They have lost 3 of the last 4 that Shoji has sat out, conceding 9 goals, 2+ in each.
Vissel have a great record in this series, winning on 5/6 visits, with 6/7 going "over' and Kobe scoring 13 goals in those seven starts.
Kobe led for quite a while, Antlers equalised and we could not find that third goal despite Kobe having two very good late opportunities and again, it was a case of what might have been and since Podolski took up the challenge, he has been the leader Vissel expected him to be and the hosts are not far away from the best that JL1 has to offer. The same is true of Frontale, but they are on the road and we get odds against about the host and a handicap start, so it feels like a bit of a no brainer.
Hosts have scored in their last 10 starts, two or more in seven , 19 goals in total and Frontale have not scored on their last four trips to Kobe .
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Ahead of last week's home game with highflying FC Tokyo I updated with ..........
Frontale led early, Kobe hit the woodwork twice, found a late equaliser and it felt like they were again going to end the match the better and push for the win, but almost immediately had a player sent off and were denied a stone wall penalty. I don't know if you call that bad luck or ill discipline (combination of both ?), but events again conspired against Kobe and they are the one team in JL1 that you know 100% are better than the table suggests. However, is does feel like something always goes wrong when they play the better teams and maybe subconsciously they have an inferiority complex.
Today they meet second placed FC Tokyo who could not buy a goal in 2017 ( 16 from their last 20 starts ....3 wins) and my goodness they tried, signing any proven striker with a pulse it felt, now they have 19 after 11 games, posting 7 wins. Pretty sure that we will see goals today, Kobe home games are averaging 3.8 pg and they have conceded 2+ in 6 of their last 8 starts in Kobe , 16 in total. I do think that Vissel are under rated and have to see them as favourites today and they will want the win with tough road trips to Sanfrecce and Jubilo Iwata up next. They are without suspended defensive midfielder Jung Woo-young, both teams have scored in the two previous games he has missed, but nothing there to put me off the double bet
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Kobe did not score in that or a 2-0 loss at leaders Sanfrecce, but should have done so in each, they scored three in midweek in the cup ( see preview below), but lost by the odd goal in seven. I am not concerned about that, as they had relatively little to play for there. But they are certainly overdue a change of luck and to get close to what their performances have merited.
Jubilo Iwata have started this camapign well , but even so, after playing the top 3 back to back (to back), Kobe should certainly appreciate the slight dip in quality today. They also usually enjoy themselves in Iwata City, scoring ten goals in four visits (winning three) , with 2+ goals in 4/6 with all those six going "over". Jubilo's last seven starts have seen both teams score in six and the same number of games with 3+ goals. Lukas Podolski (see above) is out injured but that is not enough to put me off goals. Kobe were also linked with Andres Iniesta this week, they have subsequently denied it, but it made some sense with the Hiroshi Mikitani,Barcelona, Rakuten links I discussed with you in early season and if nothing else, gives some idea about what Kobe might look to do in the future.
1.75 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.05 asian line/Sportmarket.
Shimizu S-Pulse- Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare beat a Vissel Kobe B team 4-3 on the road in midweek and my notes from that included something from a recent game with Sagan Tosu .............
The visitors will only really have JL1 survival as their target for 2018 , but as a team who has yo-yoed between the top two flights, they are not a LC regular and this probably has more meaning to them, certainly it seems above any it has to Sagan. Shonan have had a very tough run of games FCT/ Cerezo/Kobe/ Antlers/Consadole/ Hiroshima in their last six starts, just one win, but five were close and Bellmare deserved more in a couple and they will surely welcome the lesser level of competition today, especially if Sagan are not fully motivated.
............. and also ...........
Kobe are all but qualified, but Shonan need to win their last two to have any real chance and it is surely their need against a better team who are far stronger on the front foot which will dictate how this plays out. I expect goals and maybe Kobe to run away with things if they score first. Having said that, Shonan have played increasing better on the road with five goals in their last two away J-League starts.
That is now nine goals in three away games all wins for Shonan, despite which, it remains all about survival for them and they will see today's game as a six pointer.
Shimizu only lost one of their first six, but have been defeated in 5 of 7 subsequently and, after only avoiding relegation by two points last season, also know that any hopes of avoiding another dog fight are fading fast and they will view this similarly. They are not the most confident club and we spoke last season about them referencing themselves as being in trouble before they really were and almost talking themselves into that relegation scrap. Their last six starts against bottom half of the table teams have seen five go "over" with four developing into mini shootouts (4+ goals). I expect goals , but am also tempted by the away win and Shonan have stepped up in these kind of games, knowing where they are likely to collect points , with 10 from 4 starts against team currently in the bottom half of the table.
1.75 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
1 unit Shonan Bellmare to win (-0.5 ball) 3.50 -3.70 general quote.
Good Luck.
