Today's Japanese and Brazilian football .................
Jul 17, 2021
Today's subscriber newsletter was sent out at 09:00 UK time this morning, it extended to some 3,000 words and covered eight games/events, with suggested bets in each, one for the Open Championship golf and the rest covering football, three MLS games and two each from Brazil Serie A and Japan J-League 1. You can see the last four of those below as samples, the two Japanese games have just finished with Kawasaki Frontale winning 2-0 and Vissel Kobe conceding a late equaliser after leading for an hour or so .
Brazil: Serie A:
Ceará - Atlético Paranaense
Fluminense- Gremio
2-3 weeks ago I previewed Fluminense- Atlético Paranaense............
Fluminense are 2-4-1 , but are better than that and have served us pretty well, ahead of a recent trip to Fortaleza where I sided with them off level ball , my notes included ...........
Fluminense are the other Brazilian team we "like" , they have played well in three league and Copa games with Bragantino and are coming off a 1-0 midweek home win over Santos, notes from which are reproduced at the foot of this email. We know that they are very difficult to score against, unless you are named Bragnatino (and even they struggled) and also that Flu have goals in them when required. They feel like a team who like to conserve energy, but with a second gear if required and that they are playing with the full 38 game season in mind and I suspect that they expect to be involved in the title race.
They led there , but eventually drew 1-1 in a game as close as it sounds. They have played twice subsequently, a first loss of the season at Atletico Goianiense (1-0) and a 1-1 home draw with Corinthians, where they trailed, then had Abel Hernandez sent off, but equalised a man short and bossed the game statistically, even the second half , despite being down to ten players for over 40 minutes. They are better IMO, when, like in that game, they are almost forced forward and they should have scored an additional 3 goals this season and I hope they will start playing with a little more adventure at some stage.
Atletico Paranaense are second with a 4-1-1 record from their six starts, we know they are traditionally strong in Curitiba and we do well with them as host, but their road form tends to hold them back and we are talking about season after season. Since promotion in 2012, they have a 51.97% loss rate away from home , losing double digit road games in 5 of the last 7 campaigns. This season they have won 2/3 away games, but face a stern test today and have started conceding (5 in last 3, none in first 3) . XGD makes interesting reading as it says they should have conceded 3-4 more goals and scored 4 fewer.
I think we will see a very motivated Flu today, they have their huge derby game with Flamengo this weekend and will want to find some winning form ahead of that if possible and a win tonight will also lift some of the pressure off the upcoming fixture.
It was all a bit odd, Flu led early but lost 4-1, they then went to main rival and two time champions Flamengo and won , they have taken 7 points from the three games since the above notes and also won on the road in the Copa Libertadores. It has been a tough sequence of games, but they are in form and xGF says they should have scored an additional 4-5 goals.
They now host Gremio who made last weekend's notes when they hosted Internacional............
Gremio are bottom of the table , winless through 8 starts (6 defeats) with just four goals scored, but they cannot be that bad, they simply can't ! They have finished top 6 in each of the last four seasons and it is a decade since they finished lower than 9th and xGF suggests they should have scored 10 goals. Internacional are also struggling and after finishing 3-8-2 in the last three seasons, were expecting to challenge again, but they are 2-4-4 through 10 starts and only Chapecoense have conceded more goals than the 16 that Inter have given up and xGD says it should be a three more, but xGF that they should have scored 15 and not 10. They had the meanest defence in Serie A last season and it was 26 games before they conceded 16 goals in 2020, so that is a major drop off and shock defensively. Two struggling teams usually means goals and here we have two who are also better offensively than we have seen so far and also, 4 of the last 5 h2h meetings, all played in the last 9-10 months, have seen BTS and that is the minimum I expect today.
The goals never came, it finished 0-0 and Gremio remain winless, with just 4 goals scored, none in the last five in the league, we still have to feel they are better than that , but until they start showing it domestically, it is hard to side with them. They were 2-8 for "on target attempts" last week at home to Inter and Flu are a better team than them right now, so the odds today make little sense. Gremio also made a ridiculously long midweek trip to Quito and back ( 6 hour + flight in each direction) to play at high altitude (2,850m) in the Copa Sudamericana and no telling what strain that has put on bodies.
2 units Fluminense -0.25 ball 2.50 asian line.
CAP have played three times since that 4-1 win, a 2-1 home victories over Fortaleza where they had a lot of advantages and we sided with them, a 2-1 loss away to Santos and 2-2 home draw with RB Bragantino, lots of entertainment and free scoring games and both teams have actually scored in their last 7 starts, all of which produced 3+ goals. Today they make the very long trip up to Fortaleza to play Ceara , the hosts last five home starts have all produced 2+ goals and the three against offensive minded teams all 3+. The hosts are coming off that 2-2 draw away to Cuiaba ahead of which I wrote ..........
This game has draw written all over it. Ceara look the stronger team, but have drawn 4/5 away starts and are making a long and very difficult trip to Cuiabá on quick turnaround and will be glad to get this fixture out of the way. Newly promoted Cuiabá only have five points on board, but played really well in a midweek 1-1 draw with Bragantino (winning xG) and will welcome the "lesser" opposition at home after facing two big name clubs in their last two starts as host (both narrow defeats). This is only their fourth home game (other was a draw) and this is the first in a sequence of three games where they will expect to collect points and whilst they would love to win, it is a game I feel they will come into with an avoiding defeat at all costs approach. They have trailed at half time in all three home starts so I expect them to set up defensively from the off and with Ceara level at the break in all five road games, 0-0 after 45 minutes would not surprise in the slightest and set the tone for this to play out as a stalemate.
This game promises goals and CAP do keep finding (and conceding) them, despite xGD suggesting they have over achieved at both ends of the pitch, especially offensively and until that stops, I feel we should just go with it.
2 units Ceara -CAP "over" 2.5 goals 2.23 asian line.
Japan : J-League
Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe
Ahead of a 3-1 win over Shonan Bellmare two weeks ago, my notes included ...........
Vissel are a big club with massive ambitions and in Asia not just Japanese terms. We have spoken of this and their financial clout many times, but they have struggled in the league for several seasons, however, they did win the national cup in 2019 and went very deep in the Champions League last season ( lost to the eventual champions after extra time in the semi final). They are up to 4th, could move 3rd with the win today and a return to CL football will be the aim and almost demanded by the owners. They are running into form and the goals are flowing, with13 in their last four and they have some of the star names all back now , with Andres Iniesta, still a big player at this level, pulling the strings . 2+ goal home win.
They played an Emperor's Cup home game a few days later which they also won (1-0) and have had a subsequent 10 day break to rest up and prepare for this. Cerezo have played all six AFC Champions League group stage games over the same period, all in Buriram, Thailand, which is 4,000km and two hours time difference from Osaka. It was a tough schedule and the weather very hot and humid in Buriram. Vissel are in good form, are hungry for a top 3 finish and have to be better rested and prepared.
2 units Vissel Kobe -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line.
Shimizu S-Pulse- Kawasaki Frontale
Frontale have also played six Champions League games since we last discussed them and they have only flown back from Tashkent, where all were played, a few days ago. However, I often speak of them as being the best team in Japan (not open to debate) and possibly Asia and they laid massive claim to the latter by winning all six and by a combined 27-3 ! To be honest they hardly broke sweat and switched off for the last two, rotating heavily and they totally embarrassed one of last season's quarter finalists by 11-0 over the two h2h games. They would have flown home feeling on top of the world, with verification of how good they are and to be honest, that 27-3 goal difference does scant justice to the stats they compiled over the six games,they were 26-1 for BC's in the last three despite "barely trying".
If they carry that onto the pitch today , they will win comfortably and they have a great scoring record home and away against SSP and Frontale have watched their lead at the top of the table halve whilst away on CL duty, something we have discussed multiple times in recent Yokohama F.Marinos previews and Frontale should be motivated to get that lead back up to double figures today.
2 units Kawasaki Frontale -1.25 ball 2.36 asian line.
Good luck !
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