Taken from today's subscriber newsletter ...........
Jul 15, 2021
I wrote the following on the clubgowi website last week and I think it would be worthwhile repeating it here, as a starting point ............
We cover the following sports ....................
Football:
"Winter" leagues........ England (usually EPL and Championship, but the odd League 1 fixture), France (Ligue 1 and 2), Spain (La Liga), Italy (Serie A) and Germany (Bundesliga).
"Summer" leagues ..........MLS , Japan J-league 1 and Brazil Serie A.
Tennis: 9 tournaments, with a heavy hardcourt bias (six), plus eastbourne and Wimbledon on the grass and Roland Garros.
NFL: the full regular season (circa 6-8 games per week) plus playoffs.
Golf: we preview every final round on the PGA Tour (almost always Sunday) and also take the odd pre tournament look at one or two big events, especially the Masters.
That seems like a lot, but this is a newsletter and we need things to discuss !
It works out at between 25-50 previews every week and long term, every single sport and league covered is profitable.
We might have different ideas about what "long term" is, but to my way of thinking I am not just going to ditch a league or sport after a poor 3-6 month period after it has been profitable for a decade or more, to me, that just seems foolish and a better policy to step back and review things, start anew if you like.
So I do sometimes take a break from certain leagues, it happened with Italy a couple of years back and we have had a terrific post lockdown run in Serie A. Likewise, I took a mini break from Brazil late last year, but this season currently, knock on wood, we are on fire there. Currently I am not covering Spain, but will return to La Liga at some stage.
There is always plenty to cover and the average newsletter runs to 2-3,000 words, some much longer and is written and priced competitively so that readers can make their own mind up about what they will, or will not bet, which is as it should be.
Clubgowi is not a get rich quick scheme, it is designed as a betting aid and everyone , from professional bettor , bookmaker, syndicate ( I have all of those on my mailing list) to the novice, will benefit from reading it on a daily basis.
The idea is to try and stimulate thought and help us all make correct decisions, the notes are also designed to have future/value worth with regard to teams/players discussed and not just have relevance for the day they are written.
I have no interest in producing regular stats/results, it is old ground, it bores me, the only results that should matter are our own and if you feel clubgowi helps your betting , then I would expect you to renew your subscription, if it doesn't, then I wouldn't, it really is that simple.
However, I did a review of leagues/sports along the lines indicated above for the last 7-12 months. I used post lockdown numbers for Italy Serie A, Bundesliga and all English football, the full 20/21 season for both French Leagues and NFL, 2021 only numbers for "summer" sports which are the football leagues from Japan, Brazil and MLS, plus tennis and golf, I will detail them later. There are some other bets/ competitions, but not too many, these are the staples and they feature every single year and on a regular basis. Looking at everything, profit is about 9%, my own figures are almost +12% ,the difference is that, as most of you know, I bet mainly "in play" and often place multiple bets during a game, this can go two ways of course, but that is what it is and also, the 9% does not include certain suggestions, for example these two, which both produced winners at 100-1 + and which I backed and I know that many of you did too ................
September 27th: Odds for Leicester City and Hoffenheim to both win are circa 100-1 which seems big given how both games are likely to play out, is no lost cause and a cheap bet !
May 7th Championship games : ......any 4 of those 5 pays circa 90.0 -110.0
However, that is not the point for writing today, it is more to give you some idea about the thought process behind the "review". The summer leagues are easy, we have a great profit in Brazil which is pleasing as they were on probation for a while, we are down on MLS and J-League, but early in the season for the former (and on the up after a very slow start) and I would expect both to improve from this stage onwards. Tennis has been decent enough and golf VERY good indeed.
NFL produced a very small profit, I will admit that was disappointing, but we "always" do well there and I can tell you I have worked incredibly hard through the off season and am very hopeful that it will pay off for the upcoming campaign.
Serie A in Italy and especially the Bundesliga played out well, I felt we were a little unlucky in the former to be honest, but I am excited going forward by how well the stats held up in Germany.
France : Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 were terrible ! I didn't like the switch to Saturday kick offs for Ligue 2, that has been the main Friday focus for us for many years and a very profitable league, but on Saturday it just becomes "another" league and also my turnover there was way down (by some 60-70 bets), which might also have a bearing. Ligue 1 was largely stats based and they did not hold up. Both are on probation, meaning I will be monitoring each closely and adopting a cautious approach, but would be far less inclined to "drop" L2 at some stage than L1.
England overall was good , but I have dropped League 2 and will not cover that again in the future, it is not as easy to follow as even the National League , I rarely bet there in any case and have no real "feeling" for the 4th tier. League 1/ National and especially the Championship were excellent, sensational really ! I don't think the fact that the numbers for the second tier were so good is a coincidence, as I have watched almost 200 games live there in the last seven seasons and IMO, that gives me a big edge. I am hopeful that will continue even after Brentford's promotion, did you really expect me not to take the opportunity to mention that ?
The Premier League numbers were awful, but a couple of things, they were relatively "ok" until late season when I had a terrible run and on reflection, I got too attached to three struggling teams and I don't feel this is the league for that. This was not normal and results long term have been good in the top flight and I will see more EPL games live in August than I have in the last 15 years, you just see so much more at a game than on television and I expect that to help.
La Liga remains on the backburner for 2021-22, we might cover the odd game, but nothing more.
This update and review is a one off and is more about my thoughts on these respective leagues/ sports going forward and highlighting that the EPL and French leagues need some attention.
Serie A post lockdown: Bets 189, Stakes 313, Returns 341.13 +8.99 %.
Bundesliga post lockdown: Bets 126, Stakes 209.75, Returns 250.87 +19.63%.
Ligue 1 20/21 : Bets 110, Stakes 190, Returns 166.25.
Ligue 2 20/21 : Bets 104, Stakes 186.75, Returns 160.81.
Japan 2021 : Bets 78 , Stakes 146.75, Returns 133.05.
Brazil Serie A 2021: Bets 43, Stakes 72, Returns 110.78 + 53.86%.
MLS 2021: Bets 31, Stakes 57, Returns 43.90.
NFL 2020/21: Bets 122, stakes 268.75, Returns 272.24 +1.30%.
Tennis 2012: Bets 57, Stakes 99, Returns 106.5 +7.51%.
Golf 2021: Bets 40 , Stakes 96.75, Returns 177.28 +83.24%.
Premier League post lockdown: Bets 171, Stakes 288.25, Returns 257.02.
Championship post lockdown: Bets 194, Stakes 338.25, Returns 415.63 + 22.88%.
English L1/L2/ National post lockdown: Bets 34, Stakes 62.25, Returns 95.71 +53.75%.
Good luck !