There is a follow up newsletter @ 13.00 UK time, which will focus on today's MLS fixtures.

 

Thunderstorms and heavy rain have interrupted play at the PGA Championship and it seems unlikely they will finish the tournament today, with more of the same forecast for this morning and the course unplayable at the moment.  I will take a look at the event on Monday, if there is anything left to preview .

 

Brazil Serie A:

 

Santos- Cruzeiro

 

Last weekend they travelled to Vitoria and I spoke about how call ups for the Olympics looked set to hurt them .....I have really been very impressed with Santos in the last month and they look better equipped to play  on the road than almost any other team in Brazil. However, today they will have to deal with the loss of left back Zeca, midfielder Thiago Maia and much admirer winger Gabriel, who have all joined up with the Olympic squad. Maia has missed only 5 minutes of league action, Zeca has played every minute of 14 of 15 games, he is very important to their transition play and his two goals have both come on the road . Gabriel has five goals and every major scout in Europe watching his every move. These are very big losses, Vitoria are improving, are unbeaten in six and have won 5/6 home games against Santos and as much as I admire the visitors, I do not think that they should be favourite for this game.
 

They won that 3-2 with three different players on the scoresheet, they followed up in midweek with a 3-0 win over Gama in the Copa do Brasil, they were hugely impressive results under the circumstances and of special note was the hat-trick for recently returned veteran striker Ricardo Oliveira in the cup game. He has seen only 145 minutes of action this season, but looks primed and ready to go now and the goals in midweek would have given him a huge confidence boost, Oliveira scored 20 goals in 32 appearances last season, with 15 coming from July onwards and now, with hindsight, getting the 36yo back at this stage of the campaign and "fresh" is probably a blessing,as I doubt he would have been up to 40+ games and the timing, in terms of the Olympic call ups, is absolutely perfect. Santos again had a whole host of chances at Vitoria and are devastating on the break ( see notes regarding the trip to Fluminense below), to score three there, on the road in Brazil, without that trio of players, or a scoring contribution from Oliveira was amazing and they must feel unbeatable right now and each goal is being celebrated with unbridled joy in a very together group.
 

2013 and 2014 champions Cruzeiro have fallen on hard times and currently sit in the drop zone, the appointment of former Portugal head coach Paulo Bento has not worked out and he was sacked early this week and replaced by Mano Menezes, who had 15 very successful games in charge of Cruz last season, before chasing the mighty dollar in China, that was not a success, beyond a major boost to his bank balance and he and the Belo Horizonte club will be looking to continue where they left off last season. However, it might not be that easy and the only game he lost in that previous spell in charge was the first road game and the club will definitely have all eyes on the visit from Internacional this midweek. For today, I have to favour Santos.

 

 

America Mineiro- Gremio

 

If Santos win, Gremio are going to need to follow suit to retain second place and on the road, it doesn't come any easier in Brazil right now, than a trip to basement club America MG. About whom I wrote ahead of a recent game with Sao Paulo ...........

Good news for them is that they host America who have already lost nine times and sit at the foot of the table having scored just nine goals all season (none in their last four starts). The visitors are a "perfect" 6 defeats from six starts (11-2) goal difference against teams in the top half the table and they will have to significantly up their level of performance to get anything from this. They also played in midweek, with a home cup game against lower league opposition, they obviously took that pretty seriously with nine players from the last league start, being involved, but they still had to toil to a 1-0 win against third tier opposition.
 

They lost that 3-0 and have subsequently lost by the same scoreline at home to a Santa Cruz team in freefall and on the road to Flamengo and 4-1 to third tier Fortaleza in midweek ! The formlines are bad, they have lost 12/16, including 8/8 against top half teams with a 16-3 goal difference , all 11 who started the last last league game played in midweek and the Serie C team played 30 minutes there with ten men !  Gremio will be by far the fresher, having had seven days to recover and prepare and confidence in the home camp must be at an all time low just now.
 

 

 

Internacional- Corinthians

 

I previewed Inter's last home game with Serie A leaders Palmeiras , where my notes included ..........

Internacional impressed early season , but have not won in six (five defeats) and parted company with head coach Argel and he has been replaced this week with Inter, Roma and Brazil legend, Falcão, the "eighth King of Rome" was a great, great footballer, who oozed elegance on the pitch, but is a mediocre coach at best and has never stayed anywhere long, he has taken charge at Inter twice before, the last of which ran to all of 13 weeks and I do not think he was first choice this time round and smacks a little of an interim appointment to placate the supporters. This looks a tough debut for him and I am keen on the visitors.
 

Hard to know where to start ! Inter played a very high defensive line which Palmeiras got in behind too often, they won few second balls and made too many "half hearted " challenges and there is an awful lot of work for Falcão to do and he has still to convince that he is the right man for the job. They did post a battling 2-2 draw at Ponte Preta last week, where they equalised with ten men after defensive midfielder Fernando Bob was sent off around the hour mark. However, my notes there included "vulnerable to crosses", "too many players left unmarked in the box"," robbed of the ball far too often", "won few 50/50 balls", plus all the negative comments from the Palmeiras game. They really are in a bit of a mess and Ponte should have won 3-1/4-1. Fernando Bob is supended and they have averaged 1.7 points per game when he plays, 0.67 without him and I have to favour highflying Corinthians at these odds to win for the fourth time on the road and keep their six match unbetaen run alive.
 

 

Brazil: Serie A : Palmeiras - Santos  (written July 12th)

 

Palmeiras can re-open a three point lead at the top of the table with an eigth straight home win this evening, they are a perfect 7/7 currently with an eyecatching goal difference of 20-4. They have only won 2/6 on the road and face a tough trip to Internacional at the weekend, so it is easy to see them going all out for the points tonight and the win will pretty much ensure they stay top pretty much regardless of what happens on Sunday, but it is not going to be easy.
 

Hosts certainly do not lack self belief and I spoke about this ahead of a 3-1 win over Santa Cruz last month ............

If Palmeiras are half as good as they think they are, they will win Serie A, which is what head coach Cuca has been telling anyone who would listen that they will do, since pre season. They are up to second, are top scorers in Serie A and would move into first place, at least for 24 hours with all three points today and obviously, they are very motivated to get them. They are a perfect 4/4 at home so far and will have very big support behind them again with a 30,000 + crowd expected, this and the home game with America MG in midweek are very win-able and real potential momentum builders . Cuca has overseen a very big turnover in personnel and results were not immediate, but he has always had peaking for Serie A as his priority and he looks on the money. He has a very offensive minded squad and has named 7-8 forwards for tonight's game .

 

I spoke about Sao Paulo "only" having a 19 man match day squad on Sunday, well, Palm have gone to the other extreme and named 26 for tonight, probably including the man who makes coffee at the training ground ! That is a big old squad, but I can tell you who are not there and that is defensive midfielder Thiago Santos , winger Róger Guedes and striker Gabriel Jesus, with the trio all suspended. The three have contributed 14 goals between them, including ten (50%) of all on home soil, Gabriel Jesus is top scorer in Brazil , two clear of the pack, despite playing a  game less and is the latest player to be dubbed the "new Neymar", he is on fire right now (seemingly on his way to Europe very soon) with seven goals and an assist in five starts and these look big losses, with he and Guedes both ever presents this season.
 

Now the "bad" news, not many road victories in Brazil, where home wins are once again running comfortably North of 50% (53.96) and Santos are the archetypal Serie A team, strong at home where we regularly back them and poor on the road, where we usually either leave them alone or take them on ! However, they have had nine days to prepare for this, which in Brazil is the equivalent of a month off and are in fine goal scoring form, with 12 in their last four starts, which includes six in two road games, a 3-2 loss to Gremio and a 4-0 win at Fluminense, a match I spoke about last week and there, Santos could have scored eight goals without any exaggeration, they were incredibly dangerous on the break there and Palm, regardless of team news, will be urged forwards by their VERY passionate supporters .  This is a good opportunity for Santos to close the gap on the top three and a win would take them into fourth and within three points of the leaders.
 

Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Monday.

 

MLS:
 

 

Seattle Sounders- LA Galaxy

 

Galaxy recorded an impressive 2-1 win in Portland last weekend ahead of which I wrote .....

Timbers are getting everything together for a big run at the MLS Cup which they won last year, a fantastic achievement for a club who only played their first MLS game in 2011. They came on strong after a slow start in 2015, 3 wins from their opening 12 starts, 12 from their final 22 and they are building up a head of steam currently, being unbeaten in nine and, after conceding far too freely early season, back to back road cleansheets at Rapids and New York Red Bulls have been hugely impressive. They are coming off a 3-1 home win over Seattle Sounders last Sunday and will have been thinking only about this game in the interim.

Galaxy are a very big player in MLS terms and expect to be involved at the business end of every season and they will be again this year, but they had a tough battle in a 4-2 cup win over Seattle in midweek, with the two winning goals coming in the final five minutes. That was their fifth straight win in all competions, but all have been hard won, they did rest some big names against Sounders, Gerrard and Keane did not feature, but eight played some part in that and the last MLS game. We saw last season, that when on a roll and close to full strength, Timbers are a match for anybody and then some, star players Fanendo Adi, Diego Valeri, Darlington Nagbe, Alvas Powell, Jermaine Taylor and Liam Ridgewell have only played together twice all season (both wins) the last time was last Sunday and all are expected to feature today. The last three give the backline a very solid look, the first three have 20 goals and eight assists between them, Valeri is, if not the most influential midfielder in the MLS, then very close to it and as the Portland head coach put it, he is the "straw that stirs the drinks". Adi scored a whopping 14 regular season goals last season from the end of July onwards and when then Portland are firing, it takes a very strong team to stop them and I am not sure that LAG are quite that team nowadays, despite recent form. Home win. Late edit: Ridgewell is set to miss out for Timbers .

 

That was a very efficient win with Galaxy again making the very most of their chances, which has been the same story week after week and all credit to them for that, but that can only continue so long, they are unbeaten in six, but have only had 56 (32.7%) of the 171 attempts on goal in those games and that will catch up with them sooner or later. They won 1-0 here in Seattle just 22 days ago, courtesy of a Robbie Keane goal, his seventh in ten starts against Sounders and he will be looking forward to today I guess. The hosts dominated that game and had a season high 22 attempts on goal and were denied by the woodwork and some poor finishing, they have underperformed all season in truth, but the shackles might be released today, with eight year head coach Sigi Schmid having left the club earlier this week. He has been the only head coach that Sounders have had in their MLS history.

Assistant coach Brian Schmetzer will take charge on an interim basis, a Seattle native, he served as Sounders head coach for seven years during the club’s USL days, guiding the club to two league titles. Schmetzer has previously filled in for Schmid as head coach in four MLS regular season matches, winning three times. Just a change on the sidelines might be enough to shake things up today, the crowd will turn up in huge numbers as usual, maybe more than usual, as the full stadium will be open today, which means they are expecting well over 40,000 spectators and everyone will be extra motivated to collect the three points, with a trip to Florida next week and the post season a bit of a pipe dream unless they win today. The Sounders backroom staff have worked overtime this week to get the paperwork for new signings Nicolas Lodeiro and Alvaro Fernandez done in double quick time for them to be available to play and that will give the new coach far more and improved options. The two Uruguayns are both full internationals, Fernandez played 50 + games for Sounders a few years back so should quickly fit in, Lodeiro has arrived from Boca Juniors, but both have been at the club all this week waiting for clearance, so should know team mates well and will bring a touch of class with them.

 

1.5 units Seattle Sounders -0.25 ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

 

FC Dallas- Vancouver Whitecaps

 

FC Dallas are going to have to learn to handle life without talented and speedy winger Fabian Castillo who made a big money move to Trabzonspor this week. He has only missed four games in the last 12 months, but FCD are unbeaten in those, three were on the road too and included a 0-0 draw in Vancouver and 2-0 win here over Whitecaps, so it will be difficult to solely blame failure to win today on his absence . The visitors have failed to score in 3 of 4 road starts and have lost on all seven visits to Dallas, failing to score in four and conceding at least twice in six.  They will probably not enjoy today too much either, having left pleasant and cool conditions at home, for sticky Dallas where it will be high thirties at kick off, with a "real feel" of low 40's !
 

FCD will be close to full strength and are very motivated to win, firstly to show there is life after Castillo, secondly to make the most of a first free midweek of July in build up and finally, as they have an incredibly busy August ahead, including two Champions League games and a US Open Cup semi final with Galaxy and three points today, will ease the pressure on all of those.

 

1.5 units FC Dallas -1 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

 

 

Houston Dynamo- San Jose Earthquakes

 

We sided with Earthquakes for their last road start, a trip to face Real Salt Lake and spoke ahead of that of prolific striker Chris Wondolowki, head coach Dominic Kinnear's usual strong finish to the season and improved form of Simon Dawkins.............

Real have played ten games in all competitions, including two periods of extra time, since June 15th, they are without a win in seven, kept just one clean sheet in 18 and faced Italian giants Inter here on Tuesday. No one played more than an hour, but all but three available squad members got an outing and the hosts cannot be as fresh as San Jose. The visitors have played only six games in that same 37 day period and have conceded more than a single goal just once in nine starts and given Real's lack of clean sheets and prolific SJE stiker Chris Wondolowki's fantastic scoring record against the home side ( 7 goals v RSL), one might well be enough for Earthquakes to collect at least a share of the points this evening.

Traditionally, Real have been very strong here at the Rio Tinto Stadium, but they have struggled since the (re)laying of what has been termed a "natural grass surface", we could debate for a paragraph or two about the differences between the new pitch and the old, but suffice to say, it is different. SJE were really buoyed by a 2-1 win over Toronto FC last weekend, where they scored the winner after already playing close to 20 minutes with NINE men and then held on for a further 20 for the win. That has given them huge confidence and justice has subsequently been done with the red cards awarded to key midfielders Anibal Godoy and Alberto Quintero being rescinded and both are available this evening.

San Jose are four points off post season pace, but have 2-3 games in hand of the three teams immediately above them in the Western Conference, in his second season back in charge, head coach Dominic Kinnear will "have" to make the top 6 this time round, he and they were a place shy last year and they need to show some improvement. Kinnear is a coach we have discussed often in previous campaigns and I have often spoken of him as a second half of the season/playoff coach and he made a name for himself at Houston Dynamo, with his team always coming on strong from mid summer.  In his final season in San Jose in his first stint in charge, his team went 11-3-1 over the second half of the campaign and he will always prepare and look to come on strong at the business end of each season and we should keep an eye on Earthquakes from here on in. I should also give a mention to Simon Dawkins, his fanatstic form for Earthquakes in 2011/12 earned him a lucrative contract with Derby County, now he is back and after a slow(ish) start, his recent form has shown what all the original fuss was about, recent reports have been very flattering and like his club, he can flourish over the coming months.

 

They earned a reasonable 1-1 draw there, but led for almost an hour via a Wondo goal, so will probably have felt hard done by, Dawkins kind of had the assist (he took the corner from which it came), but it is another forward Quincy Amarikwa I wish to discuss a little. He is (relatively) small, but very strong and the ideal hold up man, as the ball sticks to him as though he has super glue on his shirt and boots and that opens up play for Dawkins, Quintero and Godoy, who are all super creative and they will then try to set up Wondo. It means they can by pass the midfield and play the ball long to Amarikwa at times, with gives them a great outlet on the road when they are at full strength and everyone is on their game, which is the case currently.
 

Houston have tightened up defensively, but have not scored in four starts, or in 5 from 6 and have only scored more than a single goal once in 11 outings (3-2 defeat) and only twice in 17. SJE won the reverse fixture 3-1 without Amarikwa and several regular defenders, or a goal from Wondo and coach Kinnear will have great motivation returning to the club and city where he had such great success  for nine years. One goal might be enough for the visitors tro take something from this and now that they have all their offensive options and for the first time against Dynamo since Kinnear switched, they should be up to at least that.

 

1.5 units San Jose Eathquakes +0.25 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

 

Elsewhere........

 

Orlando-Revolution : Late goals ? Orlando home games have produced a MLS high 13 goals in the final 15 minutes, New England have conceded 6 of 9 second half goals after the 76th minute ( same period).

 

Toronto- Columbus:  TFC end both halves the strongest of any team in the MLS, they are 7-0 (scored-conceded) in the final 15 minutes of the first half, 8-2 after the 76th minute, Crew are 1-6 on the road , which is a MLS worse -5 goal difference in the last 15 minutes. Sebastian Giovinco broke his eight game scoring drought with a hat trick over DC United last time out, he has 33 goals and 20 assists in 52 appearnces, had never gone longer than three games without a goal previously and you know how it is with strikers, once the floodgates open, the goals usually flow.  Given he will be hungry for more and that Crew concede when TFC come on strong, there are plenty of "in play" options and the "overs" and odds for the Italian marksmen to score one, or even two or more ( 5.0-5.50 ) are all worthy of consideration.