Premier League: these numbers are insane!
Jun 23, 2023
The value of watching games live....... make the effort!
No one should know the club you support better than you do and that is a wealth of knowledge that you can use to make a profit, as long you can just detach that support and take a reasoned view of what you know/have witnessed. With a true understanding of where your team lies in the pecking order of whichever league they play in, you can also use that knowledge to form an opinion of anyone you see them play. Sometimes the table does lie and "expected" numbers , xG or XP might help highlight that, but also do not always tell the full story.
For me that team is Brentford , I have followed them man and boy and my family have done so for well over 100 years. They are in a golden period now and have just had their best season since 1938, they have a third straight season in the Premier League to look forward to now, after being out of the top flight of English football for 74 years. They had only spent one season in even the second tier in a 60 year period until 2014-15 , so pretty much always what is now League 1 or League 2.That has never mattered too much to me, it is the club I love and family aside, they have been the one constant in my life and not much happens at Brentford without my being aware of it. It helps that they have been, along with Brighton, the two best run and most innovative teams in world football for the last decade plus, that makes them of greater interest and more fun to follow. However, any information is valuable and you will, or should know more about your club, than almost anyone else setting odds for, or betting on their games, which means that you are starting with a massive advantage, or edge, if you prefer.
This season Brentford have played 38 games, I saw 27 live and that is where you pick up most information, you just see so much more inside the stadium than on television. I opted not to bet in just seven, of which they won only one , so you could view those as tips in themselves. Of the other 31 games, I put up 36 suggestions and also one outright bet (to finish top half). The 37 bets had stakes of 70.25 units, returns of 116.41 and produced a ROI of 65.71%.
In terms of all EPL games in 2022/23, I put up 175 bets total, staking 331.5 units , with returns of 429.56 , a ROI of 29.58%, without seeing so many of the teams live I doubt that I would have bet in more than a third of those games. I urge you to go and see your team play, or any local team as often as possible and when you do, keep an open mind, not all opposition are "lucky" because they beat your club and try to form an opinion of where you rank these teams against each other and incorporate that into what you might see in televised games and alongside xG, BC's , ITB or whatever stats you like best. Even if you have access to more detailed and advanced metrics (OPPDA, npxG etc), they should never provide you with as much information as you can collect with your own eyes.
Good luck!
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