PGA Tour: Players Championship
This is often referred to as the "5th major" and a very prestigeous tournament. The course at Sawgrass was built specifically to host this event and it is a true test and set up so no two consecutive holes ever play in the same direction. we have had a few shock winners and the big three, Spieth, Day and McIlroy have only posted one top 5 finish between them in 13 starts. Driving is less important here than on most courses and it is hard to put a finger on the key stat, although you could make a strong case for it being greens in regulation. I want to look again at Henrik Stenson who went so close for us at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March .............
I expect Henrik Stenson to go well this week.He played solidly in Florida last year and should have won this tournament, trading as low as 1.11 in the final round, but ultimately having to settle for second, one of four runner up spots he registered in 2015. That is starting to get a little worrying (perhaps less so for his bank manager with career earnings of $42m) and the 39 yo Swede will want to register another win soon. He actually turns 40 in three weeks time, I have spoken a lot in the past about how golfers sometimes struggle (like many of us) in the build up to these milestone birthdays and they can often find the years in which they are 29 and 39 tough, but once they have passed and life goes on as before, form quickly returns and that might have been the case with Stenson. Not that his form has been terrible in the last 12 months, he has played 20 US events since the beginning of last year and made the cut in all 20 (actually he has not missed a cut in over two years and some 32 Tour events), he finished top 25 in 70% of those, top ten in 40% and that is consistency personified. He has also played two European Tour events this season finishing T3 and T6 .
He was a promising T11th at the Valspar Championship last week, finishing -1 for the tournament on a tough course, he was -9 on the Par 5's, you could argue that he struggled on the other holes, but Par 5 scoring has always been key to his performance and to him playing well and I take that as a significant and positive sign that he is heading in the right direction.He first played Bay Hill in 2007 and finished 22nd, he did not visit again until 2010, but has played and improved every single year since, finishing 52-47-15-8-5-2 and if that trend continues, he has only one place left to go ! Stenson lives in Orlando and his house is about a 20 minute drive from the Bay Hill complex and he is effectively playing a home game this week, since moving to Florida from Dubai, he has never finished outside the top ten in this event and I expect that to continue and for him to go very close this week,
If he doesn't win, first event after his 40th birthday party is the US Masters !
Stenson was 3rd there and next time out , two weeks later, was 2nd at the Shell Houston Open, he has since played the Masters and the Wells Fargo Championship, neither of which play to his strengths and which we can ignore. He missed the cut last week, but had done so 4 from 6 at Quail Hollow and he has never finished inside the top 50 there. It gave him more time at "home" in Florida and to prepare for another local event ( see above), he lives about a two hour drive from Sawgrass. Stenson won this in 2009 , also has a 3rd and 6th , a top 10 and two top 20 finishes, all coming since the course was renovated a decade ago. He has called this a "special place" and a course at which he has always felt "comfortable".
When he won here in 2009 he was coming of a 3rd place in Houston, his last big finish at Sawgrass in 2013 (5th) saw him miss the cut at the Wells Fargo and finish 2nd in Houston, so all the omens are very good. Back in his home state , on a course which he likes and which holds special memories for him , that 40th year breakthrough win seems as likely to come here as anywhere and we cannot let him go unbacked.
0.75 units Henrik Stenson to win outright 26.0-29.0 general quote.
1.5 units Henrik Stenson to finish top 10 3.50-4.0 general quote.
Good Luck.
