The winning run on NFL games which we discussed last week, came to an end at a sequence of nine, when we had a "push" bet in the Monday Night Game , but we got right back on track yesterday with two winners (see below), a lot of good content and also a indication of which way I was leaning on the third game. In terms of (red type only) we are 11 winners and one push from the last 12 NFL selections..............

 

 

 

I have always loved the Thanksgiving Day games, especially since the NFL moved to the three game format, hopefully I am still saying the same come tomorrow morning !
 

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions

 

We sided with the Lions ahead of their daunting looking trip to Green Bay 11 days, where I was expecting them to bounce back agaisnt the "overrated" Packers ..........

 

Detroit have shown good bouncebackability after heavy losses and their sole win this season came in the game following their only other heavy loss (to the Cardinals) and in a divisional game, last year it was the same and this is a team, like all pro sports teams should, who find a little extra when their pride has been hurt. Also,quite a few of those more recent h2h defeats here have been close, only 2 of the last 11 have been by 12 points or more, nine by between 2-11 and  five by a TD or less and today, a 1-12 point win for the Packers feels about right, given that I also have issues with the home team and they are now under a lot of pressure to get the win and it is more about that, than a performance.
 

Detroit recorded a shock win there and followed up with a 18-13 defeat of the Raiders here at Ford Field on Sunday, where they built on that huge defensive showing in Wisconsin and kept LA scoreless in three of the four quarters, they slipped up in the third and allowed the Raiders to head into the final 15 minutes with the lead and there was much to like about their final quarter comeback. The Lions have doubts about Calvin Johnson and Darius Slay and I would prefer both to play, but line movements indicate good news and that one or both will start and I favour the Lions to win this.
 

Eagles have doubts about the quarterback position, but I think their problems go much deeper than that and there has been talk that all is not well and the mood a little dark in Philly. They were torn apart by Tampa Bay on Sunday giving up 246 yards and five touchdowns to Jameis Winston and 235 yards rushing to Doug Martin and four days is not long to suit those kind of problems out. Winston is a rookie QB and whilst he has all the promise in the world, in his two previous starts he posted an average QB ranking of around 65 against two NFC East rivals of Philly, but a ranking of 131.6 against the Eagles. Lions are improving, Eagles seem in a bad place right now and it feels like the quick turnaround strongly favours the host.

 

1.5 units Detroit Lions -2.5 points 1.98 Pinnacle Sports/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.

 

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys

 

There are a lot of notes on Carolina immediately below the "good luck" sign off and surely no one expects me to jump ship and ditch them now !  I do kind of feel that my hands are tied over the Panthers, we keep betting them, they win comfortably every week and next time out the oddsmakers underestimate them yet again and the cycle starts again. They saw off the Redskins inside two quarters with four first half touchdown passes from Cam Newton who is having the time of his life, he was miked up for the game (link) and just doesn't know the meaning of the word pressure and is simply enjoying himself. The big passes would have made most highlight packages, but the plays where he and the Carolina coaching staff were continually drawing the Redskins offside were no less impressive.
 

Today they have to travel to play the Cowboys on a short week and for once, Newton probably will not be the most talked about quarterback in this game, with Tony Romo having made his return for Dallas last week, during his two months on the sidelines the Cowboys went 0-7, when Romo plays they are 3-0 and they got straight back on track versus Miami last Sunday in a 24-14 victory. It kind of feels like the entire organisation has been waiting for him to get suited up and the team were clearly boosted by his return, but NFL football is not quite that simple and Romo or not, only two of the Cowboys last ten regular season wins have come against a team with a winning record and they are going to be asked some serious questions today.
 

Newton will not like the focus being on his counterpart, but will love the huge television audience and the stage is set for another virtuoso performance.
 

 

1.5 units Carolina Panthers + 1 point 1.98 Pinnacle Sports/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
 

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
 

 

I have to leave this game, line has now moved to almost exactly on my number, so there is no option. My gut instinct says that the Bears will keep this close, but I am a little concerned that Jay Cutler slipped back into one or two bad habits last weekend after doing us , himself and his reputation a few big favours in recent weeks. On the plus side, I think that this is the kind of match up that much discussed offensive coordinator Adam Gase, whom you know I am keen on ( see very foot of this email), could thrive in and this will be his first second meeting against a divisional opponent and an opportunity to put in to operation everything he learned in that opening game of the season. I am kind of talking myself into betting something here ! It would also put Gase firmly in the shop window (although he already is) on national television. Nothing officially, but I might bet something small getting just a 5-7 point start for the Bears (and corresponding bigger odds) to go with that "gut" and to help me stay awake !

 

Good Luck.

 

 

Washington Redskins@ Carolina Panthers  (written November 22nd)

 

I am definitely not deserting the Panthers just yet and I still think that they are underrated and priced up 3 points less than any of the bigger named teams would be with a similar record. I spoke about that ahead of the Green Bay game two weks ago and that, along with my "outright" notes can be read below.
 

Carolina made hard work of a 37-29 win there after leading by 20 points at the half, on the Tuesday after I reviewed our long term position on the Panthers and how Green Bay continued to be "overrated".......

Panthers won both starts, beating Green Bay in the second (Colts boosted the formline at the weekend in the first), they hold a two game edge over the Pack, infact, over every team in the Conference and win the tie breaker, GB have still to play those three other road games and are 6-6 away from home in the last two seasons anyway, they are involved in a real battle now with the Vikings to win the NFC North and I cannot agree with them being favoured over Carolina. That is not to say that the Packers cannot reach the Super Bowl, just that the odds still seem wrong. GB did launch a mighty comeback on Sunday, which IMO, papered over some pretty big cracks and deficiencies in their game which were plain for all to see for three quarters.
 

I am not a GB "hater", far from it, but they are a long way from the complete team and I have just not agreed with quoted odds about them and sub 2.50 to win the Conference two weeks back, was just a stupid quote. Green Bay slipped up at home to Detroit last week in an "upset" to non clubgowi subscribers and I wanted to oppose them today versus the Vikings but the line was within a point of my own quote and I had to pass.
 

At around the same time, Carolina were beating the Titans to go 9-0 and ahead of that, my notes went a lot like this ......
 

Having worked their socks off to beat the Colts and Packers, Carolina have to stay focused for tonight and a visit to the 2-6 Titans, who are 0-4 at home, Tennesses will be desperate to get a win in front of their own supporters, but the losing sequence is inside their heads now and stretches to 0-9 across two seasons and the last thing that the Panthers need is to see all that hard work go to waste and not follow up. The Panthers continue to be underestimated and get about half the headlines of the also undefeated Bengals and about 20% of what the 8-0 Patriots do . If New England were asked to give up just four points today, I suspect you would risk getting trampled in the rush to put down your hard earned cash ! Anyway, I want to make the most of these kind of odds while we can and just hope that the Panthers coaching team are as aware of a potential "switching off" or emotional let down after those big wins as they should be. Titans are better than their record suggests and three of their defeats have been by three points or less, but the other three were by two touchdowns plus.
 

The Panthers defense is MUCH better IMO than the NFL rankings which put them at 11th overall and using DVOA which rates individual plays based on quality of opponent and situation, only the Broncos acclaimed defense is rated superior. Using the same metrics, the Panthers offense is ranked 30th and this is a mismatch ! Let's accept those numbers as gospel for now, mostly because they suit our purpose .
 

Now, back at home and asked to give up "just" three points more against the 4-5 Redskins who have lost all four starts against teams who do not have a losing record by an average of 12 points, they managed just 15 yards of offense in the first quarter of their last road game versus the Patriots and this could also get ugly quickly with Carolina up by 10 at the end of the first quarter to the Colts and by 20 at the half to Green Bay in their last two home starts. Hosts look set to be without Charles Tillman, which will mean their first change to the secondary this season, but Bené Benwikere played the final four games last season at corner and it should be a largely seamless transition.

 

1.5 units Carolina Panthers -7.5 points 2.04 Pinnacle Sports/ Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.

 

Panthers are kind of easy, as we spoke about them and their chances of winning their Conference on Monday...............
 

The Panthers have shown they have a never say die attitute, coming from 9 points down with four minutes left to play to win in Seattle, are no longer one dimensional (winning when Cam Newton has an "off" day), that they can stop the run (this was a major problem previously) and have a fluid game plan and balanced offense. I would put this up as red type if it were just a little easier to play and they were not playing tonight, but I have played a little myself and if you can find 7.50 + for the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC title, I suggest you take it for 1.75 units, going to feel silly if they lose tonight, but that will not leave them out of things and back to back road games at Denver (last night) and Carolina are going to be very tough for the Packers (who still have to play Arizona, Vikings and Oakland on the road after that) and are FAR too short in this market for my money .Ten straight regular season wins for the Panthers and I think this is a premium quote.
 

They needed to go into overtime to keep that unbeaten record and I guess that has influenced the oddsmakers, as I was expecting Carolina to be giving up a couple of points instead of receiving them, in what seems sure to be a close game, that could be key. The Conference bet will not be decided either way today, although we would be in very strong position with the win, but both teams look post season bound anyway. I just think the odds are wrong, Packers are a big name team and a punters favourite and are usually priced accordingly, Carolina always had this on their mind on Monday and will be fully focused today.

 

 

Bears did us a big favour on Monday with that win in San Diego, ahead of which I wrote ......

 

It has to be said that Chicago do have a similar record to the two teams that the Chargers beat, however, after losing their first three starts to big name "good" teams by wide margins, the Bears have improved greatly and since the much maligned Jay Cutler returned, they are 2-2 and the two losses came by a combined six points, including taking the improving Vikings to within a field goal last week, the other loss came in OT. Cutler has posted a qb ranking of between 88.4 and 94.4 in that sequence and is looking far more consistent under well respected offensive coordinator Adam Gase and things are starting to click for Chicago. It is also very noteworthy that their two wins also came versus other AFC West teams with the vanquished Raiders and Chiefs both sitting above the Chargers in the division. That all sounds pretty good and when we also consider that Chargers receiver Keenan Allen is out for the rest of the season with a lacerated kidney, we have a strong bet !  Allen is Rivers go to man, he has thrown to him on 33% of passes (which is HUGE) and the WR has as many catches as the 3rd/4th and 5th best receivers combined. Second on that list is Danny Woodhead who is a running back, not receiver.
 

They had to come from behind to win that and although they probably did not beat much, it was a real momentum builder, kept slim post season hopes alive and gives them something to build on tonight, in what is definitely a tougher road game. However, we "know" that the Bears are currently underestimated offensively both in terms of Gase and Cutler ( see above) and the quarterback is not quite the joke he was in some sections of the media a month or two ago and he posted a rating of 100.5 on Monday. Gase is a dynamo and is said to have a tireless work ethic, all the time he has spent with Cutler this season is starting to pay off and even the pick six he threw against the Chargers did not concern him, whereas before it would have been the catalyst for a bit of a meltdown. The Bears host Denver and then go to Green Bay after this and if they could find a way to edge home today, it would give them a real chance of taking something from at least one of those and extending a season which looked over a couple of weeks back. Either way, I expect this to be close and Adam Gase to get a head coaching job sooner rather than later.