NFL betting tip:Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Oct 19, 2020
NFL:Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
The Bills had a very rare Tuesday night game last week when we opposed them at good odds with a Tennessee Titans team who had a lot of issues ..............
Bills are 4-0, Titans 3-0, so something will have to give.
I must admit I am a little annoyed with Buffalo, having backed them at HUGE odds to win their division last season, they went close, should have gone closer, but NOW look like world beaters ! Anyway, their 30-23 win in Las Vegas last week over the Raiders got a big boost when LV went to Kansas City and outplayed the Super Bowl champions on Sunday. Only four teams in NFL history have started 5-0 and not made the playoffs, so the Bills will not be booking any January vacation dates if they win tonight.
We get a very rare Tuesday night game as the Titans have either been very unlucky, or unable to follow COVID-19 protocols and a lot of media in Tennessee are suggesting the latter. The training facility has been open and closed multiple times, apparently 24 people have tested positive at one time or another and at present 13 players ( 3 practice squad) are on the Reserve/COVID-19 list . Players and staff are said to have been in too close proximity, practices have been held away from the facility after the organization was told to shut down and quarantine and they are under severe warnings from the NFL. The Bills are not happy at all, they have lost a high profile primetime game with the Chiefs on Thursday which will have to be rescheduled at a late date and now would have been the best time to play KC.
However, everyone knows all this and it is factored into the odds as they stand this morning.
The Bills should have lost at home to a jet lagged Rams, I know I have to let it go soon, but it still rankles ! Buffalo could not slow down the play action passing game of the Rams in the second quarter and the Titans and QB Ryan Tannehill have similarities to the Rams and Jared Goff. Both QB's take an almost identical time to throw the ball (2.72 to 2.75 seconds) and each throws into tight coverage the same amount of time. The Rams success came when they attacked the second level of the defense with crossing routes and I am not sure the Bills are going to be able to stop that as an option today, as they are without key linebacker Matt Milano, star cornerback Tre’Davious White has not practiced all week either. Add in that the Bills cannot tackle, it really has been a big and long term problem and that Titans running back Derrick Henry is as tough to catch as a greased pig and is already averaging over 106 yards pg this season and plenty of reasons to believe that the home side can keep this close and two of the last three h2h meetings have been decided by a single point.
Last season, ahead of the Titans playoff game with the Patriots in New England I wrote that I did not think the big favourite Pats could win, with my biggest argument being ............. Titans RB Derrick Henry is a beast (that is a compliment BTW), he is 1.91m , 250 pounds and QUICK and he loves to run to the outside and TT are set up to allow him to do that. As "good" as the Pats are without the ball, they are ranked 12th against the run on the left side, but 27th on the right, Henry can go either way and will be exploiting that and good luck stopping him full stop, let alone in an area where you are weak !
The Titans won fairly comfortably, Henry carried the ball 34 times for 182 yards and fresh with the extra days to recover , he will, I am sure be given a big workload this evening and it could work similarly well.
That played out well with the Titans winning 42-16 and providing a wake up call for the Bills. Buffalo played decently on third down, but had to do so too often and they allowed the Titans to score too easily. The home team does get Matt Milano (see above) back today which will help a lot , but those tackling issues and the fact that the Rams and Titans showed how to attack and exploit the Bills defense, hardly augurs well against the most explosive offense in the NFL. The Chiefs have had an extra two days to prepare for this and tothink long and hard about what they did wrong against the Raiders who inflicted the first loss in 14 starts on KC. But LV needed 40 points to do so, a struggling Bills secondary is going to give up a lot of yards if the real (or even close to it) Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes turns up and it is very difficult to see KC posting less than 30 points and I have to side with them.
2 units Kansas City Chiefs -6 points 2.03 Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
Good luck !
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