NFL ..................
There was a free newsletter yesterday sent to everyone in the database and it included reproduction of some recent NFL previews, along with our first Super Bowl pick and also, a look at last night's /this morning's game between the Giants and Cowboys, where we went with a rare double bet............ Dallas won 37-18.
Negatives from the Monday night game for the Browns, but to say I was impressed with the Niners is an understatement, they look the real deal and are only going to get better as they had those two key players out and they have not fully tested Jimmy Garoppolo their quarterback yet,they believe in him, that is not an issue, they just have not needed him. The SF Chronicle wrote this Thursday:
Jimmy Garoppolo just wins.
Garoppolo is 12-2 as a starter, including 4-0 this season as the San Francisco 49ers lead the NFC West. He's a win away from tying Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Philip Rivers, Mike Tomczak and Dak Prescott for third-most wins through 15 starts. Only Roger Staubach (14) and Ben Roethlisberger (15) had more.
Garoppolo earned his first two wins with New England while Tom Brady served a suspension. He didn't get another start until he was traded to the 49ers during the 2017 season and went 5-0 down the stretch for a 6-10 team.
His performance convinced San Francisco to give him a $137.5 million contract. He lasted just three games in 2018, going 1-2 before suffering a torn ACL. But Garoppolo is healthy again and back to his winning ways.
It helps that he has the NFL's best run offense. The Niners are averaging 200 yards rushing per game.
That last line is part of the reason they have not had to call on Jimmy G too often. The Niners are giving up the second fewest first downs in the NFL, they have the #5 ranked defense against the run, the #2 versus the pass, they have the #1 ranked offense running, only Baltimore are even close to their 200 yards pg, it is 34 more than the third best team in the league. Today they play a good team in the Rams, but SF are giving up 7.4 first downs less than LA, next biggest differential in any match up today is 4.8 and after that 3.2 ! They are allowing 4.3 points less in the first half and 8.2 (!) in the second than the Rams and I do not see LA having the ball enough to do sufficient damage to this Niners team today and to be honest, I am VERY excited by SF.
The offense is clicking like never before under head coach Kyle Shanahan, they’re top five in yards per game, rushing yards and points per game. They rushed for those 200 yards, despite losing Tevin Coleman for two starts, he returned v the Browns rushing for 97 yards on 16 carries with a touchdown, this is a team with running options the like of which we may never have seen before. This is what really gets me excited, the NFL is a passing game now, but the Niners do something no one else does, it is not really a throwback, as it is so explosive and no less dynamic than the pass , it also means teams are not used to seeing or dealing with it and the Niners are ahead of the game. They have always been an innovative franchise, think of the West Coast offense under Bill Walsh, I spent a lot of time in SF then and Rice and Montana were a thing of beauty, although Jerry Rice, who will always be top 10 in the GOAT, would have made Baker Mayfield look world class !
The Niners defense is playing with an intensity we have not seen for so long in SF and they have 11 turnovers through four games, after just 7 all season in 2018. Kwon Alexander was a very big acquisition in the off season and brought some oomph with him, he recorded three tackles in the first quarter against Tampa Bay before being ejected, but then followed up with six and seven tackles the following two weeks. Fred Warner continues to rack up tackles too with 25 on the season to follow a rookie year where he finished with 124.So many plus points, amongst the Tight Ends especially, if there is a weakness, everyone comes up with the wide receivers, but Dante Pettis came up big when required against the Steelers and as I started by saying, the receivers and Jimmy G have not been required to do much yet.
If there is value in the Super Bowl betting at this stage it is surely with the Niners, they are 4-0 for the season and the franchise has advanced to at least the NFC Championship Game in each of the previous two seasons in which they started 4-0.
We can start a Super Bowl portfolio today, we will doubtless add to it over the coming weeks, might even back the Niners again, but let's make a start with ......
2 units San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl @ 17.0 general quote.
Not quite a maximum bet, but close and win or lose, I have to bet lines like this strongly...........3 units San Francisco 49ers to beat the Rams 2.50 Money Line Pinnacle/Vegas Line/Sportmarket Pro.
Big injury issues for Seattle, questionable for Sunday are safety Bradley McDougald, who did not practice all week due to a back injury, left tackle Duane Brown, who missed last week’s game with a biceps injury, defensive end Ziggy Ansah, who injured his ankle making a key play in last week’s game, guard D.J. Fluker, who was out last week with a hamstring injury, and defensive end Quinton Jefferson, who was limited in practice Thursday and Friday due to an oblique injury. Out for the Seahawks is tight end Will Dissly, who sustained a season-ending Achilles injury last weekend. Safety Lano Hill is officially listed as doubtful with an elbow injury, though Carroll said he won’t play. With Hill sidelined, if McDougald isn’t able to play, that will mean rookie Marquise Blair would make his first start at safety alongside Tedric Thompson.
Even if some or most make it, they are banged up and, playing their natural running game is their default under such circumstances, but the Ravens will be happy with that and look better at it on both sides of the ball ! If the Seahawks do throw, they will have to deal with the return of a favourite son in free safety Earl Thomas, who Baltimore acquired this offseason via free agency. After nine years in Seattle and superstar status, Thomas is more than familiar with any tricks quarterback Russell Wilson and the Seahawks could throw his way and the Ravens will look to him to put a stop to any big offensive plays.
Baltimore quarterback, Lamar Jackson, became the first player in history last week to both throw for 200 yards and run for 150 against a poor Bengals team that the Ravens looked set to beat by 20 + points before Cincy started gambling and having luck with the pass on long situations (see my preview of that). I am not worried about that, if Seattle are forced into the same, it means they are trailing and I suspect Thomas will know what to expect and it takes the Seahawks out of their preferred game plan.
They had a bye week after, so 14 days to go home rest and prepare solely for Brady and co. If I had to name a team and QB to beat the Pats it would only be SF or the Ravens and maybe Baltimore are the better option. Jackson is only 22 and Tom Brady, who is 20 years older, had three super Bowl rings by the time the youngster turned 10 ! Brady has done it all multiple times, is a natural leader and might be the GOAT, but Jackson is the only quarterback to throw for 1,600 yards and run for 500 in the first seven games of a season and can do things that Brady would not even dream of, even if he was still in his 20's ! I like the Ravens, think they will be involved in the post season and can ask the Patriots questions only Buffalo have so far and perhaps do it better and more forcibly !
3 units Baltimore Ravens to beat the New England Patriots 2.45 Money Line.... Vegas Line/Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.