MLS betting preview: Chicago Fire- New York Red Bulls and a week is a long time in politics ........

Oct 25, 2015
football betting tips -

The old saying goes that a week is a long time in politics and that goes equally for football and ten days ago I updated my pre season notes on Brentford and those thoughts are reproduced below  the "good luck" sign off and I think they bear another look at.

Brentford have taken nine points from three starts since and perhaps of equal importance they have put in their two best performances of the season in winning the last two at Wolves and Charlton (who were poor) by a combined 5-0.

There was a lot of good content in those notes, if you only want to talk about potential winners or good bets thrown up, the Bees were 2.15 to beat Rotherham, circa 4 to win at Woves and 2.80 yesterday, the 3.50 to finish top 12 ( they are already up to 12th btw !) is down to just over even money and the 16-1 to make top 6 is now 6-1 or similar , but that is not what I mean.

The whole notes gave a lot of background information as to how a modern, progressive club is being run and I doubt you could name a club in Europe who are more progressive and cutting edge than tiny old Brentford, what they are doing now is going to influence how many clubs are run for the next 10-15 yeras and I have been telling many of you this for several seasons, it is important stuff !

Also, we touched upon how key training sessions are and I often speak about this, players play for 90 minutes most weeks, maybe 180, they probably train for 9-10 times that, how can what happens out on the training pitches not be absolutely vital ?

A couple of good sessions can transform a season and vice versa and a little work finding out what is going on day by day at clubs will almost always pay off, but that is true of most research.

Anyway, the future is bright, it is coloured red and white and do not discard those long tern betting slips just yet.  Three "starters" are due to return in the next month or so and this is a team who will get stronger the longer this season goes .

Back to today and two more football previews, which will make six football and one golf selections for today, with NFL still to come............

MLS: Chicago Fire- New York Red Bulls

We went "big" on DC United last weekend to see off a Chicago Fire team for whom the season cannot end quickly enough ........

This is all about motivation for me and how both teams are likely to approach this game. Fire have only avoiding the wooden spoon for finishing last in the Eastern Conference to play for and will have to look for all three points, they have already lost both previous meetings to DCU, 3-1 here in early June and in the Windy City just three weeks later. At the time of the second of those victories, few would have disputed DCU's claim to be the best team in the East, but after taking just 13 points (4-1-7) since June turned into July, I doubt anyone, outside of DC,  would argue too long about that now. However, a win over NYCFC last time out did stop the rot and they have huge incentive to collect all three points today, as a win would take them up to second and in pole position to avoid that early playoff round that we have discussed a lot this week.

So, two teams surely playing an open style, DCU do not "do" draws in any case, just one in 12 starts and with one point today of limited use, surely it will be all or nothing and if there is to be a winner, you would not wish to bank on a Fire team who have yet to post a road win all season, actually not one since July 12th 2014, that is 24 starts, 0-7-17 with 52 goals conceded over that sequence ! The win over New York sealed a post season spot for United and with it , I guess a lot of pressure was lifted and I just get the feeling we might see a return to early season form today. Anyway, I just cannot agree with the odds quoted and so my hands are tied ...............

They lost that 4-0 and will surely want to end their season on a  happier note, the problem is that is their only motivation, confidence is a little shot and they are playing the best team in the Eastern Conference !

Red Bulls already have the #1 post season raking in their conference, but three points today would ensure that they also take the Supporters Shield which is awarded to the team with the best regular season record in the MLS. The value of that in playoff terms is debatable and we have already discussed that, but it carries with it a CONCACAF Champions League place and whilst the competition is not viewed the same in the US as the UEFA and AFC versions are elsewhere in the world, it will doubtless become increasing important. I do not want to sound xenophobic but competitions which do not solely involve US teams and/or the name "World Champions" and which they are going to win every time (!) have little interest in America, but I digress !

New York will claim the Shield and the first trophy for coach Jesse Marsch, that will be a big deal for him I guess and after last week's easy 4-1 home win over Philadelphia Union, he addressed the crowd at Red Bull Arena and said:“We’re going after the Shield and then the MLS Cup ! " That was a big statementt for him as Marsch has made it a priority to play down ambitions for this, his first year in charge.

Red Bulls have lost two of their last five, but did not need to win that pair of games and we spoke about Toronto having all the motivation in the world for the second of those and when NY have had to win, they have always stepped up and shown their best under Marsch and they find it hard not to impress, even when losing. They have dominated possession, pass completion, and shot statistics in all five of those matches and there have been few games this season they have not impressed statistically. They put the match against Philadelphia to bed early and meet a similar level opponent today, we will see plenty of high pressure and final third ball retention today and I cannot see beyond a comfortable away win.

Fire have dominated h2h meetings in the Windy City traditionally and we backed them off level ball when the two last met here back in August and they edged home 3-2, but the circumstances favoured the hosts that day and the two have gone in opposite directions since and that defeat is likely to only add to Red Bulls motivation, adding a little revenge into the mix.

1.5 units New York Red Bulls -0.5 ball 1.90 asian line/Sportmarket........there is still bigger available elsewhere.

 

Good Luck.

 
Written October 15th....

 

After discussing League 1 and the EPL where we have very strong positions on Gillingham, Crystal Palace and Arsenal, it is time to look at the Championship and our other long term bet on my beloved Bees. That looks in poor shape at the moment and they have just eight points after ten games and they have not really played well for the full 90 minutes yet. It is a shame as we have done really well with long term bets on them in each of the last three seasons and not to get a run for our money is going to be very disappointing, but I am looking at a way to at least get our money back and I am failrly confident that we will somewhere along the line and let's remember, eventual champions Bournemouth were 15th with just 12 points at this stage of last season.

My pre season notes on Brentford are at the foot of the email and let's start with a quick look at what has happened since I wrote those...........where to begin ?  It is hard to decide, as there is so much, but I will give some brief highlights and then get to the main point ........
 

They appointed Marinus Dijkhuizen as head coach and Roy Hendriksen as his number 2 in June and I NOW understand that as early as the pre season training camp in Portugal in July, the club realised that they had made an error and that the duo were way out of their depth. Brentford tried to give them as much help as possible, but it was doomed to failure and although outsiders might consider this a quick kneejerk decision, it had nothing to do with results and in actual fact, was three months in the making. Lee Carsley has been given the job until the "end of the season", but he doesn't want it long term and my feeling is that the "end of the season" part of the appointment was to put the media off and that it is infact, until they find the correct guy for the job and that might be the end of the season, it might equally be this, or next month !
 
They had a debacle with the pitch/playing surface which we have discussed before, it never bedded in after ripping up the old surface to lay undersoil heating in the summer and it caused at least one serious injury and was unplayable, it had to be relaid a second time, meaning the postponement of a home game and came at great financial cost.
 
They then lost Jonathan Douglas, Stuart Dallas , Moses Odubajo and Andre Gray in the transfer market. JD was a big presence at the club, but it is said , an increasingly disruptive influence, coming towards the end of his career , his time left at the club was always going to be short and if the squad was fit, playing time limited, Dallas has great potential, but was seen as more of a fringe player and wanted to start regularly, something Leeds United promised him, I have no problem with either leaving. Odubajo had a "cheap" release clause which his agent exploited (that is football) and I do not think that Gray wanted to leave, but who is going to turn down making 3-4 times their current salary ? Bees cannot compete with those wage demands because of Financial Fair Play rules, which the club are determined to stay within, regardless of what other clubs do, Brentford received about £14m in fees, which loosens those FPP restrictions for the time being.  The timing of the loss of right back Odubajo and striker Gray who played a pivotal role in a 4-2-3-1 formation was very bad.
 
Losing the pair might not have been so terrible had they not had an amazing run of bad luck regarding injuries. Andreas Bjelland (record signing), Maxime Colin ( brought in to replace Moses) , Josh McEachran, Lewis Macleod, Jota and Scott Hogan are all out with season long/lengthy injuries and 6-7 others have been sidelined with shorter term problems. With 15 new signings arriving this season, some of whom were players to build a starting eleven around ( a couple of whom got injured without making an appearance), it has meant blooding others before they were up to speed and also playing them out of position on occasion. For one game the Bees had just six on the bench including two keepers and three youth team players.
 
It is hard to think exactly what could have gone wrong, which didn't.
 
In terms of the long term ambitions and where the club is heading, nothing much has changed, they are one of the most innovative clubs in world football and this is a minor blip. The blueprint for success worked last season and at FC Midtjylland which Matthew Benham also owns, both last and this season. I am trying to rush through all this as I don't want to overly bore everyone, but with regard to the future of football and how smaller clubs and they do not come much smaller than Brentford at this level, can compete, this is incredibly important and interesting and Benham, who is probably the most successful sports bettor of all time, a really smart guy who one understands football better than any other owner in football, is a key figure. He gave an interview yesterday at TradersCon2015 , which I was waiting for before posting these notes. I found it very informative and I hope that you will too, this is the only link I could find (NOW REMOVED) the sound quality is not good, but it is worth persevering with, he talks a lot about (mainly) Brentford and analytics and by the way, the book he (always) recommends and mentions is Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, which I can also endorse and there is a dog-eared copy which always sits on my desk !  I think that taking a look at both is the best tip I can give you today.

 Edit: The Guardian also picked up on some of MB's "speech" this morning.
 

We have seen glimpses of what Brentford are capable of in 20-30-45 minute spells this season, I am hopeful that 14 days working with Carsley will improve cohesion and maybe also fitness levels, which have not been as good as for the last three seasons, but part of that has been overseas players trying to get up to speed with Championship football, which is played at a ferocious pace, before they were ready. Good news is that they are getting there and Macleod and Jota are going to be the first two of the long term injured to return and that should be in the next 2-4 weeks. McEachran and Colin are likely to follow before Christmas, new signings Woods, Vibe, Djuricin and Hofmann should continue to settle and improve, short term loanees Canos and Swift have shown talent and can contibute in the interim and we can expect the Bees to improve and they should be strong for the second half of the season. What they really need now is a win and I am hopeful that it will come at home to Rotherham United this weekend, my friend saw a training session this week and one 3-4 weeks ago and said the improvement between the two was palpable. I cannot bring myself to tip them at the moment, but feel that they are a decent price now and in two months time I/we might be wondering just how that we let the 2.10/2.15 to beat the Millers go unbacked !
 

I do think that 3.0-3.50 for them to finish in the top half of the table is a very good price indeed and if that was freely available I would definitely have put that up as a solid selection (if you can bet it...you should). I must own up to taking a little 16-1 for them to finish top 6 this week, it is a very big ask, but we "know" that they are going to improve and I am just unable to resist big odds quotes.

 

 

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Sport: 
Football
Competition: 
English Championship
Football Teams: 
Brentford

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