A bet we have done very well with in MLS is road teams to score twice ( "over" 1.5 goals), this is a relatively high scoring league anyway even with a few teams bucking that trend and of course, we are usually swerving those and MLS has a less home win heavy bias than it did in the past. There were 55.6% home wins in 2017, 53.96% the following season and 52.21 in 2019, but a very steady 47.26% / 47.93% / 48.94% / 47.46% through the subsequent four seasons and that circa 8% drop off is significant.

 

Last week saw six teams score 2+ goals on the road, four registering 3+ goals.

 

Anyway, that forms the basis of the bets today and we have four road teams I see as "improving", having traded very well and/or bravely in the off season and facing opponents who have not, might be in transition and who have either other priorities for now, or are conceding too freely.

 

 

St Louis City actually won the Western Conference in their first season as an expansion team which was incredible, but I do not consider them of that level. First up, their 56 points would only have got them 4th place in 2021 and would have seen them 11 behind LAFC in 2022, so it was a low total and they picked up 15 of those from their first five games when teams had no data on them and only 12 came from their final 10 starts, once teams did and they were hammered in the first postseason round, also xP placed them 8th in their Conference, 12 points inferior. They have conceded 5 goals in their last two starts.

 

DCU are another team for whom it was all change, they had a revolving door policy and a clear intention to change their style of play and seemed delighted that Red Bulls decided not to appoint Troy Lesesne on a permanent basis after he got them into the playoffs as interim boss with a strong finish to their season. Late in the campaign I noted....... 

 

It was odd to let him leave, but it appears NYRB want a change in style and not the hard pressing, high tempo football which was their trademark for so long. That will now be United! They have made a solid start, 5 points from their opening three games and then a loss to star studded Inter Miami, no shame in that, especially when we see they created 15 attempts, 11 ITB, 7 on target with 5 BC's. The players have bought into the Lesesne tactics and their hard press caused Inter a lot of problems and through 4 games United have led the league in "challenge intensity" and have 31 "dangerous recoveries". They have created the 3rd highest xGF and had the most attempts on goal in the league with a shoot on sight policy. 

 

2.5 units DC United to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.74 asian line.

 

Good luck!