Troyes recorded their first win of the season last week, with a surprise 3-1 win at Lille, who boosted the formline with a 5-1 demolition of Bordeaux in midweek and point at Marseille last night. That will give the basement club huge confidence and despite being without two goal hero Jimmy Cabot today, the goals have been flowing anyway, with 13 in their last five , the breakthrough league victory being preceded by a 3-1 road win in the cup and a home loss to Rennes where they led 2-0 early. Ahead of that, my notes included...........
I discussed Troyes home game with Toulouse in early December ......
These are the bottom two in Ligue 1 and that oft repeated clubgowi mantra of two struggling teams equalling goals, comes firmly into play. Toulouse gave themselves a massive boost with a 2-0 home defeat of Nice on Saturday, but were helped greatly by an early red card to the visitors, Troyes probably got what they expected at the weekend, a 4-1 loss to PSG in the capital. Expectations would have been very low for that and they would have made the trip with one eye on this game and they will have to firmly target three points this evening and take big chances to get them. The hosts look well short of top flight quality and are already seven points shy of Toulouse , nine adrift of safety and have yet to win after 15 starts, which is no real surprise given that they are conceding at the rate of exactly two goals per game. However, they have three of four pre Christmas starts here on home soil and this is a good and possibly last chance to kick start an unlikely survival bid, but three points tonight and nothing less are required to start the ball rolling.
It is hard to say exactly why Troyes have fared so badly through their first 15 games, collecting 11 and 21 points respective fewer than fellow promoted clubs Gazelec and Angers, especially as they finished at least 13 points ahead of both last season! There have been recent signs that form is improving and I would not be surprised if they won this evening, but it is hard to make a case for them doing so without conceding and they have not kept a clean sheet since August. Having said that, there should be goals in this for Troyes, Toulouse have not kept a clean sheet themselves in ten away starts, conceding at the rate of 2.6 goals per game, giving up two or more in eight of those and given that and the desperate need for the hosts to really push.
Toulouse won that 3-0, Troyes have performed better since in general terms, but are still without a win and are now 12 points from safety. They have drawn three league games subsequently and scored in a heavy road loss to Lyon, progressing in a high scoring cup road game against lower level opposition. Draws are useless given their plight and they have to play for all three points, but defensively are a mess once they open up and have conceded at the rate of 1.95 goals per game this season. Rennes are in upper mid table thanks to their fine road form which has seen them lose just once away from home and score in all 12 (league and cup) games this season, two or more in five. They have score twice in 42%, once in 100% and with Troyes given up just shy of two per game, it is easy to see value in circa 2.25 for the visitors to score two or more, especially as they get wide players Kamil Grosicki and Paul-Georges Ntep , who have 7 goals and 4 assists between them from just a combined 23 appearances, back today, but I think that we get better odds with the "over" goal line, as Rennes arrive without centre back Mexer ( missed 13 starts in two seasons, just two wins and two clean sheetsin his absence) and left back Ludovic Baal (just one clean sheet in seven without him this season). Both to score looks likely and with each team surely pushing for the win, my bet will be (over).
Their situation is little changed, a draw will not help their cause and they will have to take chances pretty much in every game from here on, but last week's win will give them a spring in their step and a mid table opponent , who are missing an important defender and are starting to open up a little, seems just about perfect for our and Troyes needs.Nantes have scored twice in their last three starts, including two 2-2 draws and arrive without central defender Koffi Djidji and they have conceded 0.54 goals more per game in his absence this season. The visitors conceded 17 goals in the first half ( 19 games) of this season, the same number as they did in both 13/14 and 14/15, which is a little odd, in both of those campaigns they gave up 9 and 6 goals more respectively through the second half of the season, in their promotion campaign it was 11 and 18 and there are signs that they are again opening up a little and playing with more "freedom" and they can play their part in at least a mini shootout. Nantes have the reputation of being a defensive minded team , matches are priced accordingly and we can (hopefully) take advantage of that today and possibly also in the near future. Good chance for Troyes to follow up, but I do not think that win without conceding and the "over" gives us many more options, so ............
1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Troyes : Bernardoni, Dreyer, Mavinga, Ngcongca, Saunier, Traoré, Azamoum, Ben Saada, Camus, Confais, Court, Darbion, Karaboué, Nivet, Jessy Pi, Thiago, Gueye, Jean.
Nantes : Dupé, Riou, Cana, Dubois, Lenjani, Moimbé, Sabaly, Vizcarrondo, Adryan, Bedoya, Gillet, Gomis, Thomasson, Touré, Audel, Bammou, Sala, Sigthorsson.
Good Luck.
