Ligue 1 betting preview..............
Mar 18, 2022
I have sent subscribers seven previews today, which allows some leeway wiith regard to being able to post on the website, so have opted for a foot of the table Ligue 1 fixture................
Ligue 1: St Etienne- Troyes
Second Friday game in a row for St Etienne and that helps in terms of staying on the same training schedule for another week. Seven days ago they recorded a nice 0-0 draw away to defending champions and improving Lille, ahead of which I touched upon how the Greens were also in good form ...........
Just a few words about this fixture, I do not doubt that defending champions Lille are the better team and they are finding some form after a terrible start to this campaign, but I am not sure the value is with them this evening. The hosts are up to 7th, 5 points behind 3rd place on the back of 10 points and four clean sheets (10-2 for BC's) from their last four starts. However, they play Chelsea here on home soil in midweek in the Champions League and although overturning a 2-0 lead for the visitors and holders is a massive ask, the game is hanging over Lille like the Sword of Damocles and the off pitch issues for the London side (owner Roman Abramovich has had his UK assets frozen) hardly help the Blues and kind of "force" the hosts into being more positive about that game ! Also, Lille have won just 2/7 games prior to CL fixtures this season.
St Etienne are only a point above the drop zone, but are 4-1-1 in their last six starts (picking up 52% of seasonal points) losing only to PSG (3-1) and in their other five starts in that sequence, gave up an average of just under 0.7 xG , so we can make a claim for them being as miserly as Lille recently. These two clubs have drawn the last three h2h meetings and a fourth would not surprise and is attractively priced. Lille have won just 6/13 home starts, concededing 9 more goals here than at the same stage last season, when they were 8-4-1 and overall, they have gone from the best defensive unit in France by some way in 20/21 to the 10th best in 21/22 , albeit with improving numbers.
It was a game of very few chances and St Etienne are playing at a good level right now, they are solid defensivelyand should be able to (comfortably) pull away from the drop zone. Tonight is a great opportunity, Troyes are just two points and three places higher and have already lost a Ligue 1 high 9 times on the road. They conceded 9 goals in the last two of those and with the hosts conceding so few chances right now, St Etienne should get more than enough scoring opportunities to complete the double, having won the reverse fixture back in November and they are playing on another level now. Saints xGD at home is 8.5 goals better than the real total and they are starting to fulfill that potential after trading well in the January window , both in the loan and free agent markets. Goalkeeper Paul Bernardoni , Falaye Sacko, Sada Thioub have all been starting regularly and they also added Enzo Crivelli, Joris Gnagnon and Eliaquim Mangala, so a lot of experience. They have a top 10 budget, which is more than double that of Troyes ( second lowest in Ligue 1) and these two should swap league positions before the end of the season, possibly today !
2 units St Etienne -1 ball 3.02 asian line.
Troyes have the joint worst second half goal difference in Ligue 1, they score just 38% of away goals after the break, but that is when they also concede 63%. St Etienne have only managed five (joint lowest) goals in the opening 30 minutes of all games and scored 70.58% of home goals after the 61st minute and this game looks choice for "in play" betting.
Good luck !
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