League 1 title race........are we down to two ?

Mar 19, 2024
football betting tips -

League 1 update:
 

2023/24 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Portsmouth 39 24 11 4 63 32 +31 83 WWOW 19 13 4 2 34 20 20 11 7 2 29 12
  2   Derby County 39 24 6 9 69 34 +35 78 WWWW 20 12 4 4 35 18 19 12 2 5 34 16
  3   Bolton Wanderers 39 22 8 9 71 43 +28 74 LWXX 19 13 3 3 42 22 20 9 5 6 29 21
  4   Peterborough United 38 21 8 9 74 46 +28 71 LWWW 19 11 4 4 44 21 19 10 4 5 30 25
  5   Barnsley 38 20 11 7 70 48 +22 71 OWLX 20 9 5 6 35 28 18 11 6 1 35 20
  6   Oxford United 39 18 9 12 62 52 +10 63 WLWL 19 9 6 4 34 22 20 9 3 8 28 30
  7   Lincoln City 39 16 13 10 56 33 +23 61 WWWO 20 9 7 4 34 13 19 7 6 6 22 20
  8   Stevenage 38 17 10 11 49 38 +11 61 LLOO 19 8 7 4 22 15 19 9 3 7 27 23
  9   Blackpool 39 17 9 13 57 42 +15 60 LWOW 19 11 5 3 38 17 20 6 4 10 19 25
  10   Leyton Orient 39 16 10 13 44 44 +0 58 WOLL 19 8 4 7 20 25 20 8 6 6 24 19
  11   Wigan Athletic1 39 17 7 15 53 48 +5 50 WLWL 20 12 2 6 27 17 19 5 5 9 26 31
  12   Wycombe Wanderers 38 13 11 14 50 49 +1 50 WWWL 20 8 6 6 29 25 18 5 5 8 21 24

 

1. Wigan -8 points
 
Portsmouth were our League 1 pre-season selection and are edging towards the title, but it is slow progress and Pompey have a very tough remaining schedule, with 6 of their final 7 games against top half of the table opponents, including four of the top seven.....
 
29/03 Wycombe away
2/04 Derby home
6/04 Shrewsbury home
13/04 Bolton away
16/04 Barnsley home
20/04 Wigan home
27/04 Lincoln away
 
However, Bolton, Peterborough and Barnsley have all faded in recent weeks and it does feel like County are the only real rival and that game at Fratton Park, two weeks today, is being televised live by Sky and will be HUGE! Original notes from last summer are reproduced at the foot of this email and the 11.0 to win the league and 4.0 for promotion are trading at a respective 1.40 and 1.06 (both shorter in places) . Portsmouth have lost just 4 of 49 League 1 games which is an amazing record and the last three champions have lost 11-8-7 games (from 46) and it would be a crying shame were Pompey not to take the title.
 
County's other six games are against teams all outside the top 8 and certainly look easier on paper and they have a game this weekend ( away to Northampton Town) who are 14th and (unfortunately) winless in five, but they do have to host what we know is a very decent and, hungry to break into the top 6, Blackpool side before they travel to Portsmouth. I suspect we will review our position ahead of the big game on April 2nd.
 
Good luck!
 
League 1 : 23/24 season outright (written July 24th)
 
Last season I went with Bolton Wanderers and my first set of notes on them are reproduced under the "good luck" sign off . They finished 5th with the second best defensive record, conceding only 36 goals and the two teams who gave up a similar number (Ipswich and Wednesday) were both promoted and every other team conceded at least nine more. The Trotters were very much in the mix, ticked most of the boxes and in any other year would have gone even closer and they also won the EFL Trophy at Wembley, beating champions Plymouth 4-0 (!) before a crowd of almost 80,000. They are a club heading firmly in the right direction and who I feel will continue to flourish and grow under astute and fair minded ownership who will make well judged decisions and I will be surprised if they are not top 6 again. However, the loss of goalkeeper James Trafford and RB Conor Bradley (see my notes from last season below) are HUGE, the former returned to Manchester City and has subsequently been sold for £15m to EPL side Burnley and Bradley is back with the Liverpool U21 team and I assume they will be looking to loan him to a Championship side to further his development. It will be very tough to replace the two and whilst they have already signed a RB and two new keepers, they look either of lower quality /potential and also, in one case (the main keeper), a little injury prone. Most importantly of all, the Bolton odds are, quite rightly given how well they did, half what they were last season. Having said all that, this is a MUCH weaker third tier than it was 12 months ago and Wanderers should go close and I would love to see them promoted, but they cannot make my short list (of one) this time around.
 
Last season's table......
 
2022/23 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Plymouth Argyle 46 31 8 7 82 47 +35 101 WWWW 23 20 1 2 44 16 23 11 7 5 38 31
  2   Ipswich Town 46 28 14 4 101 35 +66 98 XWWW 23 16 6 1 60 13 23 12 8 3 41 22
  3   Sheffield Wednesday 46 28 12 6 81 37 +44 96 WWWW 23 16 6 1 49 16 23 12 6 5 32 21
  4   Barnsley 46 26 8 12 80 47 +33 86 LXLW 23 16 1 6 45 24 23 10 7 6 35 23
  5   Bolton Wanderers 46 23 12 11 62 36 +26 81 WWLW 23 14 5 4 32 13 23 9 7 7 30 23
  6   Peterborough United 46 24 5 17 75 54 +21 77 WOLW 23 13 4 6 38 25 23 11 1 11 37 29
  7   Derby County 46 21 13 12 67 46 +21 76 LXWW 23 13 6 4 40 20 23 8 7 8 27 26
  8   Portsmouth 46 17 19 10 61 50 +11 70 XXWX 23 9 11 3 34 22 23 8 8 7 27 28
  9   Wycombe Wanderers 46 20 9 17 59 51 +8 69 XLLW 23 11 5 7 32 24 23 9 4 10 27 27
  10   Charlton Athletic 46 16 14 16 70 66 +4 62 XWLW 23 9 7 7 44 31 23 7 7 9 26 35
  11   Lincoln City 46 14 20 12 47 47 +0 62 WLLW 23 7 14 2 22 17 23 7 6 10 25 30
  12   Shrewsbury Town 46 17 8 21 52 61 -9 59 LWLL 23 11 3 9 32 32 23 6 5 12 20 29
  13   Fleetwood Town 46 14 16 16 53 51 +2 58 XLWO 23 7 8 8 25 25 23 7 8 8 28 26
 
The top three were all promoted and along with Derby County, Town and Wednesday were the biggest clubs in League 1 and all massive in third tier terms, capable of attracting 25,000 + crowds week after week. They have been replaced by Wigan Athletic , Reading and Blackpool two of whom have lurched from one financial crisis to another, and Athletic already start with an eight point deduction, we are not sure the money troubles are over with the Royals and they and the Seasiders are having to rebuild. As I said, this is definitely a weaker division.
 
Across the last four seasons, the top 3 places (12 teams total) have been filled by seven who finished between 6th-13th the previous season, which is why I cut short the table at half way.  The three biggest amongst those are Derby, Portsmouth and Charlton and each will be expected to kick on from last season's finishing position, but it is Pompey I am interested in.
 
Portsmouth overspent and fell on very hard times, when, after two FA Cup final appearances (2008 and 2010), seven straight seasons in the EPL and a place in Europe, they suffered three relegations in four seasons, along with three separate points deductions and found themselves in League 2 in 2013/14. It took four seasons on the breadline and almost starting from scratch to get back into L1 which they did in 2017, much of the hard work in rebuilding was done by the Pompey Supporters Trust, but they agreed to sell to the Tornante Company owned by former Walt Disney CEO Michael Eisner ahead of the start of 17/18 and they have been knocking on the door ever since. Eisner is not the sugar daddy type or likely to simply throw money at any project, but he has got the club stable and under him they have finished 8-4-4-8-10-8, they should have been promoted in at least two of those seasons, lost in the playoff semi finals twice and blew very good positions on other occasions but I feel this could finally be their time.
 
Young head coaches have had great success in this division in recent years and none of those would know League 1 as well as 37 yo Pompey boss John Mousinho, who played over 300 games at this level (550 total) including some 70 for Brentford, his first professional club. He only played some 30 odd games in the Championship, but made a good and very long career making the most of his ability and he was always going to stay in the game and become a coach after he retired. John was a leader on the pitch and very well thought of at every team he ever played for. He had a player/coach role at Oxford United, his final club, before taking the job at Portsmouth in January. Mousinho is well educated, attended college in the US, took a UK University degree whilst still playing and his UEFA Pro License whilst also being chairman of the Professional Footballers Association, stepping down from the role to join Pompey. At the time of his appointment, Portsmouth chief executive Andrew Cullen highlighted Mousinho's leadership and motivational skills as key and his contract has only ever been announced as "long term" which is odd. However, I am led to believe it is very long and was only not announced to avoid putting additional pressure on the first time head coach or club.
 
A whole host of well known and successful coaches were interviewed for the job, but Mousinho was named the stand out candidate and the one always wanted by Director of Football Richard Hughes who is even younger, despite holding that role for over 4 years at Forest Green Rovers until September last year. He was chased for a year by Pompey, the two will work closely together and this is their first proper transfer window together and they have been busy. Clearing out a lot of players seen as surplus to requirements and bringing in a mixture of young talent from clubs further up the football pyramid and others with a lot of experience. RW Gavin Whyte has almost 50 games in the Championship under his belt and is a full Northern Ireland international. CB Regan Poole and LW Anthony Scully have both played in L1 playoff finals in the last two years , the former is closing in on 200 games at this level and the latter has a West Ham grounding ( many years as a youth) is still only 24yo and already has a 38 goal contribution from out wide in L1. They have also been scouting wide and far and CF Kusini Yengi has arrived from Australia and scored a hat-trick at the weekend in a 9-1 win over L2 side Crawley Town. Afterwards, Mousinho spoke about the "fierce competition" he has for starting places amongst his forwards.
 
It was exactly half way (23 games) through last season that Mousinho took charge, they conceded just 20 goals from that point on , which if we extend that to the full season, puts them in that elite defensive ballpark that I touched upon earlier and collected 39 of their 70 points, losing just four times and ending the campaign on an 11 match unbeaten run. Immediately before his arrival, Pompey had taken just 11 points from a possible 45 games, either side of which they averaged 1.903 ppg which is usually good for 2nd-4th place and the club were very tough to beat all season (10 defeats with the third fewest), obviously too many draws, especially at home, but fine margins decided those and key areas where they can clearly improve. Avoid the extended poor run and be a little more ruthless in front of goal and if they can achieve one, hopefully both, in a less competitive division, they have to go well.
 
Chelsea academy manager Jon Harley has joined as #2 to Mousinho, after a decade with the Blues and it looks as though there will be some more EPL loanees coming in via his contacts.
 
The club has already sold over 14,300 season tickets (less than 200 remain) which means that the home ends will be sold out most weeks at famous old Fratton Park (capacity 20K).
 
 
 
1.5 units Portsmouth to win League 1 @ 10.0-11.0 general quote.
 
3 units Portsmouth to gain promotion 4.0 general quote.
 
 
League 1: 22/23 season outright
 
At the end of last season I wrote a post about teams that tended to improve in the second half of the season and finished those notes with .......
 
I have a team who have played well in the second half of most recent seasons , sensationally in the last two and who are well aware of this, it has been discussed by many at the club and this is a sleeping giant who have spent much of this last campaign building for 22/23 , they feel that a lot of things are in place and will be investing this summer (additions have already started)  to add the final couple of pieces in the jigsaw and this is now a very stable club. Plans have been in place for this summer for many months, all geared to hitting the ground running, they are going to a pre season overseas training camp for the first time in many years and the structure is finally set off the pitch and this is a club ready to make the next step forward and they have REAL potential. They are low level at the moment, but I feel they could be knocking on the EPL door at some stage in the not too distant future and I see some similarities with how they are now run , with Brentford, with many of the same thinking and ideals, this is not a club who will be firing anyone after a few bad results, as long as they feel they are heading in the right long term direction, for example . An exciting project and one we need to get on board with and they will form one of , if not THE main preseason previews.
 
You can read the full article in this post on the clubgowi website.
 
The team in question was Bolton Wanderers, a famous old club, who were founding members of the Football League, but one who have been in financial difficulties for the best part of a decade , going from one crisis to another, servicing a huge debt and losses as high as £50m per year. They were in the EPL as recently as 2012, spent 7 of the next 8 seasons in the Championship , but found themselves in League 2 in 2020. That first season in the 4th tier they were 19th through 24 games with 28 points, but opted to stick with head coach Ian Evatt (more of that later) and were handsomely rewarded , they collected 51 points from their final 22 games, at an average of 2.32 pg and finish third, claiming an automatic promotion place. Last season, at the higher level, they were 18th through the same opening 24 games with 26 points and then collected 47 points from the final 22 (2.14 pg..........which is better than 21/22 title winning form).
 
The club has been transformed by Football Ventures and Sharon Brittan, who went through the "most difficult administration process in the history of football" to purchase the club and it is a fantastic story...........Lengthy interview with chairperson Sharon Brittan on youtube
 
Stick with that interview if you have time, there is a LOT of interesting stuff in that and much way beyond football and Bolton Wanderers.
 
This is a great piece from the interview.............
 

“Ian Evatt is an absolute delight of a man to work with, he is a fantastic person. He has an extraordinary ability to cope with stress."Part of the industry I think is wrong is that you can lose five games and then clubs change a manager – well that not only brings costs, a rebuild, they take their team, you have to bring in a new one, their own players.“My mindset is that you have to give a manager time to do his job. And never was that better proven than last year when everyone was up in arms in November, we gave Ian time and got promoted.“There’s no other business you’d run on a five-week period, then sack the CEO. It wouldn’t happen.“October here is a great example where games haven’t gone according to plan but in no way, shape or form does that affect what I am thinking about our plan for Bolton. I know where we are going and how we are doing it.”

Brittan thinks Bolton are 9th or 10th in terms of "spend" , top 2-3 in terms of how they are run with a "fabulous" off pitch team (CEO came in from an EPL team for example) and we saw and see with Brentford ,how far that can take you. They had the third highest xGF in the division last season, better than two of the three promoted teams and despite that terrible start, their defence was ranked top 10 and fine margins could see huge improvement in results, especially and mainly with a faster start. Investment looks solid now, they have five investors ( Nick Mason of Pink Floyd is one), including Brittan and everything looks in place for a big push.

Wanderers have sold over 13,000 season tickets, which is the most since their last EPL campaign and the town is "buzzing". This is a club which, after so much upheaval oozes calm and solidarity on and off the pitch and they have the third highest squad "retention" in League 1 as I type . Manchester City and England U20 goalkeeper, James Trafford, spent the second half of last season at Bolton and has extended that deal for this upcoming season. Also joining on loan is 19 yo (he turned 19 last week) RB Conor Bradley , who is already a full Northern Ireland international and he has been in the Liverpool Champions League matchday squad, he is very well thought of at Anfield and provided three assists in his pre season debut for the Trotters. I am also very keen on permanent signing Jack Iredale, the left back really impressed with Cambridge United last season and turned down a couple of Championship clubs to make the move to Wanderers. I expect some more deals to be done, a central defender seems likely, but pretty much all good to go, no negatives and I would be surprised were they not to go close.

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Country: 
England
Sport: 
Football
Competition: 
English League One
Football Teams: 
Derby County
Portsmouth

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