League 1: Coventry City- Sheffield United
Two games today, one NFL and this and the same issue in both, a short priced favourite in each that we would like to side with, but the handicap is a little on the big side in both cases, at least at first glance.
United are our main lower league team for 2016-17 and my pre season notes on them are reproduced at the foot of this email. They fell out of the blocks and gave the rest of the division pretty much a 6-11 point head start. Now they are up to third, just three points off first place and are trading at circa 2.50-2.60 to finish the season as champions, so terrific value for the Blades at 7.0+, they have upgraded the squad since I wrote those notes and have actually played the other three top four teams away from home , which means they have home games against each to come and they have scored an average of 2.8 goals per game across their last 13 competitive starts. United are out of all cup competitions now, so no distractions and it is all about top 2, hopefully top 1, for this massive club.
Today they travel to another "big" club who should not be anywhere near the lower reaches of League 1, but one who have fallen on very hard times financially. The hosts have lost five in a row against L1 opposition, even their previously strong home form has deserted them and their loyal fan base is running out of patience.
The mood at the club is reflected in these comments on the game from supporters and there were dozens along similar lines ............
“Sad really isn’t it, but I have to say I would be happy with the loss (inevitable) as long as we at least put a bit of an effort in.
“This will be a very heavy defeat.”
"We on the other hand are in disarray, rudderless without a manager, with injuries to key players. "
“Was never that keen on Fleck, I always felt he played within himself, but last season he was class and our midfield is worse for not having him and Vincelot in it.”
“Sad to say, but like others, reckon we could be on for a bit of a thumping. Think the loss is virtually nailed on and you just know Fleck will have the game of his life. he’s bound to score.”
“I won’t be booing fleck. A good player that somehow we never saw the best of. For me the best midfielder we have had in recent years.”
"Fleck" is John Fleck who left City for United and featured in those notes below ...........
Most eyecatching appointment and the one that has got even the most cynical United supporter salivating, is the addition of John Fleck from Coventry City , where the central midfielder won every award going last season, everything went through Fleck in his four years at City and he was the engine of the team. As a 16 yo at Glasgow Rangers he was already in the first team and shortly afterwards was named #7 in the top 50 young players in the world, the six above him on that list were Hernanes, Benzema, David Silva, Radamel Falcao, Douglas Costa and Jack Wilshere ! Things have not worked out quite as planned/hoped , but last year was his best season in many years and at 24, he is still a young man and a way off his prime and now has a bigger stage and more high profile club to perform at.
You will have got some idea of the lack of confidence at City right now and they are going to have to raise their game considerably to get a result, but will probably be up for this early, with the television cameras in attendance and United are slow starters. The visitors have a first half goal difference of -1 , which zooms up to +17 after the break, on the road it is -1 and +7. No surprise as they are well coached and make good half time adjustments and intelligent substitutions from a big and talented squad. The Blades arrive at close to full strength and will be looking to put pressure on the other teams vying for promotion, who do not play until the weekend. They looked back to their best last Saturday in a 4-0 win over Swindon Town and I do expect them to win tonight, but am not overly keen on the -0.75 ball , sub 2.0 quotes, especially given United's first half record and that we can expect City to come out fighting.
Final analysis and selection is only available to clubgowi subscribers .
Good Luck.
League 1 outright 2016-17 (written July 28th)
In last season's League 1 preview I spoke about "identikit" promotion teams ......
Last ten automatic promoted teams from L1 have consisted of two who were relegated the previous season , one who was third and another who finished 7th, so, only one team who competed in the playoffs , which I feel is noteworthy, one out of 15 who were competitive the year before managed to finish top 2 in the following campaign and that was a Brentford team who were an exceptional L1 team and thrived in the Championship the next season and this is obviously not an easy division in which to put in a big push over back to back seasons.
That might make things difficult for Chesterfield, Sheffield United and Swindon Town and there are other reasons to look beyond these three anyway, but I will save those for our match reviews later in the season.
The other six automatically promoted teams all finished betweem 10th-15th and with the exception of Bournemouth, who were heavily bank rolled, you could make a case for the other five all being "big" clubs at this level. Spots 10-15 were taken by Fleetwood, Barnsley, Gillingham, Doncaster, Walsall and Oldham last season, you could make a case for Barnsley fitting the "bigger" club mould and they could go well. They collected 36 points over the second half of the season, which would have equated to 5th over a full 46 games and boss Lee Johnson got them up and running after joining in February from Oldham Athletic and they have potential.....for example, all 2,000 tickets for the opening day trip to Chesterfield will be sold by the end of today.
However, their squad looks a little lacking in depth and this needs to be addressed , but they are looking at a potential windfall due to a sell on clause for John Stones and this could be as much as £4-5m if he moves, as expected, to one of the big 4 and those funds could go a long way in League 1.
I can also make a case for Bradford City who have thrilled everyone with their cup exploits in recent seasons and just missed out on the post season last time round, finishing 7th. They are another big club in L1 terms and meet most of the criteria, but their pitch was in a terrible condition last season and despite heavy investment in that during the off season, there are still concerns that it will again cut up , which will not do them any favours. A futher concern about both the Bantams and Tykes, is the number of intense Yorkshire derbies in this division with Sheffield United and Doncaster Rovers all in the third tier, Chesterfield is only a bus ride from Sheffield and these are a lot of matches to play where more than just three points are up for grabs.
Anyway, I think City and Barnsley could go well and I might back one of them later in the season, but for now I want to look elsewhere.....
The two automatically promoted teams last season were relegated Wigan Athletic and newly promoted Burton Albion, Barnsley took the third spot via the playoffs.
In my opinion, what is now three relegated teams getting straight back up in the last six years via the top two places, is a slightly skewed number, as both Wigan and Wolves still had EPL parachute payments, those funds give teams a huge advantage in the Championship, at League 1 level, it means that the gap is seismic and that clubs can pay 10-12 players each an annual salary equal to half the entire playing budget of some rivals, should they so wish and it is very far from a level playing field. That is not an issue this year and the three relegated clubs are not exactly flush with funds.
Three of the teams that finished 10th-15th the previous season (see above) were again competitive and finished 3rd, 6th and 9th (Gillingham were in the top six all season until the final two weeks) and the biggest of those six clubs by far, Barnsley, were promoted.
The three who came up short in the playoffs the previous year ( see above) again really struggled and finished 11th, 16th and 18th and we should have loud alarm bells going off in our heads about the chances of Walsall, Millwall and Bradford City this time round. The team who fared best of those playoff failures last season was Sheffield United, and their 11th place was within eight points of the top six and in hindsight,maybe that was not so bad, although don't try telling that to any fan of the Blades, who have, with good reason, ideas well above their current station.
Their finish also meant they take up one of those six 10th- 15th spots alongside .......Rochdale, Port Vale, Peterborough United, Bury and Southend United .
Sheffield United are the biggest of those by some way, infact, they are the best supported club outside the top two divisions and can easily command attendances well north of 20,000 when doing well and not far short when struggling (19,803 average last season) and they have already sold some 14,000 season tickets for this campaign. They are favourites to win League 1, quite rightly in my opinion and I feel they offer great value at circa 7.0 and my own odds would be closer to 4.50-5.0 and that is a no profit margin book.
There is no missing out in the playoffs this time round to deal with, they have a new head coach who knows the lower leagues well and who had huge success last season, the board have allowed him to upgrade the squad, they meet all our criteria and in addition, have four less Yorkshire derby/local games to play (again, see above) after the success of Barnsley and failure of Doncaster Rovers. They have to go very close and I would be more than a little surprised did they not finish in the top 3. United finished 3-5-7-5 in their four L1 season prior to the last campaign and I think a fifth year at this level after coming close four times just wore them out, they were in the top flight a decade ago and went close to getting back into the PL in three of their four Championship seasons in the interim period and this is a club who should always be competing at the upper end of the second tier as a minimum and they should get the chance next season !
Chris Wilder is the man with the task of with getting them up, he was in charge of Northampton Town last season, they won L2 by 13 points and went 16-8-0 from Christmas onwards and the head coach's profile went through the roof. He is a
Sheffield lad, born and raised in the city and was with the Blades for seven years as a player, a lifetime supporter of the club, he turned down at least one Championship to accept his dream job. Get them promoted this season and he will be idolised forever in the red half of the city.
Wilder's first decision and made within hours of taking charge, was to appoint prolific striker Billy Sharp as captain and he is said to have thrived on the appointment and responsibility and looked the best he has for several years in pre season, where he has been scoring freely, he has 74 goals in 126 appearances at L1 level and will be expected to contribute 20 + this season.
Mark Dufffy ( 45 appearances in Burton's L1 promotion winning team), Chris Hussey (played 50 times for Bury last season) have been signed and bring with then huge experience and real strength on the flanks, central defence was a big issue last year and three centrebacks in James Wilson, Jake Wright and Jack O'Connor were brought in, the last named from Brentford, he performed well for the Bees when called upon in the Championship, but would have been 4th or 5th on the list at Griffin Park and opted to move to secure regular first team football and he will add a touch of class at the lower level. Most eyecatching appointment and the one that has got even the most cynical United supporter salivating, is the addition of John Fleck from Coventry City , where the central midfielder won every award going last season, everything went through Fleck in his four years at City and he was the engine of the team. As a 16 yo at Glasgow Rangers he was already in the first team and shortly afterwards was named #7 in the top 50 young players in the world, the six above him on that list were Hernanes, Benzema, David Silva, Radamel Falcao, Douglas Costa and Jack Wilshere ! Things have not worked out quite as planned/hoped , but last year was his best season in many years and at 24, he is still a young man and a way off his prime and now has a bigger stage and more high profile club to perform at. These look very good appointments indeed and no one has been allowed to leave yet, a couple are being chased by clubs further up the food chain, but if they do leave, it will not be cheaply and they will be replaced and maybe already have been.
Update: Wilder has spent most of the last month chasing Leon Clarke of Bury and it looks like the deal was completed yesetrday, but not fully confirmed as I type. He scored 15 goals in 32 appearances for a struggling Bury side and has 70 in 137 starts at this level and he and Sharpe look the best partnership and by some way, outside the top two divisions . The two have always been especially prolific early season and that could be key, if this sleeping giant can be awoken early and build up just a little momentum, it will be very difficult to stop.
Ok, I will say it, Sheffield United will win League 1 !
3 units Sheffield United to win outright 7.0 general quote, there is a little bigger in a place or two.
Of those other five 10th-15th clubs, Southend and Bury have lost very key players over the summer, Rochdale are always a pleasure to watch and play lovely football, but lack funds to add too much to the sqaud and/or refuse offers for players. I do not know what to make of Port Vale, where Bruno Ribeiro , who many of you might remember from his Leeds United days, has taken charge, he has added a whole host of overseas signings to his squad and that could work out very well, or end in tears interesting to see. I saw Peterborough United in midweek, in a friendly against the Bees, they won 1-0 and were fortunate (of course !), but win they did and they also fielded a team at Lincoln City that same evening, where they led 2-0 , finally drawing 2-2. That shows great depth and they have some very promising talent, but have also missed out on some targets they had. They always score plenty of goals, if they can tighten up at the back and there were signs at GP that they can/have done, then they could go well, but I will stick with the Blades.
