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Ligue 1: Olympique Marseille- Paris St Germain

 

PSG are running away with the Ligue 1 title which is a bit of an understatement and they are "likely", or at least want,  to win the domestic treble and with a 21 point lead and game in hand in the league,it is the remaining cup ties and Champions League fixtures that they will focus on with a couple of exceptions and today we have one. This is the biggest French fixture, with absolutely no love lost between players and supporters and we can be sure that both teams will be fully up for this, but equally certain who are far and away the stronger team. I touched upon the domestic games PSG will have more motivation for ahead of their cup game with Lyon last month and in those notes, head coach Laurent Blanc also "admitted" that perhaps it was hard to always give 100% when you are so superior ............

A quick look at the PSG squad tells you that they are treating this seriously. They claim to be fired up by games against Lyon who dominated French football for so long before the Parisians took over and the visitors and the standards they set, are the team  and benchmark against whom PSG judge themselves domestically and Laurent Blanc says he has no need to motivate his players for tonight, just to point them in the right direction ! Lyon will probably feel the same, but are already 25 points adrift of the league leaders and that after just 20 starts, given that OL are 6th and eyeing up a Champions League spot, that is incredible and highlights the distance between PSG and the rest. The visitors have already lost 5-1 here this season, but will hold onto a 1-1 draw here last season in the league and narrow 2-1 loss in the cup to give them a confidence boost and I see the best value here as this ending the same as two of those last three, PSG winning, but Lyon on the scoresheet. That is priced at circa 2.50 + which I think offer great value when we are expecting  home wins and increased goals in general . I especially like the fact that Lyon were 2-0 down here at HT in the cup last season and didn't lie down, which is all too easy to do against the champions elect.
 

Both teams had midweek games, OM had a tough road game and battle with Montpellier, where they had to see out the game with ten men after the dismissal of Florian Thauvin , who is suspended today, PSG coasted to a 3-1 home win over Lorient despite opting to rest a handful of players and that kind of illustrates where these two teams are at. Things are oh so easy for PSG  and whilst they cannot quite just turn up and win, they will be up for this and OM will have to over perform to stop a motivated visitor.

 

1.5 units Paris St Germain -1 ball 2.57 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

OM : Pelé, Mandanda - Manquillo, Nkoulou, Rekik, Rolando, De Ceglie, Djadjédjé - Alessandrini, L. Diarra, Cabella, Sarr, Isla, Barrada, Romao - Fletcher, NKoudou, Batshuayi, Rabillard.

 

OM are slow starters and have won only twice at home all season, they have a -4 FH home goal difference, which rises to a very respectable +10 after the break, but PSG get stronger the longer games go too and are +16 (goal difference) on the road in the second period and if Marseille give up an early goal, it is hard to see any route back.The circa 2.90 for PSG/PSG double result looks on the big side given those stats, but "officially" I will stick with the asian line.