La Liga football betting tips: Malaga-Real Sociedad
Jan 16, 2017
La Liga: Malaga-Real Sociedad
Seven days ago, when Osasuna entertained Valencia, I touched upon the open nature of these Monday night games.....
I spoke earlier in the season about the increased television money in Spain, or rather it filtering down the food chain a little more evenly and as a result, the greater pressure on teams to do their part and look to entertain and goals are up, 0.31 and 0.38 per game on the last two seasons respectively,at the same stage.
With regard to Monday night fixtures, where teams (usually) have the programme to themselves, the onus on teams to put on a show should be even greater and the last 14 Monday televised games have seen 10 go "over" (71.42%) which is a big step up on fixtures played on other days, which are running at 52.23% this season.
Once "today's" games do go "over", they tend to provide a fourth or more goal with 50% of those 14 also going "over" the 3.5 line, that is noteworthy as the others are running at 26.75% and they include those featuring the Big 3 , who rarely (almost never) play on Monday. So all these numbers have to be viewed as significant.
The waters are a little muddied today by these two being heavily involved in the relegation battle, with Osasuna bottom of the table, five points adrift of Valencia and safety, but once the first goal arrives the game should still open up and the team who concedes be nervous/prepared to gamble.
They played out in a 3-3 draw and there was also a missed penalty, so we saw nothing to put us off at least looking at the prospect of the trend(s) continuing this evening.
Sociedad are having a good season, they would move up to 5th with the win and to within two points of a Champions League spot, that would also give them a four point advantage over Athletic Bilbao their biggest Basque rival . Only Celta Vigo amongst the top 9 in La Liga have conceded more goals than Real and their games are averaging 3.12 per game and they do play a very offensive style.
Malaga surprisingly departed ways with head coach Juande Ramos over New Year, assistant Marcelo Romero (pictured) was appointed to the job the same day, but there was little immediate reponse, despite him having 11 days to impose himself on the team, in a 3-1 loss at Celta Vigo, their sixth game without a win, they have conceded 16 goals in that sequence, two or more in five and confidence is said to be very low and players "under huge pressure and tension". The hosts have scored more goals than any team outside the top ten and their games have averaged 3.23 this season and I spoke in early season about how Ramos had tried to change their appoach and that they had been playing a for more expansive style and their 17 opening games have produced an additional 30 (!) goals on the same stage last season (1.76 per game more). They are now down in 13th and travel to Real Madrid at the weekend and play 3 from 4 on the road after today, so will surely be very focused, like the visitors on the three points today, but even if Romero is looking to tighten things up again long term, that will probably take time and today hardly seems the right occasion to do so.
The visitors are without Carlos Martínez, Mikel González, Markel Bergara, Imanol Agirretxe, Zaldúa and Carlos Vela , they look short at the back and right back Artiz has not played since September and a B team player (yet to make his debut) has been added as cover.
Malaga are without Weligton, Charles Dias, Zdravko Kuzmanovic, Federico Ricca, Miguel Torres , Bakary Koné and Youssef En-Nesyri and are hard hit defensively. With no experienced left back in the squad, with only four defenders named, including one untried teenager, this is an attacking looking home side, with what I would describe as 12/19 being offensive players, whether by choice or more likely need, it should result in another open encounter.
1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.
Real Sociedad; Rulli, T. Ramirez, Aritz, Odriozola (29 Dortsala), Raul Navas, I. Martinez, Yuri B., Hector Hdez., Gaztañaga, Illarra, R. Pardo, Granero, Zurutuza, Canales, X. Prieto, Oyarzabal, D. Concha, Juanmi, Willian J.
Good Luck.
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport:
Competition:
Football Teams: