France: Ligue 2 betting tip: Orleans- Brest
Nov 23, 2018
France: Ligue 2: Orleans- Brest
Brest made the most of a bit of a blip from both Metz and especially Lens before the international break, to force their way into the top two and will be looking to build on that now. They are 8-2-0 across their last 10 starts and led 2-0 in one of those draws, away to Clermont ahead of which I spoke about their awesome record on the road under head coach Jean-Marc Furlan.......
Brest won 3-1 and followed up with a 3-2 defeat of fellow promotion hopefuls Lorient, that makes 2+ scored in their last 7 starts at an average of 3.14 pg and they are an excellent 22-12-9 on the road , that's a 51%+ win rate and they can clearly play to their strengths away from home and look way stronger than the group who finished 5th last season.
I had spoken of that upgrade in pre season ................
Brest have finished 5th in each of the last two seasons, were top two late in the campaign in the first of those and had a dip in form through each and need to step up. They have traditionally been a defensive minded team, who have an offensive head coach in Jean-Marc Furlan (who will be suspended for the first six games of the campaign), he is still working on the transition I guess, but this feels like make or break season for team and coach. I think they will create a lot of chances, on the right Julien Fassurier had 8 goals and a whopping 12 assists last season. he will be matched by Yoann Court on the other flank who had 7 and 11 in 50 appearances for a Gazelec side who did not play to his strengths, and 4+4 in 17 for relegated Bourg Perronas in the second half of last season. Brest have also added two versatile midfielders in Haris Belkebla (Tours) and Ferris N'Goma from Orleans who will both up energy levels considerably. Up front their main man will be Gaetan Charbonnier, not 100% sure that he will be the 15-20 goal man that Brest need, but after missing the start and pre season last year, he did score 9 from 25 apperances and finished on fire with six in his last five starts. He will be the main focus this year and looks sure to get even more service this time round. This is a team who have big potential at close to full strength.
They were dealing with injuries and that suspension early in the campaign but have been on fire subsequently, I have already touched upon the game where they led 2-0, the "other" draw was a game in which they "won" attempts inside the box 17-2 and they could easily be looking for an 11th straight win today.
Orleans have had a very odd campaign, ahead of their opening game when they hosted Lens I spoke about their low budget and how they had overperformed last season and again had to try and unearth a couple of bargain basement gems...........
I have spoken often of Racing Club Lens as a massive club, way too big for L2 given their budget, history and level of support. The former has been trimmed a little this season, but is still by far the biggest in the second tier at 36m euros and greater than that of which nine Ligue 1 teams operated on last season. It is almost five times bigger than what Orleans (4th smallest) have to live within and highlights the different levels of expectation at the respective clubs, Lens had a disasterous start to 2017-18 and simply have to compete for promotion this year as a minimum, Orleans will settle for survival.
Orleans have sold Yannick Gomis (17 goals in 46 L2 starts) to Lens (he is in the squad to face his former team tonight) and had to search for a replacement and any arrivals in the bargain basement. RCL, given their budget, can cast their net wider and higher, for example Massadio Haidara is a fomer French U21 international and had several injury hit years with Newcastle making 38 apperances in the Premier League, if he proves his fitness, he should be a wonderful addition at this level. Orleans finished 3 points above Lens last season , but the bigger club started 1-0-8 and eased off late once they were safe, I am expected a very fast start from them this time round and possibly Orleans to struggle.
They lost that 2-1 and their first three starts (two at home) by a combined 10-1, Orleans then went 7-1-1 (!) and forced their way up to 5th in an amazing turnaround, but they have lost their last two starts both 3-0 (Clermont and Grenoble) two teams who are inferior to Brest IMO and it is difficult to know which Orleans will turn up. They also "lost" shots on target 13-4 in those two defeats so I cannot see those as unlucky, or against the run of play. So a 7-1-1 run inbetween five defeats when they conceded 16 goals ! I suspect they are somewhere between the two, not as good or as bad as either sequence, but their form v top 9 teams is suspect ,1-1-5 with 4 losses by 2+ goals and having conceded 3+ in four and I have to favour Brest today. Hosts are without both starting central defenders in suspended Gabriel Mutombo (lost 3-1 to Le Havre only start he missed) and injured Adrien Monfray( 1-1-4 in his absence, 5-0-2 when he plays, conceding an extra 1.47 goals pg when he is missing !). Two huge losses. Orleans only have one other recognised senior centre back and that is the issues when budget is small and you start to lose players.
1.75 units Brest -0.5 ball 2.43 asian line/Sportmarket.
Orleans have conceded 75% of all goals between the 16th and 60th minute.
Brest have conceded 13 of 15 goals total in the first half !
After the break they have a 17-2 goals difference, which iincludes 7-1 through the first 15 minutes of the second half, so really good half time adjustments from Furlan and his staff.
They have a 9-3 road GD after the 3st minute, 7-2 between the 31st and 60th minute.
So huge inplay options there and clear indications of when the goals might come.
Orléans : Gallon, Renault - Cambon, Droehnle Lecoeuche, Pinaud - D'Arpino, Avounou, Bouby, Demoncy, Ephestion, Lopy, Ziani - Cissokho, Laurienté, Le Tallec, Perrin, Tell.
Brest : Fabri, Larsonneur - Belaud, Bernard, Castelletto, Chardonnet, Henry, Weber - Ayasse, Belkebla, Faussurier, Jacob, Magnon - Autret, Butin, Charbonnier, Mayi, N'Goma.
Good Luck.
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