Expecting more goals at Villa Park ......
Jan 03, 2025
Premier League: Aston Villa -Leicester City
Ahead of their Christmas trip to Anfield I touched upon City being stronger on the road and/or playing better against teams who make the running against them ......
City are in a relegation battle and concede too many chances as we discussed on Saturday.......
Ruud van Nistelrooy has been in charge of City for three weeks or so, he sat in the stands for the first game and they have taken four points, but across the quartet of fixtures they conceded 11 goals and it ought to have been 14-15 and they , Wolves and Southampton are giving up over 2.0 xGA per game.
They must be in a tailspin after that heavy defeat to Wolves and are highly unlikely to be able to trouble the Reds enough to get a result here, but have scored in 6 of 8 away games and will get a chance or two and, last season (Championship), 22/23 (relegated from the EPL) and this campaign they have scored as freely on the road as they have at home and playing on the counter suits them as a squad.
They scored very early in that before losing 3-1 and also created a lot of decent chances in a 2-0 home defeat to Manchester City last time out, posting 1.3 xGF, 3 BC's, 26 TIPA and hitting the woodwork twice. They can play their part in an open game against a Villa side who have won 62.5% of all EPL home games in the last two years, but who also concede quite freely at Villa Park, keeping just 3 clean sheets in 20 home games in the last 12 months and giving up 2+ goals in 12 of those, with 13 also producing 4+ goals total.
2.25 units both teams to score and "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.22 asian line.
Both teams have scored in the last eight h2h meetings here at VP, with the last five also producing 3+ goals. The last two have seen BTS in the first half ( 7 goals total before the break) and City have scored 2+ goals in the opening 45 minutes in 3 of the last 5.
Good luck!
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