English Football League Cup: First Round

106 First round matches in this competition in the last three years and they have produced just 20 draws (18.87%), home wins are running at 38.68% and aways @ 42.45%, we can take from that that home advantage is minimal and that is hardly surprising, as the draw is  regionalised and you have to be pretty unlucky to be asked to travel too far and there are plenty of local games. We could go into the ins and outs of whether the teams from the higher division produce most of these away wins, but the truth is that is not really the case and they are split about where you would think, factoring in that the lower team is almost always the more motivated and many of the Championship teams have firm ideas about targets for the season, based on top six or survival and that this competition is often seen as a distraction.

However, I have found something of interest and that is in fixtures between the teams from the same division, which means, as the draw is seeded, only L1 versus L1, there have been ten in that last three year cycle and they have produced two draws, one home and a whopping seven away wins. Draws are about in line with the competition as a whole, we like stats which fit in with "obvious" thinking and the paucity of draws are easy to explain and no one want to be playing 120 minutes of football at this stage of the season. So, two largely similar and local teams, who do not want to play extra time, still coming to terms with a new season and playing in front of what are often very sparse crowds and a bit of a surreal atmosphere, so little wonder there are more away teams progressing.

Rochdale -Chesterfield
 

Rochdale started with a 3-2 home loss to Posh in a very high tempo and draining game, Dale play an attacking style, always have and always will under Keith Hill (pictured) and are always pleasing on the eye and fun to watch, Hill has made it clear he will make changes today and that several of his players were very tired after the first game of the season. His side have not won a League Cup game inside 90 minutes in five attempts. Chesterfield opened with a fine 1-1 draw with Oxford United on Saturday , with much publicity surrounding the return of Ched Evans playing his first game in 52 months. He missed several chances, before equalising with a very fine free kick, every touch he had was greeting with boos and far, far worse (some of the abuse was way OTT and with a lot of children around) and I would not wish to be in his shoes, but he will score plenty at this level and is clearly a very "hungry" player after so long out of the game. United were the better team, but there was quite a lot to like about the Spirites and if Evans had been match fit, the visitors would have won. Sam Hird will return from suspension today for Field who have very few injuries in their squad. I do not know if they will start Evans, he probably needs games, but will be knackered after so long out of the game , but there is some competition for places, a decent Chelsea loanee was not used on Saturday for example and I suspect we will see Evans at some stage and we have to side with them. Dale have a handful of injuries, hence Hill's need and not just desire to rotate, with an important trip to Sheffield United at the weekend.

1.25 units Chesterfield +0.25 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.

Good Luck.