Eintracht Frankfurt ....some numbers give cause for concern, but they have SO much pace !
Oct 17, 2024
Bundesliga:
| 2024/25 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Bayern München | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 14 | XXWW | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 6 | ||
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 14 | WWOO | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 13 | XWWW | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | ||
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 | WLWW | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 11 | XXWW | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | ||
| 6 | 1.FC Union Berlin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 | WLWO | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| 7 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 | LWLW | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | ||
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 9 | XXWW | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | ||
| 9 | 1.FC Heidenheim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 | LWLL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | ||
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 8 | WLWL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | ||
| 11 | SV Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 | LWLW | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | ||
| 12 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 | WXLL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | ||
| 13 | FC Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 | WLLW | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | ||
| 14 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | LWLL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||
| 15 | St.Pauli | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | LWOL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | ||
| 16 | TSG Hoffenheim | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 4 | XLLL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | ||
| 17 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 2 | XLXL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 18 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LLXL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | ||
A stats heavy look at all nine games and no excuses for doing that, as the Bundesliga is probably the league in world football where the numbers stand up the best.
Borussia Dortmund- St Pauli
BD: xP 10, they should be perhaps a goal less in both goal difference columns, BC's 16-15. ITB 55-40, TIPA 115-118. All their numbers kind of tally, by which I mean they are where they should be and we know from experience they are a club who struggle with the Bundesliga and Champions League, when they do well in one competition, they tend to struggle in the other.
SP: xP 7, BC's 8-15, ITB 54-43, TIPA 141-115. The newcomers are interesting and worth our tracking them a little, as those ITB and TIPA numbers are MUCH better than they should be and they feature high up in some other stats. Number one in most distance covered ( Freiburg #2 and Bayern #3 is noteworthy) and second most intensive runs (Bayern 3rd).
Borussia Monchengladbach- Heidenheim
BMG xP 7, they should have scored 2-3 and conceded 1-2 more. Numbers which are backed up by....BC's 13-17 , ITB 66-60 , TIPA 150-160.
Heid: xP 9, they should maybe have conceded a goal or two more looking at xGD. BC's 10-10, ITB 46-44, TIPA 114-130.
Offensively BMG look the stronger of the two and along with Augsburg the best outside the top 8, but that has not so far translated into goals, but it is overdue.
2.5 unit double Dortmund- St Pauli both to score and BMG to score over" 1.5 goals @ circa 3.0 general quote.
Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt
BL: xP 12 and xGD sees them two goals better off. BC's 21-11, ITB 78-40, TIPA 232-100 ,the last two of which are way superior to all bar Bayern.
Frankfurt have scored 14 goals and looked good, offensive numbers back that up, although some of their defensive stats give cause for concern....xP 11,BC's 23-10, ITB 60-62, TIPA 165-185 and only the bottom three teams have given up more TIPA than those 185. However, easy to see why they are dangerous, even from the back foot, as the team is full of pace .Two of their players are officially the top ten fastest in the Bundesliga, four are inside the top 16 and SIX in the top 30 which is insane!
This is one of those fixtures we get in world football, where one team just dominates the other and Bayer have won the last 10 h2h meetings as host, but even that doesn't tell the full story, the goal difference is 35-5, they have scored 3+ in 9, with all wins by 2+ goals, clean sheets in five.
However, BL have already conceded 8 goals (!) in home games with Kiel, RBL and Wolfsburg and Frankfurt are better offensively than that trio. 3-2 feels about right!
2 units Bayer Leverkusen to win and both teams to score @ 2.57 asian line.
2 units Eintracht Frankfurt to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.75 asian line.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
TIPA = touches inside penalty area
Good luck!
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