EFL Cup .........two EPL giants go head to head
Dec 22, 2022
EFL Cup: Manchester City- Liverpool
Sky must have been delighted when this fixture popped out of the hat and it is the ideal game to herald next week's return of EPL action.
The two met in back to back games in April last season, the first here at the Etihad and the second in the FA Cup at Wembley and in both I went with Liverpool to score twice at nice odds, notes on both included within the latter.........
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These two met at the Etihad last weekend and I wrote ...........
Goodness knows what the viewing figures will be like for this, but it has caught the public's imagination and few football fans will not be glued to their television screens come 16:30 .
Seven rounds to play after today and City currently hold a one point advantage, so they will be in a very strong position with the win, Liverpool need something you feel to keep the race alive.
In midweek, ahead of their Champions League fixtures I wrote ............
This is usually when I trot out my well used phrase of the upcoming weekend league meeting at the Etihad between City and Liverpool, hanging over tonight's games like the Sword of Damocles ( I was both obsessed and fearful of that tale as a young child). I suppose it is true to a degree, as both teams would like to get the hard work of these two legged ties done and dusted this evening, allowing them to fully focus on what could be an EPL title decider, rather than going into it with one eye on the second leg which is being played next midweek. However, whilst I would never expect either club to admit it, I strongly suspect that once again it is all about winning a first ever Champions League for City, something which has become their Holy Grail for many tears and for six time European champions Liverpool, if forced to choose, it would be just a second league title in 32 years, with that 2019/20 success disrupted , some might say blighted by COVID. The two giants of English football will, of course, be trying to win both tournaments and each would be helped to that end by a resounding win this evening, it is just that I feel the two clubs have different priorities.
I will stick with that thinking and also, Liverpool did get their tie pretty much done and dusted, whereas City have just a one goal advantage to take to Madrid in midweek and have to give more consideration to that. The Reds have scored in 8/9 visits to the Etihad and in 9/10 h2h meetings at Anfield, scoring 2+ goals in 9 of those 17 games. On the road in the EPL they have scored 2+ goals in 15/18 starts, 3+ in nine of those. In the CL they have scored 2+ in 12 of 18 away starts, including all five games played this season. City have conceded four in hehir last two home league starts, including three to Spurs who proved that the Sky Blues can be got at and this is something we have discussed a lot in the last five years or so, that when opponents are brave (and can get the ball !!) they have success versus City. I am tempted by big odds about Liverpool, when do we ever see quotes like that for them (?), but also really like the odds about them scoring twice as "that is what they do on the road" and if they did so in a 2-2 draw for example, I don't think that City would be too unhappy .
It did indeed finish 2-2 and few watchers will have been disappointed with the entertainment produced. The title race is still on, both qualified for the last four of the Champions League on Wednesday and can only now meet in the final and they face off again today in yet another competition. This time it is at the neutral venue of Wembley and once again, it is difficult not to see goals, five of the last six h2h meetings have now produced 4+ goals and the Liverpool defence looked vulnerable in their two games in the last week, giving up 5 goals and City can always cut loose, but similarly, no one looks like keeping the Reds out for too long and they had a FAR less gruelling game in midweek and no travel.
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They won that 3-2 and seven of the last nine h2h meetings have produced 4+ goals and the Reds have scored 2+ in five of those .
When I updated the EPL stats last week I noted ..........
Man City 10.0 / 9.1, 15-14, 75-32, 10.7
Liverpool 14.2 / 11.5 , 23-20, 72-51, 12.3
Four columns, they are , in order, xG, BC's, ITB attempts, average (current) league position of the opponent faced. Good numbers in relation to league placing are highlighted in blue type, poor numbers in red.
There are a few things to give cause for concern in the Manchester City numbers and they have had that huge number of players away at the World Cup too. Their stats are a little skewed by the statistical tonking they got from Brentford at the Etihad ahead of the break, it might only have been 2-1 to the mighty Bees, but they were 6-1 for BC's (it was away to City for goodness sake!) and a net +1.5 xGD and the West London side might easily have scored 4+ goals. The Bees ITB numbers are not great though and they have some issues with injury and other matters which we can discuss another day.
The Liverpool stats are mad and right across the board, creating more than anyone, but conceding chances like a bottom 2-3 side, with over 4.0 xG's , 7 BC's and 20 ITB attempts per game!
City look vulnerable and had 16 players at the WC, Liverpool are both creating and giving up chances for fun.
We should see goals and best value surely to stick with Liverpool to score twice again.
2.25 units Liverpool to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.77 asian line.
Good luck!
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