Coupe de la Ligue: Round 2 betting tip: Niort- Grenoble .................
Aug 27, 2019
Coupe de la Ligue: Round 2
12 months ago I wrote about what we historically expect from these second round contests ...............
Ahead of this series of games last year I wrote ..........."Last eight seasons have seen this round (47 matches total ....just five played one year) produce 19 home wins (40.4%), 11 draws (23.4%) and 17 (36.2%)away victories, with 48.93 % going "over". Make up is almost all Ligue 2 (11 of the 12 teams taking part this evening) and that is the obvious comparison, last two seasons in the second tier have seen 41% home wins, 31% draws and 28% aways , so the same number of homes, but more away wins and fewer draws and that is what we should expect, with teams always rotating and tending to prioritise their league games. "Overs" are about 6-7 % more likely in these cup games over this period, however, those are a little skewed by there being only two in the each of the last two seasons (six games is a small sample) and prior to that, goals were flowing in R2 and you only have to watch a couple of these fixtures to realise that they are always far more likely than for a league fixture and games much more open. So, we can look out for more of an away and goal bias.
There is one thing that might make a difference to these long term numbers and that is, starting last season, prize money has been significantly increased (up 87%) and a team passing this round will receive a minimum 348k € , that might not make a huge difference to Lorient/Lens who have 2 of the 3 biggest budgets in L2, Lens' is bigger than that of nine Ligue 1 teams ! But to Clermont and Orleans who have two of the three smallest , it is a not insignificant sum and something I had not overly considered before."
Last season (2017-18) saw 17/33 games( 51.51%) from the second round onwards go "over" with 7 (21.21%) ending all square after 90 minutes, R2 and R3 saw a total of 6 homes, 5 aways and basically, the numbers held up, fewer draws , more aways and a greater goal bias. All 12 teams in action today are from Ligue 2.
In 2018-19 , 11 of the 12 teams scored and of the three matches we took "over" at good odds, two obliged with 3 and 4 goals and the other ended 1-1 and should have followed suit, with a host of unbelievable chances missed, the woodwork hit and a stonewall penalty waved away.
My three games for today start with...........
Niort- Grenoble
Niort are on an unbeaten run of five games which included a 3-1 cup win over Chateauroux in the previous round.................
These two met in this exact fixture on Friday night with Niort winning 3-0, it is difficult to say how much that was down to the sending off of Chateauroux centre back Sekou Conde around the 30 minute mark, but it clearly wouldn't have helped. However, the fact that Niort did not allow an attempt on goal, before or after the dismissal, whilst creating 11 of their own, missing a further three big chances was noteworthy , especially as I had spoken about some offensive concerns ahead of their opener ......
Niort have scored 9 goals in those 5 starts, but are coming off a 1-1 home draw with Caen where the visitor missed SIX big chances and hit the woodwork twice and as those numbers indicate, they have been riding their luck recently. Grenoble kindly lost 3-1 at Le Havre at the weekend which was the perfect scoreline for us ( see Friday email) , they played better than the scoreline suggests and as I often say, they are suited by playing on the road, but made a 1,500 km round trip for the game four days ago and another 700km to get to Niort and energy levels will be tested. Having said that, they have come with a VERY offensive looking, attack heavy, group.
Pretty warm everywhere today, but most venues will cool down a little by early evening and there are some light winds around.
2 units Niort-Grenoble "over" 2.5 goals 2.43 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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