Championship update.................
Feb 22, 2020
Championship:
No excuses for the photo chosen today, "the future is unwritten", you should "know your rights" and every day is better with a little Joe !
ITB:
Teams are shown in league table order and all have now played 33 rounds.............all numbers correct on 20th February.
WBA +89 (85-31 +54)
Leeds +190 (84-35 +49)
Fulham +10 (47-43 +4)
Brentford +128 (62-37 +25)
*Forest -31 (58-64 -6)
PNE +33 (50-48 +2)
Bristol City -67 (57-65 -8)
Blackburn +3 (53-36 +17)
Cardiff -15 (61-52 +9)
Millwall +17 (49-69 -20)
Swansea -16 (61-59 +2 )
Sheffield Weds +72 (44-49 -5)
Derby -47 (34-50 -16)
Birmingham +19 (52-52 =0 )
*Reading -25 (53-74 -21)
QPR +15 (55-62 -7)
Hull -29 (46-79 -33)
Middlesbrough -29 (48-41 +7)
Charlton -118 (32-59 -27)
Huddersfield -74 (54-43 +11)
Stoke +85 (54-42 +12)
Wigan -60 (47-61 -14)
Luton -114 (36-54 -18)
Barnsley -36 (38-55 -17)
Figures directly next to each team are net ITB numbers for the 33 rounds played to date . Numbers in brackets/parentheses are for chances created-conceded for the last 7 games (* last 8 for these two teams) so Leeds for example have created 84 attempts inside the box, given up 35 for a net +49.
Charlton, Forest and Bristol City have pretty much been posting bottom half of the table numbers all season and that was true even when Athletic were top 6-7 through the first dozen games, they have fallen to their true level , the other two have hung on in there, but I am not having City as a playoff contender and got a good look at Forest recently and was not overly impressed. They are well organised and disciplined, but lack flair and are happy to play on the back foot and look to "spoil", their goalkeeper was booked for time wasting inside 20 minutes at Griffin Park and if that is how you want to play the beautiful game Mr Lamouchi, you are welcome to it ! These tactics have worked for Aitor Karanka ( Boro) and David Wagner (Huddersfield) in recent seasons, but look where both are now and before someone says that they got the Premier league money and parachute payments, both clubs are now also struggling financially !
Despite Sheffield Wednesday's eye catching +72 for a team in 12th, I did issue a warning about them after I went to Hillsborough in early December and noted .............
I saw Wednesday- Brentford on Saturday, late injury and illness meant that the Bees were without two of their starting back four in Pontus Jansson and Henrik Dalsgaard, the latter was replaced by young Danish right back Mads Roerslev Rasmussen who was making his first team debut start. Despite that Brentford dominated the first half , led 1-0 at the break and should have been two or three up at that time, it was the archetypal game of two halves though and Wednesday scored twice inside 3-4 minutes midway through the second, both from the same flank, with Kadeen Harris providing each from the side protected by Roerslev. The first was a gifted handball/penalty in a defining moment of the game.
The Owls were poor for much of the first hour, one dimensional, predictable and slow and the Bees must still be wondering how they lost and I am pondering how Wednesday have put together such good recent stats . I have had a look at their results and prior to Saturday, their eight wins came versus 17th placed Charlton, 18th Reading, 19th Middlesbrough, 20th Luton, 21st Huddersfield, 22nd Wigan, 23rd Stoke, 24th Barnsley and , having seen them close up, they will need a lot to go their way to beat the better teams.
They have gone 3-3-7 subsequently and their last seven game ITB numbers give further cause for concern, they also have some financial issues and face a possible points deduction and that is probably having a negative effect on all at the club too . I always say that the ITB and XP stats are a starting point and we have to use them alongside something we have preferably seen with our own eyes.
After a real dip, last seven numbers for Albion look terrific, not only are they creating for fun, they are giving up so few chances and they look back to early season levels right now, more importantly their self belief seems to have returned.
Fulham are a second half of the season team and look well positioned to launch a big push, BUT they have been posting overall negative ITB numbers since Round 12 and that is a "worry" (not for me of course, I hope it is a big issue !).
Derby are 5-2-2 since the New Year weekend fixtures , but that upturn is not reflected in numbers and they have only really played Stoke of the stronger teams in that sequence and my concern is that they are scoring, but from very few real chances and I wonder how long that can continue.
Edit: Derby and Fulham drew 1-1 at Pride Park last night, County played well going forward but defended terribly, some of the space they left at the back was criminal ! Fulham have good players, look strong on paper, but something is missing and they do not look a "team",
ITB puts top ten as ...........
Leeds +190
Bees +128
Albion +89
Stoke +85
Wednesday +72
PNE +33
Birmingham +19
Millwall +17
QPR +15
Fulham -10
Everyone else apart from Blackburn (+3) are on a negative number and highlights what I have been saying all season, that this is a very weak Championship.
Bottom 4 are...........
Bristol City -67
Huddersfield -74
Luton -114
Charlton -118
XP sees the top 10 as...........
Leeds 81 pts
Brentford 66
WBA 59
Stoke 56
Wednesday 54
Fulham 53
QPR 51
Wigan 49
Swansea 48
PNE 47
Bottom 4 are...............
Derby 27 pts
Bristol City 26
Luton 26
Charlton 22
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
Notes on 12 (TWELVE !) games taking place in the next 24 hours in the newsletter along with the above stats and so much more besides !
Good Luck.
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