Paderborn are nine points from safety, 5 from the relegation playoff place and 13 adrift of Köln who have a game in hand, winning that would take them into the top 10 and within six points of sixth. Stats wise, they, Wolfsburg and Frankfurt look best of non top 5 teams and the latter have other priorities as discussed on Wednesday. Köln were bottom of the table through 14 games, with 10 defeats and just 8 points, they have collected 72.4% of their points from their last 11 starts, with an average of 1.91 points pg through that sequence, which is top 4/5 level. Since the first week in December, Köln have collected 1.11 more points pg than Paderborn and have a +115 ITB seasonal differential and within that +36 since New Year despite playing a game less. The visitors won the reverse fixture 3-0 back in October when we sided with them and they were +5 on target, +3 BC's. +2 woodwork and +11 ITB and the scoreline was not flattering.

 

Paderborns' need is great of course, but they have suffered 16 losses and had a poor defensive record in their 18-19 promotion season. They were in the third tier as recently as 2018 and in 2017 finished 18th in that, only avoiding relegation as TSV 1860 Munich did not get the necessary license to continue playing professionally. Basically, Paderborn's rise has been meteoric and it feels like everything has caught up with them. Prior to this season, they lost star player Philip Klement ( 16 goals, 7 assists) and more importantly Sporting Director Markus Krosche who oversaw a fantastic shoestring recruitment process and his remarkable talent didn't go unnoticed and he now has the same job  with RB Leipzig and his CV is starting to look very good indeed. They have conceded 10 goals in losing their last three home starts and I fancy that trend to continue, away win .

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck.