Atlético arrive in 8th place and will move to within a point of top six with the win. XP suggests they have performed more at lower midtable level but they have been doing battle on several fronts and are also in the semi finals of the Copa do Brasil and final of the Copa Sudamericana, both of which award the winner a Copa Libertadores spot for next season. However, neither is guaranteed and they will surely want to  keep the option alive of earning a place in that elite competition through their league position, as long as possible. That cup form is probably a better indication of their true level and they have found some away form having won 3/4 on the road in all competitions and for once, have more recovery time ( 24hours) than their opponent and will be able to give the league their full attention, at least for today. They have rotated a lot all season, in order to compete in all three competitions, but come with their strongest available group. They do not do many draws, just 5 in 42 competitive starts this season and with Chapecoense surely only interested in all three points themselves, this game should provide a winner.

 

The home side are bottom of the table with just a single win and are 16 points from safety with 13 games remaining, having picked up only 12 from the first 25 starts and although they will not admit it, have probably been planning for an immediate return to Serie B for some time. They have played better than that awful record suggests at times, but they have conceded a league high 43 goals and xGA suggests that should be 6-7 more and expected numbers are almost always better for teams at the bottom, so not a great sign. Offensively they appear to be without Geuvanio who has a goal and assist in the last two games and Anselmo Ramon who has most attempts, most on target and most xG with a 5 goal contribution in a low scoring team. Away win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAM are now out of the Copa Libertadores, losing at the semi final stage on the away goal rule to Palmeiras, which will have been a huge disappointment. However, they are in the last four of the Copa do Brasil and the domestic double is very much on, as they hold an 11 point lead at the top of Serie A. However, Flamengo are hunting them down and the two time defending champions have two games in hand and have still to host Atletico , so there can be no easing off from CAM, not that we have seen any all season and they have lost just once in 27 starts and that in a game they did not need to get a result, having won the first leg comfortably. At home in the league they have won eight straight , conceding just a single goal in the last six and also winning six of those eight by 2+ goals. They beat Santos here 2-0 back in January (last season) earning revenge for a 3-1 defeat in the reverse fixture and might have something similar planned as they also lost 2-0 away to Santos early in this campaign, actually in their last league defeat, 18 games ago.

 

Santos are only just outside the drop zone, but have arguably a bigger game away to Sport, who are two points below them currently, up in Recife in three days time and they cannot afford to give their all this evening, in a game they are unlikely to win and have nothing left for that long trip North. We have spoken often in the past about teams having to pick their battles in Serie A and this feels like one such occasion. They have had 24 hours less rest than CAM and are notoriously poor travellers, winning just 2/22 away league games. Their last two road games were a 3-0 loss at struggling Juventude and a 1-1 derby draw at Sao Paulo but where they "lost" xG 2.10-0.20 , BC's 2-0 and ITB 9-1, a similar performance to either of those will see them lose this comfortably.

 

 

 

 

Good luck !