Brazil: Serie A: Palmeiras- Ponte Preta

Ahead of Palmeiras' last home game, a 2-1 win over Vitoria I wrote ...........

This is a hugely important game for Palmeiras and club and supporters are well aware of that, the match is a sell out and it will be all guns blazing for three points and a big win might well take them top of the table. Beyond the result, it is a performance they need now and the crowd will be urging them forward at every opportunity and if they win, if is likely to be comfortably, which is they usual style and five of their seven home wins have come by two or more goals. Last time I previewed them was ahead of a 1-0 win at Internacional three weeks ago ..............

I opposed Palmeiras for their home game with Santos on Tuesday and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email. They were without three very key players there in Thiago Santos, Róger Guedes and Gabriel Jesus (see below), to be honest, they played pretty well and took the lead and the game to their opponent , but Santos got on top and should have won in the end, but there was a lot to like about Palmeiras and they are relentless in going forward. They get the trio back today which not only gives them the chance to really freshen up the starting eleven, but the returnees will have benefitted from the break, after an intense start to the campaign. They do have two new suspended players today in Alecsandro and Moises, the former is a veteran fringe forward, midfielder Moises will be missed, but as a group, the visitors are significantly stronger today.

Since that win, they have taken just one point from three starts (two on the road) , including their first home defeat of the season to Atletico MG, they started well enough there, restricted the visitors to long range shots and really should have been a goal or two up before they conceded, however, they seemed to run out of ideas once they fell behind. They drew 1-1 at Chapecoense in midweek and that was a similar story, perhaps even more so, they were well on top early and totally dominating, before falling behind against the run of play, but this time they kept up the pressure and got their reward with a penalty late in the game, by which time they really should have already been ahead. Anyway, plenty of promise and if they play with the same intensity, they should be able to see off Vitoria in some style. The visitors were 100% committed to their home game with Coritiba in midweek, which they considered "must win" and they will be pleased with a 3-1 victory, this week was all about that and anything gained today, merely a bonus. They have lost on their last five visits to Palmeiras and I expect a sixth defeat, despite the hosts still being without top scorer Gabriel Jesus (he will be gone permanently sometime soon) and goalkeeper Fernando Prass, but number 2 Vagner has now started three games and should be starting to feel comfortable and there can really be no excuses.

Vitoria apparently trained almost exclusively on defensive formations and "without the ball" ysterday and I doubt they are coming with a gung ho approach and Palm should see a lot of the ball early and are overdue for one of those early opportunities (maybe a couple) falling in their favour. I will take 1.75 units Palmeiras -1.25 ball 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket, but if you wanted to be more adventurous, Palmeiras have led 2-0 at the break in their three home games against bottom half of the table teams and a repeat of that @ circa 7.50 or for Palm to score over 1.5 goals in the first half ( 3.75) has some appeal.

The following morning I laid the whole sorry process out bare and wrote ........Palmeiras led 2-0, missed a penalty which would have given the win and that 2-0 half time lead and an absolute sitter immediately before conceding a comedic own goal ( no one was laughing) late on !  There was an awful lot on the money there and to end in a half stake loser, made for a terribly frustrating game to watch. I doubt Palmeiras were as troubled as I was and they built on those three points with a road win and cleansheet (of course !) at Atletico Paranaense and at least they had the good grace not to score their goal via the penalty spot ! That has enabled them to reassert their three point lead at the top of the table and with road trips to Fluminense and Gremio (both strong home teams) on the near horizon and the next game here not for 17 days, they will be incredibly motivated to win again today and retain the advantage.
 

1.5 units Palmeiras -1 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.

Good Luck.