As we all know by now, so much sport is played between the ears and in no arena is that highlighted more than on the back nine holes in golf, when players are under intense pressure and there is so much time between shots to think about things. Players have a caddy and a good one can help a lot , but it is basically an individual sport played out over 16 hours plus , often in a variety of conditions and green speeds and comes to a two hour conclusion in R4 when the golfers real personality comes to the fore and some revel in the spotlight and (most) others shirk from it. The last two weeks we have discussed golfers on Sunday who are "much happier" from off the pace and Cameron Smith and Tony Finau took advantage of slips up from the 54 hole leaders to win and could just play their natural game. We had seen from Smith on the Saturday that he didn't revel in the role of leading in a major and Finau took control of the tournament with a very healthy lead coming off the 16th hole yesterday , then hit two "dodgy" approach shots at the final two holes which could have been more costly had he realised sooner he was going to win! These two players kind of fit into both camps, also being unhappy out in front for too long, which is not as unusual as you might think. There is money to be made by knowing what situations players thrive in and under which they are more likely to play their best golf .
We almost always only preview the PGA event on a Sunday, prior to the start of R4 and notes from the last two week's are reproduced below , Smith and Finau both won, but it is more about the thinking behind the analysis than the result which is important
Good luck!
PGA : 3m Open
There was a nice 27 + point profit on the golf last Sunday with our two bets and I can start today by saying that is NOT going to be repeated, but I have a decent bet at nice odds and see overnight four stroke leader, Scott Piercy, as vulnerable.
He is a four time PGA Tour winner, but the last victory was in a "pairs" event a while back and he has not won on his own since 2015 and at 43 yo he is not improving. I don't think he would be a popular winner with many, as he lost many (all ?) of his sponsorships following a homophotic social media post two years ago and he has not really been competitive since. There are a couple of potential winners in the chasing pack like Grillo, Finau and Im, although the latter might be just a little too far back.
Tony Finau is, like Cameron Smith (Open winner), someone far happier coming from off the pace and he could be perfectly situated tied 3rd overnight and 5 strokes off the pace, but only one adrift of anyone apart from Piercy and it is always easier (my obvious comment of the day) to chase down one, as opposed to multiple players, holding a healthy lead.
Finau is super talented, he has 15 top 3 finishes, but only two of those are wins and he should perhaps have six to his name, but any "winning issues" will be far less apparent coming from so far back and for all those problems in crossing the winning line, he is actually a solid R4 golfer. Finau is ranked #3 on Tour this season for final round scoring, 2.6 strokes per round better than the PGA average and 3.14 superior to Piercy (#148).
He has upped his game in recents months and since May has posted a series of good finishes to record three top 4's they include two runner up spots when he shot 63 and 64 on Sunday from off the pace. He went low over the weekend at St Andrews last time out to show his (continued) well being and came into this event as one of the favourites.
I would be a bit amazed were he not to finish top two and really nice value each way in my opinion for the one elite golfer at the top of the leaderboard who "likes" to finish second, but has a great opportunity to record his second Tour win inside 11 months, the last came when he beat now Cameron Smith in a playoff and watching the Aussie win last weekend must have given the US golfer a confidence boost.
1.75 units each way (3.5 staked) Tony Finau 6.0 general quote 1/3 odds 1-2 places.
Open Championship:
This has very much the feeling of a match, with Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland four strokes clear of the field and whilst things can change very quickly on a golf course on Sunday, I (kind of) expect one of them to get the job done . But I have doubts about both!
Rory has not won a major since 2014 and has posted 8 top 5 finishes subsequently and often seems to want to win these big events a little too much and puts enormous pressure on himself. Hovland is only 24 yo, this is his 12th major and his best finish is 12th and would not be human if he did not have a sleepless night. The Norwegian was saved by his putter multiple times over recent days and that papered over some real cracks in his short game and they could unravel in the white hot atmosphere that will be generated today.
Cameron Smith is a fine player and FAR more comfortable from off the pace, he was T6 going into the final round when he won the biggest event of his career the Players championship earlier this year and he will not be under anything like the pressure he was yesterday in the final group and nothing worked for him Saturday. He will take comfort from the fact he is still in contention despite his putter running cold and he can expect it to warm up a little today. Smith thrives on courses (like the Masters) where there are risk/reward holes, space off the tee and where he can then allow his magical short game, possibly the best in golf, to get to work. Players who do well at Augusta (Smith has finished 2-10-3 on his last three visits) tend to also do well at St Andrews and when he does miss off the tee, as he is prone, it is on the left and most of the trouble here is on the other side of the course. It felt like a good course for him coming into the event and not much has happened to make anyone change that opinion.
1.5 units each way ( 3 units staked ) Cameron Smith 13.0 @ 1/3 odds 1-2 general quote.
