Australian Open Tennis:

Jan 16, 2019
football betting tips -
 
 
I have previewed four tennis matches from the Australian Open in the last 24 hours, all won at odds of 2.0, 2.04, 2.33 and 3.18, you can read all four below to get an idea of how we look at tennis and there are also "active" notes on a 5th match taking place tonight/tomorrow .
 
 
Naomi Osaka won 6-4, 6-2.
 
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova won 3-6, 6-3, 6-3.
 
Belinda Bencic won 7-5, 4-6, 6-2.
 
Amanda Anisimova won 6-0, 6-2.
 
 
Australian Open Tennis: WTA:
 
 
Naomi Osaka- Magda Linette
 
 
Notes on clubgowi favourite Naomi Osaka on the website. I have spoken often in the past about her love of night games and the focus being on her in those, that might seem obvious now she has won Indian Wells and the US Open, but less so before and given that she is almost painfully shy off court. The win in New York made her the biggest asian sportswomen or man and placed huge media commitments on her young shoulders and she remains a very youthful, almost unworldly, now 21yo. So, a final in Tokyo was huge considering and she proved her 2019 well being with a run to the Brisbane last  4, which was perfect for build up purposes. She doesn;t need much, was not in great form ahead of the US Open and actually lost to today's opponent Magda Linette in Washington two weeks beforehand, Osaka was a no show that day, the Polish 26 yo has shown us little since , or before for that matter, played way above herself and we can add some revenge and knowledge learned from that meeting into the mix. Linette is 3-12 in first round of slams  and I am not sure she will be suited by the long wait to play today and high pressure situation under lights, which will all be new to her.
 
 
1.75 units Naomi Osaka -5.5 games 2.0 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
 
 
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova-Kiki Bertens
 
 
Kiki Bertens had a glorious and unexpected second half of 2018, I say unexpected as she had performed poorly on hard courts prior to that, doubly so against "ranked " players and in mid summer I wrote ........
 
I suspect that given the choice Kiki Bertens would sooner play Roland Garros four times and skip the other three slams and that probably goes double for Wimbledon !
 
She has played 17 fast court slams and made it through to R3 only twice, losing at that stage both times, not a great record for a #20 ranked player.
 
Bertens is 0-18 v top 20 ranked opponents in WTA events on hard courts ! She is 2-11 v top 50 in Premier events like this.
 
Bertens made the last 8 at Wimbledon, won (!) Cincinnatti and Seoul, played well at the WTA Finals and started this year with a run to the last 4 in Sydney ! Completely turning all those stats around. However, she did lose earlyish (R3) at the US Open and her record there and here, the two hardcourt slams is 8-13 including her win on Sunday, with two R3 appearances (never going beyond) in those 13 attempts.So, I do see her as vulnerable to anyone decent at good odds. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is ranked 44 , but is better than that and was #18 at this time 12 months ago, her's is really a story of unfulfilled potential and many false dawns, although to consider a top 20 and long career on Tour a failure is wrong. But here in Melboune in 2017 I wrote ..........
 
At Sydney I spoke about Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and how she has been on my radar for so very long ..............

I just wonder if this could finally be Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova's year. It has been a long time coming, but she has been increasingly knocking on the door and was close to the big breakthrough in 2015 and was unlucky with the draw at some slams last year, taking Serena close in the last 8 at Wimbledon, running into her nemesis Svetlana Kuznetsova at Roland Garros for example and if it will ever happen for her, consistent top 10-20, you do feel it has to be this year. I championed her early in her career, when I was certain she would be a multi major title winner, I spoke about this ahead of that loss to Kuznetsova, who is one of my favourite all time sportspeople for almost entirely financial reasons (!), in Paris ............

She leads the h2h with Pavlyuchenkova 4-1 , but the Russian pair have never met on clay and the younger player has huge (untapped) potential, she made four junior slam finals inside 13 months as a youngster, winning three, but losing here at RG to a much older Agnieszka Radwanska.
 
I was convinced that  Pavlyuchenkova was the real deal and six years ago you would not have been able to convince me that in 2016 she would still be without a grand slam title, let alone never have been ranked inside the top 10 ( she did make #13 in 2011) ,She is still only 24 yo and I guess could still make the big breakthrough, but she lacks consistency and you are never quite sure what you will get with her. The last two h2h meetings with Sveta says everything, she won 0 & 1 in Wuhan late in 2015, with Kuznetsova only winning 22 points, four weeks later in Moscow she lost 2 & 1 with Sveta being similarly dominant, but perhaps that says more about her opponent.
 

She lost that easily, which was good for us, but met and beat Kuzzy in straight sets yesterday and had previously seen off home favourite Samantha Stosur 3 &1 with Pavly all over the Aussies serve. They are good wins back to back and beating Kuznetsova, who she has long looked up to and who was defending champion here, will have given the Russian huge confidence for today and the rest of these championships, which are there for the winning. She spoke after her win yesterday on the tournament website :“I’m really happy, especially because she’s not only defending champion but my fellow (countrywoman) and she’s top 10 and she’s had a really incredible year last year.”So I knew it would be a really tough match and I was just trying to do my own thing and play good tennis.”

Last week Pavlyuchenkova began her season with an opening-round loss in Auckland and asked to explain the turnaround in her fortunes this week, the Russian said the difficulties in finding form in the first match of the year ,plus cold, windy conditions meant we shouldn’t read too deeply into her result there.

She is over the moon with her last 8 spot here in Melbourne where she was a two time Junior winner and clearly feels very comfortable in these surroundings.

 
So she is a two time Junior AO winner and has made the last 8 of all four slams and not many ranked outside the top 20 can claim that and has also done the same feat in doubles and the big stage certainly doesn't scare her and she has 55 slam wins compared to 25 for Bertens (44% coming at RG) and the two are the same age. They met in Wuhan late last year on this surface with Pavlyuchenkova winning 4&2 and having a big read on the Dutchwoman's second serve. Bertens is and should be favourite, but not at circa 71% and so..........
 
 
1.75 units Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Kiki Bertens 3.18 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
 
 
Belinda Bencic -Yulia Putintseva
 
 
I discussed Belinda Bencic's first round match with Katerina Siniakova on Sunday in detail, closing the notes with ..........
 
Bencic made the last 8 at both Washington and New Haven (5 wins, had to qualify) after Wimbledon, then the final in Luxembourg, where she took Julia Goerges close and then played and won a low key event late in the year, to keep going as long as possible. That indicates two things to me, that she was surely finally over any real fitness issues and secondly she still had a hunger and love for the game. She made the semis at Hobart last week in her first start of 2019, she reached the 4th round here in 2016, R2 last year and has some points to defend, a couple of wins this week will go a long way to getting her back inside the top 30 and I feel we will be discussing her a LOT this year.
 
BB is on a run of 19-3 versus players ranked outside the top 20 on hardcourts, Siniakova has a losing record on the surface against those ranked top 100, is under 32% (win rate) v those inside the 50 and is 1-4 in this event versus top 100. The pair have only met once, a long time ago, when both were very young, but it was on Siniakova's preferred clay and Bencis only dropped 3 games and neither will have forgotten that.
 
You can read the rest by looking back to the Sunday newsletter, Bencic won 6-4,2-6, 6-3 in one of the toughest first round matches. Now she meets diminutive Yulia Putintseva who is listed at 1.63m (maybe if she was wearing high heels) and is "feisty" if we are being polite and could start an argument in an empty room, she met another of the same ilk in R1 , beating an ,out of sorts currently, Barbora Strycova. Putintseva is not ranked as highly as Siniakova and Bencic has a good record versus shorter players, 72% win rate against those 1.68m or less, YP has a (just) 35% win rate v top 50 opponents on hard courts and is 1-8 in R2 of fast court (non Roland Garros) slams , with her only win over a wild card opponent ranked circa 160.
 
 
2 units Belinda Bencic -2.5 games 2.04 Pinnacle/Sportmarket, best alternative 2-0 sets @ circa 2.60.
 
 
Lesia Tsurenko-Amanda Anisimova
 
 
Lesia Tsurenko is hard working and has a tennis brain and makes the most of her abilities, she is almost always ranked between 30-60 , not quite good enough to break into the top 25 on a regular basis, held back by some physical limitations and maybe self belief on occasions. It seems harsh to call her a journeywoman player, but that is what she is, albeit a good one. She turns 30 in May and has played Melbourne 9 times. but made it beyond this stage just once, in 2013 and has lost 7/8 here versus players ranked top 50. The more eagle eyed amongst you will note that Amanda Anisimova (pictured) is "only " ranked 87, but she is 17 years old, not 18 until August and has the tennis world at her feet and should not be considered anything less than top 50 and she is FAR better than that.
 
My notes on her from last summer are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off and I have highlighted one or two key lines in heavy blue type this morning. Not many events for her after that , she played the first round at the US Open, lost a close one, then went to Hiroshima, won 7 matches, the last three wins came versus top 100 experienced pros and in two sets (including #40 talented Shuai Zhang), she has been in Australasia for a couple of week and won matches in Auckland and beat Monica Niculescu in two sets here in R1. Baring injuries, this is the first of many, many R2 in slams for her and there is absolutely no limit to what she can achieve, I guess Tsurenko might be favourite today, but a coin flip would feel more correct and we have to take a chance on AA at these odds, if they played this in 12 months I suspect Anisimova might be 1.40 at best and in two years sub 1.20, what I am trying to say is that odds like this will not be on offer too often,if ever in the future, so we should try and take them while we can.
 
 
2 units Amanda Anisimova to beat Lesia Tsurenko 2.33 Pinnacle/Sportmarket.
 
 
Alize Cornet- Venus Williams.
 
 
I looked at Venus' opening match where my notes included.............
 
We have to almost always take Venus' fitness on trust sometimes too, but this is a long way to come with her multi millions in the bank if you don't think you are capable of doing yourself justice, in 18 visits to Melbourne she has made the QF or better 9 times, there are four first round defeats too, including last year, but she has gone deep the following year after the last three of those and she is 70-10 in career R1 of slams. Buzarnescu is 30yo but has only played four slams, losing in the first round of two and she is also a leftie, against whom Venus matches up well. Williams the elder is 29-4 on hard courts versus left handed players ranked 21+, with 26 of those 29 wins coming in two sets. Against those ranked 51+ which is nearer to MB's current level, Venus is 17-1 the one loss coming to Petra Kvitova who is as far away from a player ranked outside the top 50 as you can get !
 
Williams trailed by a set and a break at 5-3 in the second when Buzarnescu served for the match. Williams broke to love, was better in the second set tiebreak, then surged ahead quickly in the final set with an early break and looked good in that decider, much better the longer the match went and we can expect Venus to have come on considerably with that under her belt.She has to clean up her act in terms of unforced errors, but should do so with the increased match fitness and sharpness. Venus is 62-8 in the second round of slams, including 13-1 here in Melbourne. Her opponent Alize Cornet is 17-17 in R2 of slams and that is pretty much inline with her usual 30-50 ranking. Cornet is 1-6 against Venus, did win the last meeting , but all were some time ago, five of William's six wins were in two sets including two in slams. In grand slam events Cornet is 15-34 versus top 50 (6-18 on hardcourts), 3-19 against top 20 (1-13 on hardcourts) and in the biggest events on these fast courts looks a level below the top players. She is someone Venus knows well and who she will feel comfortable against and I think she can win this in two with a faster start than in R1 and she certainly will not want another marathon. Williams split with long time (11 year) coach David Witt last month, not sure she would have done that if there were retirement plans, so it could be a "positive" that she wants a change and she has looked very happy in interview here in Melbourne. She started last year ranked #5, her highest since 2011, a disappointing 2018 has seen that fall to 36, but with no ranking points here to defend, she has already improved that and a deepish run would fast track her back to the top 20 and I am sure that would be the immediate aim. Venus in 2.
 
 
1.5 units Venus Williams 2-0 sets 2.60 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
 
 
Good Luck.
 
 
Amanda Anisimova- Timea Babos (written August 14th)
 
 
Not sure I have been as impressed by a 16 yo player as much as Amanda Anisimova for many, many years. Not just her talent, but the way her career is being planned with no real rush and a knowledge that she is heading for the top regardless and that is both refreshing and highlights what a special talent she might be. Back in March at the Miami Open I wrote ......
 
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They messed with the Miami Open schedule and we have some first round matches today, not really an issue as there is not a lot to discuss, but I do have to say a few words about the match up between Amanda Anisimova and Qiang Wang.

I have no real issues with Wang, she is a decent player, ranked at around the 50 mark which is about her level ,but she struggles against the better and taller players on Tour who are not Kristina Mladenovic ! She seems to have the Frencwoman's number leading the h2h 3-0, but is otherwise 3-18 against top 20 players and 0-5 against those as tall as Anisimova . The flaw in these numbers is that her 16 yo opponent is currently ranked #130 but that is only because she has played just five minutes on Tour and is no reflection on her ability(already) or limitless potential.

Last week I wrote ...........
 

I was very impressed with 16 yo Amanda Anisimova in her win over Petra Kvitova on Sunday, Kvitova was a bit of a no show and might need a rest now after her two tournament wins, but it was still a major scalp and it just looked like once the contest started that Anisimova expected to win . No nerves, no over celebration, she is listed at 1.78m but is definitely taller and is only going to get bigger/stronger, must be nice to have the world at your feet in your mid teens ! Both her parents are Russian, but they moved to the US before Amanda was born, she is the current US Open Junior champion and also made the final in Roland Garros, which is eyecatching for a youngster bought up on US hardcourts. today she meets another Czech and one of a similar height to Kvitova in Karolina Pliskova who was briefly at #1 last summer, but has since fallen to 5 and is another player you kind of feel was not really happy, like Angelique Kerber with the crown. The courts here suit Pliskova well, she is 14-4 at Indian Wells in the last four years, only losing to the best of the best ( Halep, Kuznetsova. Azarenka and Li Na). It feels like this would be too much for Anisimova, she had not won a WTA match until last week and has done enough, but I couldn't oppose her and I suspect in the near future we will look at odds like 3.15 to beat anyone and think , wow !
 
From the NY Times:

Not Anisimova and her already sizable entourage, which includes her father and head coach, Konstantin Anisimov; her mother, Olga; her traveling coach, Max Fomine; her longtime coaching consultant, Nick Saviano; and her longtime agent, Gary Swain; as well as Max Eisenbud, the hard-driving IMG vice president who represents, among others, Maria Sharapova and Madison Keys.

“We’ve got a very long view,” Konstantin Anisimov said. “We are very happy she is doing way better than we expected, to be honest with you, but at the same time we are staying very calm and understanding that she is young. She is still growing, and she is definitely not ready to play a full schedule and at age 16. She is not allowed to play a full schedule. So we are trying to do more quality than quantity.”

But this is the comment which really got me, veteran José Higueras who has coached Chang, Courier, Bruguera, Moya , Sampras and Federer (!) and knows a good player when he sees one and who is not exactly know for hyperbole said her two-handed backhand was "already one of the best in the professional game " !

Q. There is a lot of talk about your backhand out there, that impressive shot. Can you just talk about that shot in your game, the importance of that?

AMANDA ANISIMOVA: Yeah, I really like my backhand. A lot of people tell me I set it up really well. I just really feel when I’m on court I don’t really have bad days with it. I don’t really have a favorite shot. I think all of my shots are equally pretty good. My backhand is really good, too. I don’t really prefer it over any other shot.
 

Pliskova has a very good record against players ranked outsde the top 100 and top 50 very good, but to think of Anisimova as being of that level just feels wrong even if she was #149 last week, she will be top 20 as soon as her age/schedule allows.
 
Pliskova was forced to come back from 1-5 down in the opening set against Irina-Camelia Begu in R1 and had to work extremely hard against Zhang Shuai, eventually prevailing 7-5 5-7 6-3. Pliskova had won all six of their previous meetings and she clearly exactly in the groove right now  and allowed Zhang a huge number of break points (18) and said afterwards that she lacked a competitive edge :
I think my energy dropped a little bit, and at that point when my energy dropped hers went up,” Pliskova said. “She really went for it and was aggressive, going for the shots and even some lucky ones.
“I tried to put my energy up in the beginning of the third set, and she helped me with a few mistakes. Thanks god I served it out. In the third set I think my serve helped me quite a lot.”
I don't know what to do, my head says that it is a step too far and it would even be better for AA and her long term progress to lose this, but my heart says it is has been a long time since I have been so excited by what a teen has shown on the court.

I wrote after the contest .......... She (Osaka) now meets Karolina Pliskova who beat the super impressive Amanda Anisimova in two sets yesterday, but the second went to a breaker and I saw nothing to put me off the 16yo wunderkind !

Anisimova got a wild card for this event and is at "home" with Miami being only 25km from Aventura where she lives. Limited by age in what events she can play, I suspect she will be motivated today to make the most of another opportunity and the court here will not suit Wang as well as Indian Wells and the Chinese player lost to another teenager we discussed a lot last week in Sofya Zhuk recently (1&2 in Dubai) which should offer Anisimova further encouragement. This is very early in Anisimova's career, but she is even money today and will probably be 1.30 the next time the two meet, so we have to try something .

 
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She won that in three sets and was next meant to face Garbine Muguruza which would have been very interesting, but had to withdraw. We have not seen her subsequently until San Jose, where she came through qualfying and then beat Qiang Wang this time in two sets, so her level must be similar/improved and is only going one way and with a bullet once she can play regularly. She lost in SJ to top 20 Mihaela Buzarnescu in three sets, the first was close and AA took the second 6-2 and she was not far away from the "upset".
 
I opposed opponent Timea Babos in Montreal last week ............
 
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If Goerges is up for this she should win and quickly.
 
I spoke about Babos' issues v stronger players at the Miami Open earlier this year .............
 
Jelena Ostapenko served us very well at Roland Garros last year and she is great fun to watch on any surface, she always goes for her shots and can be unplayable when things click, but her second serve needs a lot of work. But maybe we can let that slide today as we get odds against and I have her as favourite to beat Timea Babos who is a bit of a "flat track bully" in that she is 24-26 in the last 12 months, 14-4 v opponents ranked 101 +, but 10-22 v those inside the 100 (68-122 career) and 3-14 against top 50 (27-79 career).With lifetime records backing up those numbers.  In career Premier tournaments like this, she is 0-11 against top 10 players winning just four sets. Babos did beat Mona Barthel 7-6 6-3 in Round 1, but the German was wasteful, winning just 2 of 11 break points.
 
Ostapenko is 81-49 on hardcourts versus non top 20 players .
 
Babos is a world class doubles player (top 5), but whilst she has been as low as 25 in singles, she has to play above herself to stay around 45-50 and Ostapenko is a couple of levels above that. I also expect the performances of Osaka and Kasatkina, who are her age group, at Indian Wells to inspire/motivate and she will surely want to find some real form before the clay season starts and the build up to Roland Garros in many ways begins today.
 
Ostapenko won that in two, Babos actually made the final in her next tournament Monterrey but lost there to the only top 50 player she faced that week. She is 3-9 subsequently, with her  wins coming over players ranked 57-256-75, her losses included one to Goerges in Madrid ( 6-2 6-4) and 0&1 to Sakkari last week. She is 1-19 versus top 10 in WTA events. 8-39 v top 20 and 26-87 against those ranked inside the top 50.
 
Goerges in now up to #10, is 24-8 on hardcourts v those ranked 21+ in the last 12 months, 18-4 since Moscow last year, with two losses coming to Petra Kvitova who's non 20 ranking was a very temporary blip and, 10 of her last 11 wins within that category have come in two sets.
 
Goerges skipped Washington where she made the final last year (opted to play elsewhere the week before), but she has been in Montreal practicing for a week and perhaps it is just that now she is top 10, she wants to focus more on the bigger events and she has no points to defend here.
 
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Babos lost but in three, Goerges did not look herself there, especially early and retired from this tournament yesterday and I wonder what sort of shape she is in. Babos has all the shots and a big game, but struggles to put all of it, or even 2-3 elements together at the same time, there is a player in there somewhere, but we rarely see it outside of doubles, where she is the current #1 ranked player. This will be a good test for Anisimova , but we have to get involved some way.
 
 
1.5 units Amanda Anisimova to win 2-0 sets 2.55 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.

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