95-1 + winner !
Apr 20, 2021
If you scroll down a couple of posts you will see some notes on Dustin Johnson and why I felt he was playing a fairly low key event last weekend on the PGA Tour, one whch doesn't really suit his game. The full notes sent to subscribers pre tournament at below.
Webb Simpson finished T9th and Stewart Cink actually won the event by four strokes ! He was 150-1 + to win, but we were happy with the 95-1 for top US player.
Despite his slow start I also highlighted Simpson as having a good chance and being priced too big in Top 20 (3.0) and Top 10 (5.50) markets on Friday, so all round, a pretty good event for us !
We have the RBC Heritage starting tomorrow on the PGA Tour and we will definitely be covering this on Sunday, possibly Saturday. It is an event I/we have done well at in the past and it is fun, not just because we have found the winner nine times, but as it is so very different to the Masters which it almost always follows.
The Harbour Town course is short,flat, narrow and a Par 71, Augusta is wide (although,not as wide as it used to be), hilly and a Par 72 where scoring on the Par 5's is key, here in South Carolina , at Hilton Head Island you require a very different skill set and the layout is designed NOT to favour long hitters.
Dustin Johnson is playing this relatively low key event , why ? It certainly doesn't suit him !
DJ was born in Columbia which is about a two hour drive away from the course and that makes him a native of South Carolina and he also went to college in the state (which could all explain it), but the course hardly suits his game and he has planned all year to peak for Augusta and not a week later. Johnson has played here five times, he missed the cut the first two occasions and did not put the event on his schedule for the next nine years, he has played the last three finishing outside the top 15 each time and this at a time when he has pretty much been the best golfer on the planet.
I can probably tell you why, in February 2018 DJ signed a massive sponsorship deal with RBC (this is the RBC Heritage remember) and he has played here in 2018/2019/2020 , call me a cynic if you wish, but there is only one reason he is playing an event that doesn't suit, at a very inconvenient time of year and where he did not play for 9 years and that is because his main sponsor wants him to !
DJ's game is way off at present, even on courses which play to his strengths, so hard to see it all suddenly coming together for him.
He is Dustin Johnson and could suddenly come good here I suppose, but if he felt that was truly likely, why sit out from 2009 to 2018 ?
Webb Simpson is defending champion he has 7 top 16 finishes here in 10 starts, including a win and runner up (lost in a playoff) and he has placed 11-5-16-1 over the last four years, he is a real horses for courses type golfer (might have won two instead of one Phoenix Opens) and showed his well being with a T12th at the Masters. He seems sure to go well and it makes no sense why DJ is favoured before him.
I would like to find a way to oppose DJ but it is tough to do so without taking low odds and that is not really my thing. I do think that there is decent value in .......
1.5 units each way Webb Simpson top US player 9.0 1/5 odds 1-5 places.
I also think we should discuss Stewart Cink, he is 47 years old, but a two time winner here albeit in the distant past, he has made no secret of his love for Hilton Head remaining and that before his star suddenly started shining bright once more, in the twilight of his main Tour career. He has already won this year, his first PGA title in more than ten years ! He also has a 4th place finish and was 19th at the Honda and 12th at the Masters in his last two starts. Cink has come to life with his son caddying for him, the pair seem VERY close and appeared to be having a blast at Augusta , just enjoying themselves and work is always easier when it is fun ! He could be tired, but that was his third best Masters finish ever and best since 2008. He is 90-1 + in that same top US market and 5-1 to finish inside the top 20, something he has done in his last two starts, but this time he is playing in an event which suits him better , in a weaker field and where we have a "suspect" favourite. Cink lives in Duluth in the neighbouring state , just 4 hours away and feels very comfortable in these surroundings.
0.5 units each way Stewart Cink top US player 91.0 + 1/5 odds 1-5 places.
1 unit Stewart Cink to finish top 20 @ 6.0 general quote.
I have picked the US market as there are a few "overseas" players I feel could/should go well, but no real reason why you couldn't take the bigger odds in the standard outright market if that is all that is available to you .
Good luck !
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