2017 US Masters Golf:

 

Second only to any Brentford away game I am lucky enough to get to, the US Masters is just about my single favourite sporting event of the year.

It is the only major played at the same course every year, Augusta Natonal is at least as famous as the players who have tasted victory here and the holes are as familiar to televison viewers as any in world golf. It is a real horses for courses venue and whilst it takes a while to learn, once a golfer has played well here once, he tends to do so again. However, there is a lot of pressure and demands on the defending champion and in the last 50 years, only two players have won back to back titles, Tiger Woods in 2002 and he was not playing the same game as anyone else at that time and Nick Faldo in 1990. Jordan Spieth was the latest to try to defend and went mighty close, but it is a very tall order for anyone. Short priced golfers who are under a hugely increased spotlight here, also do not win that often, at least in recent years and 8 of the last 10 winners have started at 20-1 +, that alone is enough to put me off Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy . Jason Day is now out to 20-1 and could go well, but for both him and Rory the Masters has become something of an obsession, sometimes you can want something too much and I do not think that is healthy or conducive to getting the job done !
 

We have a limited field of 94 players, 10 of whom have lifetime exemption as previous winners, but would not nowadays be strong enough to play four rounds at this level, or probably even two in some cases and also a number of amateurs. There are 19 debutants who traditionally struggle and most spend the first couple of appearances at Augusta just getting used to surroundings almost from another era, that they have grown up watching. So the list of potential winners is far shorter than for any other major and most golf events.

 

The weather has been causing havoc in build up and has put newcomers at a further disadvantage with practice difficult and heavy rain and a wet course should give long hitters a very big advantage over the first couple of days and we might not see the greens really speed up until the weekend.
 

In terms of an identikit winner, we are looking for someone under 40 (last 10 winners), who is ranked top 30, has a top 10 at Augusta to his name and has played here 3+ times, hits it a long way, can can advantage of the Par 5's which are real scoring opportunities and who has already finished top 3 in a tournament this season, priced somewhere north of 20-1 !
 

My short list is Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey and Louis Oosthuizen , they all make the full criteria and I am going to side with each in some way.

 

I am going with Rose and Matsuyama, who have both long been clubgowi favourites, in the outright market and we can start with the British golfer.
 

His record at August stands up to the closest scrutiny and in 11 visits he has never finished worse than 39th and that was on his debut as a 22 yo and includes a 2nd, 5th, 8th and 10th place finish in the last 8 attempts. He already has three top four finishes this season and arrives as Olympic champion and his game is 100% about the biggest tournaments and pretty much since teeing off at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January, he has been thinking of the first tee tomorrow. He is my number one pick.
 

2 units each way Justin Rose 26.0 general quote 1/4 odds five places ( more places offered with some companies).
 

 

Next up Hideki Matsuyama.

 

He is a golfer who I have long suggested was destined for greatness and early this year at the Tournament of Champions I wrote .............
 

Few people doubt his ability now and since those notes he has won his second Phoenix Open title and that is a sure sign he is primed for Augusta, he was runner up there in 2015 and finished 5th here , last year he won in Phoenix and was 7th at the Masters. His form in build up has gone very slightly off the boil (25th-45th in his last two stroke play events), but for me, that has only served to ease the pressure, imagine if he had won one of those two and arrived here looking for his fifth win and 7th top 2 finish of the season in US tour events, that would have been too much for a youngster who only turned 25 a few weeks ago and who is under no less scrutiny in Asia than DJ, Spieth, Day and Mcilroy are in the West. For me, that build up is perfect and ensures we get great odds. Last year we backed him in the "top rest of the world "market at big odds , but that ship has now sailed and we can only consider him in the outright market and he almost has to go close. He is ranked #1 for birdies or better on Par 5 holes this year, was 2nd in that category in 2016 and is playing at another level this season.

 

 

 

On to Paul Casey and I have already spoken of him as likely to win again this year and his great and hugely consistent form over the last nine months, since last year's final major ....................

I did look at the Farmers Insurance Open PGA event in some detail and do not wish to get overly involved, but I do feel that Paul Casey might get his first and only second PGA Tour win since 2009 this season and that he is worth a look today, he has finished runner up six times since and likes to find someone to beat him, but that only means the win, when it comes, is probably more likely to be from off the pace , which he is today and also means we get big odds.

Casey is T13, so has 12 players ahead of him, but is only three strokes off the lead.

He ended 2016 on fire and from the PGA Championship (final major of the year) onwards, went 10-17-31-2-2-4 (3-21-12) the last three were officially 2017 events. His last four starts of the 2016 season were playoff events, so incredibly impressive, he should have won the Deutsche Bank , which he blew, but he shot a fine final round 64 at the Tour Championship (finale).

He took two starts this year to blew the cobwebs away and looks primed for another big finish and I just get the feeling he will be involved late tonight.

BTW Casey is a 13 time winner on the European Tour and interestingly three of those have come inside the first six weeks of a new year and ten pro wins by a single stroke or in a play off, so I don't think his nerves are quite as bad as some others do.
 

After a mini blip in form, there have been recent signs that he is on his way back and he is another golfer who would really only have had eyes only for Augusta in recent weeks. He hit the ground running here in his first ever appearance which is very rare, finishing T6th on his debut in 2004 and in 10 appearances he has four top ten finishes, plus one 11th and a 20th placed finish. Included in which is a T6 and T4 in the last two years, shooting five rounds in the 60's which is terrific scoring round Augusta National. Casey spoke recently about the course playing to his strengths: "It certainly suits my game. I think the fact I've got a high ball flight; the ability to hit the driver a little bit right to left. I've always felt I'm a good lag putter, whether the stats show it or not, I've always felt comfortable on really fast greens."

He is happier off the course and feels more comfortable in himself and only he, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth have finished top 6 in each of the last two Masters and that places him in very exalted company. He has made top ten 40% of his starts here, top 11 in 50% and has finished top 12 in 47% of his last 17 golf outings, those numbers alone make him big value at odds of sub 25% to finish top 10.

 

2 units Paul Casey to finish top ten 4.0-4.20 general quote.......bigger in a place or two.
 

 

Last, but by no means least is Louis Oosthuizen who was very close to being an outright winning selection at a very juicy 50-1, but I have opted to back him in another market, where he has Matsuyama as opposition, but where I also feel it is close to impossible to see him out of contention come Sunday afternoon. He makes all our original criteria and in addition, is a hugely underrated player, already a major winner , he has also finished runner up in three others, losing in playoffs in two, including here in 2012.  He missed the cut the following year when he was under that Masters spotlight we have already discussed, but has finished 25-19-15th in the last three and looks primed to go close once more.

Like many top level golfers, he plays a limited schedule nowadays, very focused on peaking for the big events, he has played Houston in build up the last three years, but mised the cut each time and I think he feels that has been a distraction and he opted to pass on that this year to get a little more time at Augusta. He was third in the Phoenix Open in February and 5th in Perth the same month and has played solidly at four subsequent outings, without getting into real contention. Like many South African sportsmen he has an ideal temperament, is very relaxed and it is hard to put him off his game, regardless of what opponents, or conditions throw at him.

He has not had the high finish his performances at Augusta over the last three seasons have demanded, he was 9th in driving distance and 3rd for accuracy last season and is deceptively long for his slight build and he has twice led the field in two separate key categories and once in the all round stats. He went deep in the match play last year losing in the final which probably left him drained and his preparation this time round feels ideal for a long overdue second real challenge to win the green jacket. I understand that he is very pleased with some equipment changes in recent months with a new G driver that PING had modified significantly to improve feel in the shaft and reduce spin and a return to a former putter.