The last 10 seasons, that is 20 Championship games total, have played out thus ......

 

AFC: 8-2 in favour of the home team, with the two losses coming by 3 and 6 points, with five wins by double digit points (10-38).

 

NFC: also 8-2 in favour of the home team, with the two losses by 3 and 5 points, with five wins by 17-34 points.

 

11 games (55%) have finished with a total of 50+ points, four with as many as 62-68.

 

The team with the better regular season record is always hosting and most will have had a bye week in the postseason, so no surprise they have an 80% win record and that the 20% they have lost have all been close. The four road wins have seen 49-51-57-68 total points, so if you want to go down the underdog route, maybe you could look at the "overs" too.

 

The #3 seed is a "jinx" and since the switch to a seeding system for the playoffs in 1975 , only two have won the Super Bowl, the 1988 Redskins and the 2007 Colts. Whereas 26 #1 seeds have prevailed.

 

Since that win for the Peyton Manning led Colts, only four #3 seeds have even played in the Championship game and they have gone 0-4, but they do have a double chance this year to put that to bed and one is the Chiefs, who are looking to win a third Super Bowl in five years and play in a 4th decider.

 

If we want to back a #1 seed there is no need to fear giving up double digit points as 10/16 winners have done so and by an average of 22.1 points, which feels insane given what teams have gone through and how many games they have won to get to this stage, but maybe that explains those numbers, with disappointment and exhaustion coming into play.

 

Good luck!