NFL betting tip: Indianapolis Colts- Tennessee Titans
Oct 16, 2017
NFL: Indianapolis Colts- Tennessee Titans
These AFC South rivals are both 2-3 and looking to go level with the Jags and Texans on 3-3 with a win, the Colts have yet to play a divisional game, so this is huge for them, the other three teams have an identical 1-1 divisional record, so whomever wins tonight will take first place in the section.
Colts have owned the Titans , they have won the last 11 meetings and 16/17, including five in a row in Nashville, also winning 7/8 here, they scored 30+ points in five of those road wins and have swept the series for five straight years, despite not having a winning record in the last two. Tonight the Colts are priced at 4.14 to win and given an 8 point handicap start !
The reason is mainly down to the loss of quarterback Andrew Luck who has yet to make start this season, that and a pair of heavy road losses. However, both those defeats came all the way over on the West Coast and against teams with a winning record, the margin of each loss was a little scary, but young replacement QB Jacoby Brissett had only arrived a week before the first, so did not play in that, it takes probably 3-4 weeks to learn the plays as a minimum and he was thrown in at the deep end with what was a very small call sheet and ,as I say so often, in the NFL you have to have balance and need variety and when teams know what you are likely to do and the standard of coaching is sky high, it is hard to not only win, but even be productive. He also had to manage through his first three starts with a back up center, so didn't even have that assistance. He has had a month now to get in sync with his receivers and in his last start, had the regular center Ryan Kelly back and the difference was immediately noticeable .
Luck and Kelly were 4-1 on the road in their last five starts, three were against playoff bound teams and the other was a 34-26 win here v the Titans and they arrived with a 2-4 record. Brissett is not Luck, but he is only 23yo, was drafted by the Patriots and played three games for them last season, winning two, including a 27-0 defeat of the AFC South winning Texans, he has a 4-3 NFL record so we know he is not afraid to win and the importance of the center is always underrated and having Ryan Kelly available is huge, especially given the longer week to continue working together.
Brissett is starting to gel with T.Y Hilton and the receiver had 177 yards at an average of 25.3 last week and he will be his big play guy tonight, he was not reading his runs entirely before and even last week missed him when TY was open , so his numbers could have been massive, so very big potential there. Frank Gore and rookie Marlon Mack are also coming off solid running games and it does feel like things are coming together for the Colts and if they can move it on the ground today, it will set up the big play.
Yes, the Titans are favourites, but odds seem too lopsided, I am tempted by the 4.0 + for the upset, but will go with the h/c start. Titans also have QB issues, Marcus Mariota is still troubled by a hamstring and has practiced on a limited basis all week. He missed out last weekend and his back up Matt Cassel was sacked six times.
1.75 units Indianapolis Colts + 8 points 1.95 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro/ Vegas Line.
Good Luck.
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