La Liga : Celta Vigo- Las Palmas

 

I have spoken about both these two in recent weeks in a similar light, which is each probably picking and choosing which league games they will focus on and produce their best and that is almost certain to be home fixtures.
 

For Celta this had much to do with them having had a deep run in the Copa del Rey and also the Europa League, where they are still involved and ahead of their recent home game with Villarreal my notes included...........

Villa have found some form in recent starts, winning 4 of five and leading Real Madrid by two goals until late in the other, scoring eight in their last three outings and this is not a club known for their free scoring ways. They are back up to sixth and still within touching distance of a Champions League spot, but a point will not help that cause much, especially with Atletico finding a  late winner yesterday and it has to be all or nothing today. The visitors have had 8 days to rest and prepare for this, with Celta Vigo having had a battle royal with Krasnodar on Thursday, taking an injury time 2-1 lead that they will have to defend in four days time some 3,500km away in Russia. Vigo have no La Liga ambitions, it is all about the Europa League , but if there was one other game they would like to win, it would be their Galician derby game with La Coruna next Sunday, so, three games in eight days and today's is surely the least important for Celta and by some way. The hosts are resting Fontas, Jonny, Sisto and Guidetti who all started in midweek and have a couple of injuries on top and will play mindful of picking up others.

 

Villa did win that and Celta did indeed show more endeavour for their trip to La Coruna, where they won 1-0 immediately before the break.

We sided with LP for a reecnt home game with struggling Osasuna which they won 5-2 ...............

Motivation for mid table Las Palmas has been hard to come by and they have lost back to back home games, albeit against top 5 teams, they were previously unbeaten at home and I expect them to be desperate to return to winning ways today as they are now "just" 10 points above the drop zone, especially with 3 of their next four on the road and their home visitor in that sequence being Villarreal. They will be hugely buoyed by a 3-3 midweek draw at leaders Real Madrid on Wednesday, where they led by two with five minutes of regulation time remaining and can carry that goalscoring form to a comfortable win today. I see this similar to an early season visit from Granada that I previewed (link) and we can approach this similarly.
 

They have subsequently lost 4-3 away to Espanyol, beaten Villarreal at home and it is always, for me, in those games on the island we will see them at their best, or at least most disciplined, from here on in. On the road, we can expect an open approach and goals, they are a very offensive minded team anyway.
 

Celta have had 15 days to bask in the glow of their derby win, but everyone should now be rested and a first home league win in six weeks should be on the agenda, because after this, focus should turn to their EL quarter final with Racing Genk next midweek. They have a trip to Valencia this Thursday and they will not want to overly exert themselves there and the need to do so, will lessen with three points this evening.
 

The last seven h2h meetings have gone "over" with both scoring in each and games averaging 4.14 goals.
 

Both teams have defensive issues today and Celta will be without two full backs and both defensive midfielders in Marcelo Diaz and Nemanja Radoja and I feel goals are assured.
 

1.25 units "over" 3 goals 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.