NFL: Phiadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

 

This game was the stand out fixture over the opening two weeks from a stats points of view.
 

The Bears have struggled to post any kind of real numbers at Soldier Field for two seasons, last year they were 1-7 here and scored between 15-23 points in all of those starts, 20-23 in 7 of 8. If we also add in 2014, they are a dismal 3-13 at home, scoring between 14-23 points in 15 (!) and only once 24 or more (28).
 

Philadelphia have scored 20+ on the road in 14/16 games over the same period, 24+ (enough to usually beat the Bears) in 8/11.
 

Looking at team totals, Chicago are pitched at 23.5, a number they have beaten in just 6.25% of home games in the last two years, the Eagles @ 19.5 , a total they have bettered in 87.5 %. They kind of look wrong in the cold light of day, without even considering how Week 1 played out for these two.
 

The Bears opened with a 14-23 loss in Houston to the Texans, they led 14-10 at the half, but were held scoreless through the last two quarters. Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler was sacked five times, hurried several others and suffered 13 hits, Houston debut quarterback Brock Osweiler threw for 231 yards and two touchdowns, completed to eight different receivers and they also had 100+ yards on the ground and it is hard to find too many positives for the Bears.
 

Eagles went with a debut quarterback of their own in Carson Wentz in a 29-10 win over the Cleveland Browns (13-7 FH, 16-3 SH) and the 23 yo could hardly have been more impressive, he threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns and a passer rating of 101.0 (hard to be specific, but anything over 90 is basically considered "good"). Rookie coach Doug Pederson will be delighted with his team's 400 yard + day and whilst it should be tempered by the fact that the Browns are probably not very good and were losing on opening day for the 12th straight year, the Eagles could not have done much more.
 

Pederson has spent almost all his coaching career as a quarterback coach or offensive coordinator, he played quarterback too, so you would expect him to be able to spot a decent one and for all of his teams to be strong offensely. I feel he has been clever and also lucky in terms of personnel and has quickly been able to build a "replica" of the Chiefs offense he coached for three seasons. Wentz got a lot of attention in W1 and will have the eyes of the footballing world on him this evening, but doesn't look the type to freeze and he can lead the Eagles to 2-0.
 

Eagles would have probaly been a very narrow favourite on a neutral field, that is roughly what a field goal advantage at home equates to, but I have seen little home edge for the Bears in recent seasons and cannot agree with the odds today. Pre season form is pretty worthless and should almost always be discounted, but there is not a lot else to go on, so it is worth a basic check at this stage of the campiagn and if we include that, the Bears are ranked 29th in the NFL and that might not be too far off and in the two games at Soldier Field they scored a grand total of 7 points ! Eagles were a perfect 4/4 in pre season and put up 50 points in total in their two road wins.
 

The Eagles were much better against the run than stats implied last week, with a third of the Browns yards coming on the final drive once the game was won/lost, Philly had 65% possession in that game (NFL high), the Bears just 38% ( second lowest). We know in soccer, that is no longer a key stat, but in "football", it means the opposing offense is not on the field and is far more relevant.
 

Dangerous to read too much into one game, Bears do have a good Monday Night record too, but all things considered, I couldn't see this as much more than a "pick", so will have to take..........