La Liga: Valencia- Athletic Bilbao
We discussed both teams ahead of their midweek Europa League games, Athletic had most of the advantages going into their home game with Marseille ..............
Athletic Bilbao really make all the criteria for going deep and we know they will never want for trying, my notes ahead of the first leg can be read under the "good luck" sign off. They won that 1-0 courtesy of a stunning volley from Aritz Aduriz and will of course progress with a draw, but sitting back is not really in their nature, or playing to their strengths and their hugely passionate supporters will be urging them forward at every opportunity. They will be without suspended midfielder Benat Etxebarria and forward Inaki Williams this evening, but have strength in depth and more than able replacements. Marseille will take comfort from the fact that their road form has been stronger all season, but San Mames is never an easy place to come and play, it is like the cathedral of Basque football and with this match coming on the back of a derby loss to Real Sociedad last Sunday, I suspect we will see a hugely motivated host. Athletic have won next time out at home after their last four losses here (three were to Barce and Real Madrid), they actually include a win over Real and they scored eight in the two most recent (5 v Eibar and 3 v Valencia). They are going to get more space than usual at some stage with the visitors having to look for the win and OM would have no option but to throw caution to the wind, immediately if they fell behind this evening, or late in the game and this will surely get very stretched and play into the hands of the attacked minded and better technically home side, sooner or later.
OM get Benjamin Mendy and Rémy Cabella back, but remain without Lucas Ocampos, Dja Djedje and Lucas Silva (see all five in notes below), they have made the trip with a large squad and I remain to be convinced that they are 100% committed to the Europa League and that we might see some rotation, they play a cup game in six days time (best chance for silverware) and a tough league game at Ajaccio on Sunday, where defeat might well end any remaining top 3 hopes. That will be their eighth February fixture ( inside 26 days) ,French clubs are not really used to that level of competition ( Aug-Dec they played no more than six in any calendar month) and they played more than 30 minutes with ten men on Sunday. Athletic have only played four games so far this month and will surely have an edge in fresher and love for the competition.
However, they made very hard work of that and could easily have gone out of the competition.
Valencia had "already" qualified courtesy of a 6-0 home leg win over Rapid Wien, but still won the return 4-0 with all goals coming after the break, when they could have been forgiven for switching off, especially with the home side having far more motivation and Los Che introducing some youngsters ............
Valencia (in the first leg) were ruthless and 5-0 up inside 35 mintes and they could coast to a six goal win , they posted a third straight win for Gary Neville at Granada on Sunday and he would definitely want to continue to build some momentum, whilst being very mindful that they face a tricky home game with Athletic Bilbao on Sunday, which supporters would far sooner win than some (now) meaningless game in a far off land ! Several key players were left behind in Spain and five members of the youth team, all home grown in Konyk, Villalba, Lato, Rafa Mir and Tropi have made the trip in what was not a huge squad (19) and a couple of them are clearly going to see some game time. The quintet have exactly 5 minutes of La Liga action between them, four are teenagers, Tropi is a veteran at 20 yo, Fran Villalba is still not 18 for three months, but has already got a lot of EPL attention and has been dubbed the new David Silva, so you know without seeing him that he is talented and that there is not much of him !
Rapid will have been humiliated by the first leg result and surely keen to gain at least some token revenge, they are still going toe to toe with Salzburg for the Bundesliga title and have three league games in the next ten days where they can ill afford to slip up, or pick up any injuries and they themselves are witout a couple of players for tonight.
However, three things, the match is televised domestically, well over 35,000 tickets have been sold and they have a big obligation to that kind of loyalty and if I understand it correctly, Austria will move up to 15th on the UEFA five year coefficientcy rankings, if Rapid win tonight, that will ensure a second Champions League spot for 2017-18 and that would be huge for football in Austria and clearly Rapid too,as one of the big two Bundesliga teams currently. Neville and co are building up a head of steam and three points from this dress rehearsal for next month's Europa League meeting between the two ( they were drawn to face each other in the last 16), could take them into the top ten. They look in much better and more confident shape than Athletic right now and whilst the visitors get Benat Etxebarria back today which will help, Inaki Williams remains out and is joined on the sidelines by suspended attacking midfielder Raul Garcia and they look two big absences offensively. When Garcia plays 30 minutes or less, Bilbao are 4-2-8 conceding exactly 2.0 goals per game on average, in the last two seasons,without Williams Athletic have lost eight of 13 LaLiga starts and remember, we are talking about a top 6-8 team. I have to side with Valencia who have not lost here to Bilbao since 2007.
1.5 units Valencia -0.5 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
Athletic: Iraizoz, Bóveda, Elustondo, Laporte, Eraso, San José, Beñat, De Marcos, Iago Herrerín, Susaeta, X.Etxeita, Mikel Rico, Gurpegi, Muniain, Aduriz, Balenziaga, Sabin Merino, I.Lekue.
Good Luck.
