Ligue 1: Racing Club Lens- Montpellier

RCL are relegated and having long since begun preparing for a return to Ligue 2 , the experimentation is under way and 17 yo English defender Taylor Moore made his debut at right back last week and played all 90 minutes, Madiani and Ba , aged 19 and an inexperienced 21 respectively came off the bench and might see more action today. Lens have conceded 15 goals in their last five starts, including three in each of their last three outings and we can expect more errors defensively today, either down to youthful inexperience or just not being good enough for this level. I must admit to being surprised how tamely they have surrendered their hard fought for Ligue 1 status and we can expect huge changes ahead of next season.

Today they are without a whole host of players including experienced central defender Ahmed Kantari (conceded 12 in the five games he has missed, including a 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture), left back Ludovic Baal  (conceded at LEAST three goals in the last six starts he has missed) and an entire midfield's worth of players in Lalaina Nomenjajahary, Baptiste Guillame, Benjamin Bourigeaud and suspended Pierrick Valdiva. They could field a backline with average age of 20-21 and players out of position in midfield and they were already not very good !

But hold fire for one second, as Montpellier have very little to play for , have not scored in four away starts and are themselves missing several key players, namely veteran centre back Hilton who has played every game this season, he missed eight in 2013/14 ( 0-4-4) and his central defensive partner Danel Congre ( missed seven this season 4-0-3), which compounds the loss of Hilton and that goes double as goalkeeper Geoffrey Jourdren is also missing, I have no real problem with his replacement Jonathan Ligali, but they will have a 16 yo on the bench and Jourdren did miss the 3-3 draw earlier this season.

Easy to see goals again today, despite Montpellier being so goal shy on the road recently, they will surely dominate midfield and when they do score on the road, they can often cut lose, witness the four goals at both Lorient and Rennes and three at Metz, but they are missing their defensive spine and might struggle to keep a clean sheet themselves. We have to take it on trust that the visitors will give of their best and that is never a given in certain leagues at this stage of the season, unlike the English leagues, but they look to have a big edge in class ..... I will take a double bet.....

1.5 units Montpellier -0.75 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.

1.25 units "over" 3 goals 2.78 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.....obvious alternative would be "over" 2.5 goals 2.06 asian line/Sportmarket.

Lens: Belon, Ru.Riou – Ba, Boulenger, Gbamin, Landre, Lecoeuche, Moore, Sylla – Cyprien, El Jadeyaoui, Le Moigne, Chavarria – A.Coulibaly, Madiani, Touzghar.

Montpellier: Ligali, Bertaud – Skhiri, Gissi, Tiéné, El Kaoutari, Deplagne – J.Marveaux, J.Martin, Lasne, Saihi, Wüthrich – Mounier, Bérigaud, Barrios, So.Camara, Bakar, Ribelin.

Good Luck.