Ligue 2 draws are running at 38.18% through 11 rounds, which equates to odds of 2.62, it was a similar story last season 37% after 10 rounds, but down to sub 32% by Christmas, a figure it stayed at through the rest of the campaign, this is a standard trend in this tightest of leagues with matches opening up quite a bit through the second series of ten games and we can expect that to be the case over the next couple of months and as a result, the number of goals, which are already some 0.31 per game down on last season, to increase.

We are now 22 rounds in, the second series of 11 games saw draws drop to 28.18% down 10% and goals increase by 0.33 per game and the more open nature of  games is further highlighted by the number of away wins also having risen. 
 

Overall ,numbers in terms of 1X2 are now about where we would expect them to be, these stats have a remarkable ability to even out over a season and we should always keep an eye on them. Goals are still running a little low and the trend for more should continue for the time being.

 

Arles -Nimes

 

The visitors have run into a little form, they are unbeaten in five and have won their last two on the road, scoring six goals. This is kind of par for the course with them as they were the strongest non promoted team in Ligue 2 through the second half of the campaign in 2012-13 and last year collected 59% of points after the half way stage to haul themselves out of the drop zone. They are a team who get stronger through the second half of the season and we should keep an eye on them for the next month or two.
 

Earlier in the season I wrote .....They (Nimes) managed to secure their safety with a bit to spare and with coach Marsiglia having had the whole summer to switch things around, Gragnic and Bouby have left with one or two others and in have come a mixture of experience and youth .Toifilou Maoulida has scored a sackful of goals in the top flight, but even at veteran stage knows where the back of the net is and has scored 13 goals in each of his last two campaigns at this level. Feteh Harek has played 57 games for Bastia in the top flight over the last two seasons and was virtually ever present in their two promotion campaigns. Fabien Barillon was Istres most important defender and wanted by several teams, Argentine Pedro Galván is a dark horse, he has signed from Israeli football, where he scored a mountain of goals from midfield and Larry Azouni is a French U20 international on loan from Marseille. They look to have a few goals in them and I am keen to see Galvan and Maoulida at this level.

Marsiglia moved on over a difference of opinion several months ago and has been replaced by José Pasqualetti (pictured) who did a wonderful job for many years in terribly difficult circumstances at Istres, that would also not have helped contribute to a fast start and it has taken time for everything to come together.

Maoulida, Harek and Barillon have all been virtual ever presents and the team slowly improved based around their vast experience. Riad Nouri has built a real understanding with seven goal striker Maoulida and is on course for his best season in several years, he is another with a big Istres connection and this is a together group who know each other well, with a very nice mixture of youthful potential and veteran knowledge.
 

Arles are fighting for survival and are effectively 10 points from safety and in a position where they are going to have to look for all three points in every game. Ahead of their 3-1 home defeat to Angers last month I wrote ....They (Arles) will have to throw caution to the wind from now on in to have any chance of survival, but in truth, the third tier awaits. The lack of goals is the major concern and when they open up, especially against the stronger teams they concede too freely, they have conceded two or more to the other promotion hopefuls they have played at home, Sochaux, Dijon and Troyes and in the reverse fixture in Angers. They like to set up defensively and are fine if they score first, as they can stick with that game plan, but fall behind and plan B is missing and they do not have enough goals in them to trouble the stronger, inform teams and I put Nimes in that category and feel that too much emphasis has been put on the hosts dire need, in setting the odds for this game.
 

 

Arles-Avignon : Maraval, Delac - Phojo, Bocaly, Bonne, Givet, Gigot - Ba, Reale, Rodriguez, Blanc, Savanier - Psaume, Domoraud, Cissé, Koné, Oudrhiri.
 

Nimes: Michel, Gallon - Barrillon, Cordoval, Harek, Marin, Sartre - Briançon, Hsissane, Lacourt, Parpeix, Robail - Koura, Maoulida, Mendy, Nouri.

 

This is a local derby game and one which usually produces goals, both teams have scored in nine of the last ten h2h meetings , a tenth BTS looks reasonably priced @ circa 2.0, but I will stick with the visitors.
 

Nimes have averaged 2.0 points per game from the five road games in which they have gone in level at the break.

 

Angers- Tours

 

We previewed Angers last home game and those notes are reproduced in full below the "good luck" sign off . They lost that 2-1, but were very unfortunate , they immediately got back on track with a win at relegation haunted Chateauroux last week and that was noteworthy as it can on the back of a Monday night game and that is notoriously difficult to overcome in Ligue 2. Angers clearly have their eye on one of the top three spots and with one or two of the teams above them showing signs of faltering, Angers free scoring ways and desire to always hunt for three points, could easily take them close. They are without 14 goal striker Jonathan Kodjia tonight, which is obviously a huge loss, but new signings Jean-Jacques Pierre and Thomas Mangani come into the squad.

Angers did score three in an away win at Orleans in the sole start that Kodjia has missed this season, with Charles Diers scoring twice and Sacha Clemence playing the lone striker role, they can obviously still pose an offensive threat in his absence, but he has scored 9 of their 16 home goals.
 

Tours let us done last week with a 2-0 home defeat to Ajaccio when I wrote .....
 

 

They won that 3-0 (!), subsequently took Ligue1 highflyers St Etienne into extra time, again scoring three goals, won at Valenciennes and have only lost to runaway leaders Troyes and there is no shame in that. They are now out of the drop zone, albeit only on goal difference and will be keen to stay there, they are 5-0-5 at home , which is kind of perfect for betting purposes. They are playing as well offensively as anyone apart from perhaps Troyes and the odds makers have not really caught up with this yet.

 

Despite .......

 

 

Good Luck.